US Pre-Market, 15 September 2026: S&P 500 Futures 0.17% Lower as the 10-Year Yield Touches 5.02%, Highest Since 2007

Sentiment: bearish S&P 500 futures: -0.17% | Nasdaq 100 futures: -0.15% | Dow futures: -0.30%

S&P 500 futures are 0.17% lower and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.15% lower at 8:34am ET on 15 September 2026 after the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.02%, its highest since 2007, as the FOMC starts a meeting where fed funds futures price about a 93% chance of a hike. PLAY.US is down 13.70% to $7.31 after Dave & Buster's missed fiscal second-quarter revenue and earnings estimates. WTI is 1.54% higher at US$102.95 with Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline still offline, and the New York Fed's September manufacturing index fell 13 points to 7.6 against a 14.1 forecast.

Overnight drivers

• 10-year yield at 5.02%: The yield rose about 3 bps on Tuesday to 5.02%, above its 2023 peak and the highest since 2007, according to Bloomberg, after closing Monday at 4.961%. CME FedWatch prices about a 93% chance of a 25 bp hike at Wednesday's decision, which would be the first increase in more than three years, and futures price roughly 90 bps of further hikes by June 2027. MSFT.US is 1.04% lower pre-market and GOOGL.US 1.00% lower.
• WTI +1.54% to US$102.95: Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which carries crude to the Red Sea and around the Strait of Hormuz, is still offline after drone attacks. Houthi forces launched new attacks on Saudi Arabia on Monday, and Gulf states postponed planned talks with Iran, Reuters reported. The US Dollar Index is 0.24% higher at 99.63, its highest in two weeks, and gold futures are 0.92% lower at US$4,311.90/oz.
• AI slowdown debate, day three: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at the All-In Summit on Monday that the idea of AI causing human extinction is fiction, and told President Trump on a call that "we're not going to let" a slowdown happen, TechCrunch reported. Microsoft published an AI code of conduct that says humans must "retain meaningful control". SMH.US is 0.65% higher pre-market after a 4.75% fall on Monday.
• Empire State index at 7.6: The New York Fed's September general business conditions index fell from 20.6 in August, below the 14.1 forecast. New orders read 2.0, shipments -3.2 and prices paid 63.1. S&P 500 futures were 0.13% lower at 8:30am ET, before the release, and 0.17% lower at 8:34am ET.

Monday's close

• S&P 500: 7,619.98 (-0.48%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,186.41 (-0.56%)
• Dow: 52,421.20 (-0.29%)
• Russell 2000: 2,892.24 (-0.40%)
• VIX: 17.10 at Monday's close, 17.00 (-0.58%) at 8:34am ET

The S&P 500 fell 0.48% on Monday as the PHLX Semiconductor index lost 5.86% after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a slower pace of AI development. Security software stocks rose, with ZS.US up 16.52% and CRWD.US up 13.85%. The 10-year yield reached 5.012% at 10:20am ET on Monday and closed at 4.961%.

Overnight Asia and Europe

• KOSPI: 6,627.26 (-0.85%)
• Hang Seng: 24,667.24 (-1.00%)
• Shanghai Composite: 3,864.28 (-0.54%)
• Nikkei 225: 63,484.10 (-0.01%)
• STOXX 600: 635.08 (-0.14%)
• DAX: 25,417.50 (-0.09%)
• CAC 40: 8,100.76 (-0.21%)
• FTSE 100: 10,665.94 (-0.30%)

Foreign investors sold 1.57 trillion won of Korean shares, their fifth straight session of net selling, and the KOSPI moved from a gain to a loss after 2pm local time. Samsung Electronics lost 0.2% and SK hynix 0.41%. China's August industrial production rose 5.2% from a year earlier against a 4.8% forecast, and fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the year to date. All four major European indices are lower, with the FTSE 100 down the most at 0.30%.

Pre-market movers

Prices at about 8:33am ET. Of the 227 large US stocks with a pre-market print, 85 are higher and 142 lower.

• PLAY.US -13.70% to $7.31. Dave & Buster's reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $544.1m against a $556.8m consensus, and an adjusted loss of $0.27 a share against an expected $0.19 profit.
• ASML.US +3.00% to $1,622.37, the largest gain among the 250 biggest US-listed stocks, after a 7.25% fall on Monday. LRCX.US is 2.12% higher, KLAC.US 1.82% and AMAT.US 1.66%. No company announcement found.
• INTC.US +1.50%, MRVL.US +1.15%, MU.US +1.02% and NVDA.US +0.52%. The four fell between 3.36% and 7.32% on Monday.
• FTNT.US -2.90% after a 9.04% gain on Monday. CRWD.US is 1.94% lower, ZS.US 1.84% and PANW.US 1.82%.
• SAP.US -2.49%, NOW.US -2.40%, ACN.US -2.36% and ADBE.US -2.00%, one session after gains of between 5.30% and 7.41%.
• LLY.US +1.62% to $1,155.60, the largest gain among companies worth more than $1 trillion. No Tuesday announcement found. AAPL.US is 0.53% lower and META.US 0.54% lower.

Commodities, rates and the dollar

WTI at US$102.95 is 1.04% above Monday's 5:45pm ET print of US$101.89, while gold has lost US$40 since Monday's settlement.

US economic calendar today (ET)

• Tuesday 15 September, 8:30am: Empire State manufacturing for September, released at 7.6 against a 14.1 forecast. The FOMC's two-day meeting begins.
• Wednesday 16 September, 8:30am: August retail sales, and August import and export prices. 2:00pm: FOMC decision and new projections, then Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.
• Thursday 17 September, 8:30am: Weekly jobless claims, August housing starts and the September Philadelphia Fed index.
• Friday 18 September, 9:15am: August industrial production. The Bank of Japan also decides on Friday.

What to watch

• The 10-year yield at 5.02% against Monday's 4.961% close, one day before the FOMC decision.
• SMH.US at +0.65% pre-market after Monday's 4.75% fall.
• 85 of 227 large stocks higher pre-market, with S&P 500 futures 0.17% lower.
• WTI at US$102.95 and the restart date for the East-West pipeline, which Saudi Arabia has not given.

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