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Wall Street records on a Marvell-led chip surge; ASX eyes Q1 GDP at 11:30, 3 June 2026

S&P 500's first close above 7,600 and a 32.52% Marvell surge hand the ASX a firmer lead, but Q1 GDP at 11:30 AEST is the session's hinge.

Neutral3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

S&P 5007,610+0.13%
NASDAQ27,094+0.03%
Dow51,308+0.45%
VIX15.77-1.74%
AUD/USD0.7182+0.21%

Wall Street records on a Marvell-led chip surge; ASX eyes Q1 GDP at 11:30, 3 June 2026

Sentiment: neutral ASX 200 futures: SPI near 8,737, about 8 points above Tuesday's 8,729.4 close (US futures: S&P 500 +0.20%, Nasdaq +0.58%)

Wall Street set fresh records overnight on a chip-earnings surge: the S&P 500 rose 0.13% to 7,609.78, its first close above 7,600, and the Dow added 0.45% (229 points) to 51,307.79. Marvell MRVL.US jumped 32.52% on record quarterly revenue and a US$1 trillion market-cap endorsement from Nvidia's Jensen Huang, while HPE.US rose 19.47% on its own beat. US futures point higher (Nasdaq +0.58%) and the VIX sits at 15.77, but the local session hinges on Q1 GDP at 11:30 AEST, where consensus near +0.4% to +0.5% would confirm a slowdown from Q4's +0.8%.

What drove the overnight session

  • Chip and AI earnings: MRVL.US +32.52% on record Q1 FY27 revenue of US$2.418 billion (+28% year on year) and Q2 guidance of US$2.7 billion, with Nvidia's Jensen Huang flagging a path to a US$1 trillion valuation. HPE.US +19.47% on an earnings beat and raised guidance. The pair lifted the semiconductor group and helped the Dow to a record.
  • Microsoft drag: MSFT.US fell 4.17% after a new US executive order asked AI companies to submit models for a voluntary federal review. That single weight held the Nasdaq to +0.03% even as chips climbed.
  • Records with low volatility: the S&P 500 (+0.13%) and Dow (+0.45%) both closed at records, the VIX eased 1.7% to 15.77, and NVDA.US (-0.69%) and AAPL.US (+2.90%) rounded out a split mega-cap session.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,609.78 (+0.13%)
  • Nasdaq: 27,093.9 (+0.03%)
  • Dow: 51,307.79 (+0.45%)
  • VIX: 15.77 (-1.7%)

Marvell's result and HPE's guidance drove the semiconductor and hardware group, pushing the Dow up 229 points to a record and the S&P 500 to its first close above 7,600, while Microsoft's 4.17% fall on the new AI-model review order held the Nasdaq to +0.03%. With the VIX at 15.77, the records came without a volatility bid.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,519/oz (-0.02%)
  • Brent: US$95.78 (-0.23%)
  • WTI: US$93.39 (-0.39%)
  • Iron ore 62% Qingdao: near US$108/t (soft)
  • Copper: US$6.68/lb (+0.01%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7182 (+0.21%)

Gold held near US$4,519 after a flat overnight session, a neutral starting point for NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU. Crude eased, with Brent down 0.23% to US$95.78 and WTI off 0.39% to US$93.39, leaving WDS.AU and STO.AU against softer prices. Rising Australian and Brazilian shipments keep iron ore soft near US$108/t, the weakest commodity input for BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU at the open.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Tech and data centres: Nasdaq futures sit +0.58% after Marvell's result; NXT.AU, GMG.AU and WTC.AU open into a positive offshore read for the AI-infrastructure theme.
  • AI policy cross-current: MSFT.US fell 4.17% on the new federal AI-model review order even as chip names climbed, splitting the US tech read for local software and data names.
  • Miners: iron ore near US$108/t on rising supply gives BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU the weakest commodity lead among the large caps.
  • USD earners: AUD/USD firmed 0.21% to 0.7182; each cent of AUD strength trims the Australian-dollar value of USD revenue at CSL.AU, COH.AU and RMD.AU.
  • Banks into GDP: CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU are the most growth-sensitive index weights into the 11:30 AEST national accounts.

Economic calendar today

  • 11:30 AEST: Q1 2026 GDP (National Accounts). Consensus near +0.4% to +0.5% quarter on quarter, against +0.8% in Q4 2025. The Melbourne Institute nowcast is +0.4%, which would ease annual growth to about 2.5%.
  • This is the first quarterly read to capture both the February RBA rate rise and the Middle East oil shock, and it lands before the RBA's next decision later this month.

What to watch

  • Breadth into the 11:30 print: the S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,729.4 on Tuesday, near the top of its recent range, so the GDP number sets the tone for the cash session.
  • The offshore cross-current for local tech: MRVL.US +32.52% and the firmer Nasdaq futures against the MSFT.US -4.17% policy reaction.
  • Iron ore near US$108/t on rising supply for the large-cap miners.
  • US non-farm payrolls land Friday, the next major offshore data point after tonight's US session.

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