US Pre-Market 30 September 2026: Futures Flat as Core PCE Slows to 3.0% and Q2 GDP Is Revised Up to 2.2%
Sentiment: mixed S&P 500 futures: +0.01%
S&P 500 futures are +0.01% and Nasdaq 100 futures -0.18% at 8:32am ET after August core PCE inflation came in at 3.0% year on year, against a 3.4% consensus set before the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the series back to 2021. The BEA also raised second-quarter GDP growth to 2.2% from 1.5%. Boeing BA.US is +2.33% pre-market after the Navy picked it over Northrop Grumman NOC.US for the F/A-XX carrier fighter, a development contract worth more than $20 billion; NOC.US is -4.04%. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.255% after Tuesday's 19-year high, and New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday he sees "no need for urgency" on the next rate increase.
Overnight drivers
- Inflation: the August PCE price index rose 0.3% on the month and 3.4% on the year; core PCE rose 0.2% and 3.0%. The BEA's annual update revised the series from January 2021, so the 3.4% core consensus predates the new history. Real consumer spending rose 0.6% in August and the saving rate is 4.1%.
- Growth: real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter in the third estimate, up from 1.5% in the second estimate; first-quarter growth is now 2.5%. Corporate profits from current production rose $384.0 billion in the quarter.
- Jobs: ADP counted 90,000 new private-sector jobs in September against 72,000 expected and 38,000 in August. Base pay for job-stayers rose 3.0% and for job-changers 4.8%. The government's September payrolls report is due Friday.
- Rates and the Fed: the 10-year yield closed Tuesday at 5.255% after topping 5.29% intraday, and the 30-year reached 5.62%, its highest since 2002. Williams said on Tuesday that "we have time to gather more information" and that he sees one more increase "late this year"; CME FedWatch priced a 72.5% chance of an October hike before his remarks. The dollar index is 101.23, -0.14%.
- Commodities: WTI November crude is +1.32% to US$90.56 and December gold +0.85% to US$4,215.40 an ounce.
Tuesday's close
The S&P 500 closed at 7,670.84 on 29 September 2026, down 12.85 points or 0.17%, as the 30-year Treasury yield rose for a sixth straight session. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.09% to 26,797.54, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 131.59 points or 0.26% to 51,349.92, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.35% to 2,807.92.
AAPL.US fell 2.66% to $329.40, worth about 17 bps of the index, after a Bank of America note on AI shopping agents. META.US +3.24%, AMAT.US +5.19% and ORCL.US +3.91% offset most of that. FICO.US lost 26.52% after the FHFA put VantageScore on the same Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pricing grid, QURE.US fell 37.33% on Huntington's disease data, and CCL.US rose 13.41% on a fiscal third-quarter beat. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 81.9, its lowest since 2014.
Overnight Asia and Europe
- Nikkei 225 closed at 66,753.72, +1.94%.
- Hang Seng 24,613.27, +0.37%; Shanghai Composite 3,842.19, +0.31%, ahead of the Golden Week closure; KOSPI 6,838.04, -0.48%.
- STOXX 600 637.18 (-0.14%), DAX 25,290.79 (-0.43%) and FTSE 100 10,634.53 (-0.02%) at 8:32am ET.
Pre-market movers
| Ticker | Pre-market | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| HOOD.US | +4.61% | Robinhood announced an in-app AI agent, 24/7 trading in some stocks and perpetual futures for US users |
| FORM.US | +2.74% | Deutsche Bank started coverage at buy, citing FormFactor's role as second probe-card source for Nvidia GPUs |
| BA.US | +2.33% | Won the Navy's F/A-XX sixth-generation fighter, more than $20 billion for full-scale development |
| JBL.US | -2.52% | Fiscal Q4 core EPS $4.40 against $4.02 expected on $10.6 billion revenue; Q1 revenue guide $10.6 to $11.4 billion |
| NOC.US | -4.04% | Lost the F/A-XX competition to Boeing |
| CALM.US | -7.38% | Fiscal Q1 loss of $1.26 a share against $0.77 expected; sales -41.5% to $539.6 million as egg prices fell 59.3% |
| MRNA.US | -7.38% | Citi downgraded Moderna to sell with a target 60% below Tuesday's close |
| CNXC.US | -7.68% | Fiscal Q3 revenue below estimates and guidance under consensus; management cited AI pressure on revenue |
MU.US is +1.13% at $1,077.13 ahead of Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter report after the close, where consensus sits at EPS of $31.50 on revenue of $51.13 billion. GOOGL.US +1.49%, NVDA.US +0.71% and AAPL.US +0.49% pre-market. CAG.US is -3.26% and FDS.US -2.30% on results day for both.
US economic calendar today (ET)
- 08:15 ADP employment for September: 90,000, released.
- 08:30 PCE inflation and personal spending for August, and Q2 GDP third estimate: released, figures above.
- 09:45 Chicago PMI for September, 51.2 expected.
- 10:30 EIA weekly crude inventories.
- After 16:00 Micron fiscal Q4 results.
- Thursday 10:00 ISM manufacturing for September.
- Friday 08:30 September payrolls report.
What to watch
- S&P 500 futures +0.01% and Nasdaq 100 futures -0.18% after the 8:30 release, with the 10-year at 5.255% going in.
- Core PCE at 0.2% on the month sits below the 0.3% consensus; the 3.0% annual rate rests on the revised history.
- BA.US +2.33% and NOC.US -4.04% pre-market on the F/A-XX award, which also covers multiple test aircraft.
- MU.US at $1,077.13 reports after the close with consensus revenue of $51.13 billion.
- 30 September is the last trading day of the third quarter.
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