US Pre-Market, 16 September 2026: Nasdaq 100 Futures 0.63% Higher as August Retail Sales Rise 1.2% Before the Fed Decision

Sentiment: mixed S&P 500 futures: +0.33% | Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.63% | Dow futures: +0.23%

S&P 500 futures are 0.33% higher and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.63% higher at 8:33am ET on 16 September 2026 after August retail sales rose 1.2% against a 0.8% forecast, and fed funds futures price about a 92% chance of a 25 bp hike at the 2:00pm ET decision. INTC.US is 3.60% higher at $100.64 after Reuters reported Intel is in talks with SK hynix to make memory chips at Intel's planned Ohio plant. WTI is 2.15% lower at US$103.55 after industry data showed a 7.1 million barrel crude build, one day after the 10-year Treasury yield passed 5.04% intraday, its highest since 2007.

Overnight drivers

• Retail sales +1.2%: The Census Bureau's advance estimate put August retail and food services sales at $773.9 billion, up 1.2% from July and 6.0% from August 2025. July was revised from -0.6% to -0.5%. Investing.com's consensus was +0.8%, and +0.5% for sales excluding autos.
• Fed decision at 2:00pm ET: CME FedWatch prices about a 92% chance of a 25 bp hike to a 3.75% to 4.00% target range, the first increase since July 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh holds his press conference at 2:30pm ET, and the Fed publishes new projections with the statement.
• WTI -2.15% to US$103.55: An industry report showed US crude inventories rose 7.1 million barrels in the week to 11 September against an expected draw of about 1.6 million, CNBC reported. WTI rose 4.2% on Tuesday after Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, whose East-West pipeline remains shut.
• INTC.US +3.60% to $100.64: The Reuters report said SK hynix could lease Intel's Ohio plant. Intel closed 0.05% lower on Tuesday. SKHY.US is 3.32% higher, ASML.US 2.79%, MRVL.US 2.12% and AMD.US 1.85%, and SMH.US is up 1.34%.

Tuesday's close

• S&P 500: 7,585.73 (-0.45%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 25,981.57 (-0.78%)
• Dow: 52,093.11 (-0.63%)
• Russell 2000: 2,870.29 (-0.76%)
• VIX: 17.20 at Tuesday's close, 16.78 (-2.44%) at 8:33am ET

The S&P 500 posted its sixth decline in seven sessions on Tuesday as the 10-year yield reached above 5.04% before closing at 4.996%. XLY.US fell 1.75%, the weakest sector fund, and XLE.US rose 2.17%. SWKS.US gained 13.55% after Skyworks said its merger with Qorvo had reached its final stages, and ENVA.US lost 23.43% after Enova withdrew its applications to buy Grasshopper Bancorp. COIN.US fell 10.10% after a Senate cloture vote on the Clarity Act failed, Yahoo Finance reported.

Overnight Asia and Europe

• KOSPI: 6,717.97 (+1.37%)
• Shanghai Composite: 3,891.60 (+0.71%)
• Nikkei 225: 63,923.00 (+0.69%)
• STOXX 600: 638.19 (+0.63%)
• FTSE 100: 10,727.59 (+0.65%)
• CAC 40: 8,136.46 (+0.57%)
• DAX: 25,493.44 (+0.36%)

The KOSPI rose 1.37%, the largest gain among the three Asian closes. All four European indices are higher at 8:33am ET, led by the FTSE 100 at 0.65%. The Bank of Japan decides on Friday.

Pre-market movers

Prices at about 8:33am ET. Of 228 large US stocks and ETFs with a pre-market print, 154 are higher and 71 lower.

• TCOM.US +4.78% to $41.13, the largest gain among the stocks swept. Trip.com reported second-quarter revenue of $2.31 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.07 a share after Tuesday's close, with a net loss of $363 million.
• BE.US +3.85% to $268.94. No company announcement found.
• CNQ.US -2.18% and EOG.US -2.18%, the two largest falls in the sweep, with COP.US -1.22% and CVX.US -1.14%. The four rose between 2.44% and 3.50% on Tuesday.
• IBM.US -1.77%, NOW.US -1.48%, CRWD.US -1.31% and ADBE.US -1.01%.
• META.US +0.99% and NVDA.US +0.89%. AAPL.US is unchanged at $331.35 and MSFT.US 0.28% lower.

Commodities, rates and the dollar

Gold futures are US$47 above Tuesday's settlement, while WTI is US$2.28 below it.

US economic calendar today (ET)

• Wednesday 16 September, 8:30am: August retail sales, released at +1.2% against a +0.8% forecast.
• Wednesday 16 September, 10:30am: EIA weekly crude inventories. 2:00pm: FOMC decision and projections. 2:30pm: Chair Warsh's press conference.
• Thursday 17 September, 8:30am: Weekly jobless claims, August housing starts and the September Philadelphia Fed index.
• Friday 18 September, 9:15am: August industrial production, plus the Bank of Japan decision.

What to watch

• The 2:00pm ET statement and projections, with fed funds futures at about 92% for a 25 bp hike.
• The 10-year yield against Tuesday's 4.996% close after a 1.2% retail sales print.
• The 10:30am ET EIA inventory figure against the 7.1 million barrel industry build.
• SMH.US at +1.34% pre-market, with 154 of 228 large stocks and ETFs higher.

Context only. Not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.