US Futures Slip as 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Level Since 2004

Sentiment: bearish S&P 500 futures: -0.44%

S&P 500 futures ES=F are down 0.44% to 7,738 and Nasdaq futures NQ=F are off 0.84% to 30,505 in Thursday premarket trading, extending Wednesday's selloff after the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.39%, its highest level since July 2004, on a hotter than expected flash PMI print. Micron MU.US fell 2.2% premarket and SanDisk SNDK.US dropped 3.7% on profit-taking after last week's chip rally, even as Western Digital WDC.US gained 2.0% against the rest of the memory group. Oil added to the inflation pressure behind the bond selloff, with WTI crude up 1.6% to $93.67 a barrel on the seven-month US-Iran standoff and a Trump-backed diesel export ban.

Overnight drivers

• Bond rout: The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% on September 23, 2026, its highest level since July 2004, after S&P Global's flash PMI showed services activity at 58.7, a five-year high, and manufacturing at 56.7, a four-year high. Traders now price better than a 75% chance of an October rate hike from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's FOMC, up from about 49% a week earlier.
• Oil and Iran: WTI crude is up 1.6% to $93.67 and Brent is up 1.9% to $105.04. The seven-month US-Iran standoff and a Trump-backed diesel export ban are raising supply concerns, and the same energy move is feeding the inflation narrative pushing yields higher.
• Overnight Asia and Europe: Nikkei 225 +0.76% to 65,514, Hang Seng -0.29%, DAX -0.18%, STOXX 600 -0.12%. Investors are treating it as a low-conviction session ahead of today's US data.
• Chip stocks split: Micron MU.US -2.2% and SanDisk SNDK.US -3.7% premarket on profit-taking after the recent rally, while Western Digital WDC.US +2.0% moves against the rest of the group.

Overnight Wall Street

The S&P 500 closed at 7,706.03 on September 23, 2026, down 0.75%, as the yield spike outweighed the strong PMI data.

• S&P 500: 7,706.03 (-0.75%)
• Nasdaq: 26,936.04 (-1.13%)
• Dow: 51,511.59 (-0.68%)
• VIX: 16.02 (+5.54%)

All three major averages fell Wednesday, with the Nasdaq the session's laggard as rate-sensitive growth names led declines. The Russell 2000 underperformed further, down 1.77%, because small caps carry more floating-rate debt than the large-cap averages. The VIX added 5.54% to 16.02, still below its long-run average but its sharpest one-day rise in several weeks.

Rates, oil and the dollar

The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5.1% this week, its first time above that level in 19 years, extending the same selloff that pushed the 30-year to a 2004 high. Every point on the Treasury curve except the two-year now trades above 5%, a level last seen broadly during the 2007-08 financial crisis.

• 10-year Treasury yield: above 5.1%, highest since 2007
• 30-year Treasury yield: 5.39% (highest since July 2004)
• WTI crude: $93.67 (+1.6%)
• Brent crude: $105.04 (+1.9%)
• US Dollar Index: 101.28 (+0.18%)

Higher long-end yields and firmer oil both raise the cost of capital and the inflation outlook heading into Thursday's data, pressuring rate-sensitive sectors ahead of the open.

Key themes for the US open

• Memory chips: MU.US -2.2% and SNDK.US -3.7% premarket on profit-taking; WDC.US +2.0% diverges from the rest of the group.
• Retail earnings: Costco COST.US is up 0.6% premarket ahead of its fiscal fourth-quarter report after Thursday's close; Darden DRI.US is roughly flat ahead of its own report.
• Small caps: The Russell 2000 fell 1.77% Wednesday, underperforming the S&P 500 as rate-sensitive names lagged.
• Volatility: The VIX rose 5.54% to 16.02, still below its long-run average but its sharpest single-day move in weeks.

Economic calendar today (ET)

• 8:30am ET: Initial jobless claims
• 8:30am ET: Housing starts and building permits
• 10:00am ET: New home sales

Durable goods orders are due Friday, not today; today's calendar is a labor-market and housing read that could reinforce or ease this week's rate-hike repricing.

What to watch

• Whether the 8:30am ET jobless claims print cools or adds to the rate-hike repricing driving this week's bond selloff.
• Memory-chip names MU.US, SNDK.US and WDC.US diverging premarket; watch whether the group re-converges at the open.
• Costco COST.US and Darden DRI.US reporting earnings after Thursday's close.

Context only. Not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.