S&P 500 Slips 0.25% as the 10-Year Yield Hits 5.29% Despite a Cooler PCE Print
S&P 500 close: 7,651.54 (-0.25%) Nasdaq / Dow: 26,861.06 (+0.24%) / 50,906.05 (-0.86%) Sentiment: mixed
The S&P 500 closed at 7,651.54 on 30 September 2026, down 0.25%, after giving up an intraday gain of about 0.66% as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.8 bps to 5.29% even though PCE inflation came in below forecasts. LQDA.US fell 57.19% after a Delaware federal court found its inhaled treprostinil product Yutrepia infringed two claims of a United Therapeutics patent, and UTHR.US rose 12.55% on the same ruling. Core PCE of 3.0% year on year against 3.3% expected cut priced odds of an October Fed rate hike to roughly 37% to 40% from above 70%.
What moved the index
The S&P 500 lost 19.30 points, or about 25 bps, with technology the only one of the 11 sector SPDR funds to finish higher.
- Technology: XLK.US +0.64%, worth about +21 bps at roughly a third of index weight. AAPL.US +1.10%, MSFT.US +0.77% and NVDA.US +0.51% kept the Nasdaq positive at +0.24%.
- Financials: XLF.US -1.13%, worth about -15 bps. Card networks led the decline with MA.US -2.15% and V.US -1.79%, while JPM.US lost 1.24%.
- Health care: XLV.US -1.35%, worth about -12 bps. LLY.US fell 2.33% and UNH.US 2.10%.
- Industrials and staples: XLI.US -1.27% and XLP.US -1.53%, worth about -18 bps combined. WMT.US dropped 2.70% and packaged food names GIS.US and CAG.US each lost close to 4.9%.
Together these four groups net to about -24 bps of the 25 bps decline. Sector weights here are approximate; the other six sector funds closed between -0.06% (energy) and -1.04% (real estate), so the residual reflects small, broad declines rather than a missing driver.
Session highlights
- 7,721.74 was the S&P 500 intraday high after the PCE release; the index then closed at its session low of 7,651.54.
- 3.0% core PCE year on year versus 3.3% expected, with headline PCE at 3.4% versus 3.7%. Both monthly readings printed 0.2% against 0.3% forecasts.
- 5.29% on the US 10-year yield, up 3.8 bps on the day, even as the PCE data cut rate-hike odds.
- 90,000 private jobs were added in September, above the 75,000 expected, with base wages up 3.2% year on year.
- 443.87 points came off the Dow (-0.86%). On its price weighting, GS.US (-1.73%) and CAT.US (-1.92%) cost about 94 points each, and UNH.US (-2.10%) about 47.
- 2,796.86 on the Russell 2000 (-0.39%); the VIX rose 1.87% to 16.34.
Sector scorecard
- Best: Technology (XLK.US +0.64%)
- Worst: Consumer staples (XLP.US -1.53%)
- Dispersion (best minus worst): 2.17 pts
- Semiconductors split: SMH.US +0.35% overall, with FORM.US +9.59% and ACMR.US +7.02% against AVGO.US -1.10% and CBRS.US -8.87%.
Top movers
| Ticker | Move | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| UTHR.US | +12.55% | Won Delaware patent ruling against LQDA.US on inhaled treprostinil |
| ROG.US | +10.73% | Investor Day in New York laid out targets through 2030 |
| FORM.US | +9.59% | Deutsche Bank initiated coverage; qualified as second NVDA.US probe-card supplier |
| ZETA.US | +9.01% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven. |
| BRZE.US | +8.42% | No company announcement found. |
| LQDA.US | -57.19% | Court found Yutrepia infringed two United Therapeutics patent claims |
| TRLV.US | -12.17% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven. |
| JBL.US | -10.03% | Q4 EPS $4.40 beat $4.06; capacity spending and margin timing weighed |
| CBRS.US | -8.87% | IPO lockup release freed about 19.4 million shares |
| MTG.US | -8.53% | Mortgage insurers fell as a group on rates and FHFA policy risk |
After-hours earnings
MU.US reported fiscal Q4 revenue of $54.23 billion and adjusted EPS of $33.42 after the 30 September close, above consensus estimates of roughly $51 billion to $51.5 billion and $31.16 to $31.72. Guidance for fiscal Q1 2027 calls for revenue of $60 billion to $63 billion and adjusted EPS of $37.15 to $39.15, against consensus of $57.4 billion and $35.47. The stock closed the regular session at $1,065.11, fell 0.4% in early extended trading, then quoted 0.87% higher at $1,075.20 later in the post-market session.
Notable announcements
- JBL.US guided fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS to $17.55 against $16.92 consensus and revenue to $44.5 billion against $42.93 billion, after fiscal 2026 revenue of $36.0 billion.
- KMX.US fell 6.96% after fiscal Q2 EPS of $1.16 beat $0.73 expected and revenue grew 19.5% to $7.88 billion; the company targets $200 million in annualized cost savings.
- CAG.US posted fiscal Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.41 against a $0.28 consensus and closed down 4.88%.
- ESNT.US -8.43%, NMIH.US -8.37% and RDN.US -6.53% fell alongside MTG.US; FHFA Director Bill Pulte criticised mortgage insurance costs in mid-September. Title insurers FNF.US (-6.10%) and FAF.US (-5.14%) also declined.
- CBOE.US rose 5.17% and SNPS.US 4.78%, two of the larger gainers above $25 billion in market value.
Next session catalysts (ET)
- Thu 08:05: Fed speakers Schmid, Collins and Barkin
- Thu 08:30: Initial jobless claims
- Thu 09:00: Fed Governor Waller speaks
- Thu 10:00: ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending
- Thu 14:00 and 14:30: Fed's Bowman, then New York Fed President Williams
- Thu 16:15: NKE.US fiscal Q1 2027 results, consensus EPS about $0.44 on $11.34 billion revenue
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