US futures slip 0.28% as a Hormuz strike lifts crude 3.55% and energy becomes the only sector bid
Sentiment: mixed S&P 500 futures: -0.28%
S&P 500 futures traded at 7,700 at 8:39am ET on 31 August 2026, down 0.28%, after US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday and sent WTI crude up 3.55% to $86.36. SAIC.US leads the pre-market at +8.21% after reporting quarterly earnings of $3.01 a share against a $2.31 consensus. Energy is the only S&P sector higher before the open, while gold falls 0.63% and high yield credit holds at -0.06%.
Overnight drivers
- Strait of Hormuz: WTI +3.55% to $86.36 and Brent +3.00% to $88.70. US Central Command said the Revolutionary Guard was preparing to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the strait, one week after US forces finished clearing mines from its shipping lanes. Brent printed $90.79 at the overnight high and has given back $2.09 since.
- XLE.US +1.77% and XOP.US +2.28% before the open, against XLU.US -1.31% and XLK.US -0.30%. Tanker operator TNK.US +5.68% is the largest single energy move.
- UAL.US -1.72%, AAL.US -1.40%, DAL.US -1.27% and LUV.US -0.69%. Jet fuel repriced with crude and the airline group JETS.US sits at -0.42%.
- VIX 15.25, up 5.68% from Friday's 14.43 close, and nothing else followed it: defense ETF ITA.US -0.53%, high yield credit HYG.US -0.06%.
- September rate pricing near 56% on CME FedWatch, up from roughly 30% before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole on Friday. The 10-year yield is 4.73%, up 1 basis point, and the dollar index is 99.54, down 0.17%.
Friday's close and the August tally
- S&P 500: 7,711.76 (-0.25%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,402.42 (-0.52%)
- Dow: 53,559.99 (-0.02%)
- Russell 2000: 2,972.37 (-1.39%)
August ends today with the S&P 500 up 2.96% for the month, the Nasdaq up 4.05%, the Dow up 2.05% and the Russell 2000 up 1.40%. Warsh told the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday that "while this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved". The Russell 2000 fell 1.39% that session against the Dow's 0.02%, a 137 basis point spread across the cap scale.
MRVL.US fell 10.28% on Friday after Marvell reported record quarterly revenue of $2.739 billion, up 37% year on year, and lifted fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to about $12 billion from $11.5 billion, while supplying little detail on its fiscal 2028 outlook. NVDA.US fell 4.57% in the same session and trades 0.52% higher pre-market.
Overnight Asia and Europe
- Nikkei 225: 66,311.93 (-0.14%)
- Hang Seng: 25,566.99 (-0.07%)
- Shanghai Composite: 3,986.30 (+0.86%)
- KOSPI: 6,820.02 (+0.46%)
- DAX: 26,406.26 (-0.62%)
- CAC 40: 8,416.90 (+0.19%)
- STOXX 600: 655.01 (-0.02%)
Shanghai +0.86% was the strongest Asian close and the Nikkei the weakest at -0.14%, both sessions trading after the Larak Island strike. London is shut for the UK Summer Bank Holiday, so the FTSE 100 stands at Friday's 10,824.26 until Tuesday and European turnover runs on Frankfurt and Paris alone. The DAX at -0.62% is the softest European print of the morning.
Pre-market movers
| Ticker | Pre-market | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SAIC.US | +8.21% | Quarterly EPS $3.01 against $2.31 consensus, revenue $1.88 billion |
| TNK.US | +5.68% | Tanker rates bid on the sea mine threat to Hormuz transits |
| APA.US | +2.74% | Crude +3.55%, with DVN.US +2.41% on the same move |
| HAL.US | +2.53% | Oil services, alongside SLB.US +1.76% |
| MPC.US | +2.34% | Refiner, with VLO.US +1.99% and PSX.US +1.60% |
| CVX.US | +2.32% | Integrated major tracking Brent +3.00% |
| XOM.US | +2.15% | Second integrated major, COP.US +2.11% alongside |
| UAL.US | -1.72% | Jet fuel is the largest variable cost in the airline model |
| AAL.US | -1.40% | Second airline decline, DAL.US -1.27% on the same input |
| MSFT.US | -0.92% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven |
Economic calendar (ET)
- Mon 31 Aug: no scheduled US releases. August month end.
- Tue 1 Sep, 10:00: ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, JOLTS job openings for July, July construction spending
- Wed 2 Sep, 08:15: ADP employment for August. 14:00: Federal Reserve Beige Book
- Thu 3 Sep, 08:30: weekly jobless claims and the July trade balance. 10:00: ISM Services PMI for August
- Fri 4 Sep, 08:30: August employment report. Consensus is 45,000 payrolls after a 23,000 decline in July, with the unemployment rate seen at 4.2% from 4.1%
Earnings this week
- Tue 1 Sep, after the close: PANW.US and DELL.US
- Wed 2 Sep, after the close: AVGO.US
- Thu 3 Sep, after the close: LULU.US
What to watch
- Brent's overnight range of $88.29 to $90.79 brackets what the market assigns to a Hormuz disruption. Iran has said it will retaliate for the Larak Island strike.
- XLE.US +1.77% against XLU.US -1.31% is a 308 basis point spread between the best and worst S&P sector before the open.
- GLD.US fell 3.24% on Friday and is a further 0.35% lower this morning. Crude is taking the supply shock bid and bullion is not.
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