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S&P 500 Falls 0.45% as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007 Ahead of Fed Decision

Oil surges past $105 a barrel on Middle East supply threats while Skyworks and Qorvo jump on merger progress.

Bearish2 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

S&P 5007,586-0.45%
NASDAQ25,982-0.78%
Dow52,093-0.63%
VIX17.2+0.58%
Russell 20002,870-0.76%
US Dollar99.65+0.26%
US 10Y4.996+0.71%

Top gainers

  • SWKS.USSkyworks Solutions+13.55%
  • TEM.USTempus AI+10.67%
  • FPS.USForgent Power Solutions+9.50%
  • CAI.USCaris Life Sciences+9.40%
  • QRVO.USQorvo+9.34%

Top losers

  • ENVA.USEnova International-23.43%
  • ALHC.USAlignment Healthcare-19.86%
  • ARWR.USArrowhead Pharmaceuticals-12.40%
  • WING.USWingstop-12.09%
  • CRCL.USCircle Internet Group-11.41%

S&P 500 Falls 0.45% as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007 Ahead of Fed Decision

The S&P 500 closed at 7,585.73, down 34.25 points or 0.45%, its second straight losing session. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.78% to 25,981.57 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 328.09 points, or 0.63%, to 52,093.11. The Russell 2000 dropped 0.76% to 2,870.29 and the CBOE Volatility Index rose 0.58% to 17.20.

What moved the index

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.996%, touching an intraday high near 5.02% and its highest level since 2007, a day ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday. Traders priced roughly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Brent crude traded near $108 a barrel and WTI near $105 after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline and Iranian-backed Houthi forces launched fresh attacks in the Middle East. Higher borrowing costs and rising energy prices pressured rate-sensitive and consumer-facing shares through the session. Investors also grew more cautious after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay on AI safety, a topic that circulated among industry leaders during the day.

Session highlights

The S&P 500 opened near 7,601, climbed to an intraday high of 7,612 in the first half hour, then drifted lower through the afternoon to a low of 7,576 before a small late recovery into the close. The US Dollar Index rose 0.26% to 99.65.

Sector scorecard

Energy was the only sector with a clear gain: the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 2.17% on the oil price move, and materials (XLB) added 0.48%. Consumer discretionary (XLY) led the declines, down 1.75%, followed by utilities (XLU), down 1.20%, and communication services (XLC), down 0.90%. Technology (XLK) held up better than the broader market, down 0.29%, while health care (XLV) was little changed, down 0.05%.

Top movers

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS.US) jumped 13.55% to $90.00 after CEO Phil Brace told an investor conference that the company's $22 billion merger with Qorvo has reached its final stages, with two regulatory jurisdictions still to clear. Qorvo (QRVO.US) rose 9.34% to $118.06 on the same update. Forgent Power Solutions (FPS.US) gained 9.50% to $31.36 after reporting fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $462 million, up 94% year over year, and a backlog of $3.0 billion. Tempus AI (TEM.US) added 10.67% to $68.85 and Caris Life Sciences (CAI.US) rose 9.40% to $28.50.

On the downside, Enova International (ENVA.US) dropped 23.43% to $173.61 after withdrawing its regulatory applications for the proposed acquisition of Grasshopper Bancorp, even as the company reaffirmed 2026 guidance and said it would accelerate share buybacks. Alignment Healthcare (ALHC.US) fell 19.86% to $10.37, extending a decline that began with a securities-litigation investigation disclosed a day earlier. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR.US) lost 12.40% to $70.67, Wingstop (WING.US) fell 12.09% to $100.84, and Circle Internet Group (CRCL.US) dropped 11.41% to $86.30 after reports that ARK Invest trimmed its stake ahead of a Senate vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

Next session catalysts (ET)

Trip.com Group (TCOM.US) reports second-quarter results after today's close, with a call scheduled for 8:00pm ET. Evolution Petroleum (EPM.US) also reports after the close today. The Federal Reserve's policy decision and press conference are due Wednesday afternoon, alongside an updated dot plot.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →