Morning briefAfternoon brief
morning

ASX poised to open lower on overnight chip rout; May CPI looms at 11:30 AEST

Nasdaq fell 2.21% as memory names led the decline (SNDK.US -13.64%, MU.US -13.18%); the Dow held flat and MSFT.US rose 1.80%, a chip-specific derating.

Bearish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

S&P 5007,365-1.44%
NASDAQ25,587-2.21%
Dow51,667-0.09%
VIX19.49+12.79%
Gold4,117-0.79%
Brent76.77-0.40%
AUD/USD0.6917-0.06%

ASX poised to open lower on overnight chip rout; May CPI looms at 11:30 AEST

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: indicative -0.3%

Wall Street's AI trade cracked overnight: the Nasdaq fell 2.21% to 25,587 and the S&P 500 1.44% to 7,365 as a memory-chip selloff spread from Seoul to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which dropped 7.87% to 13,483. SanDisk SNDK.US (-13.64%) and Micron MU.US (-13.18%) led the decline after South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics each fell more than 12%, reviving doubts over AI-hardware returns. The Dow held flat (-0.09%) and Microsoft MSFT.US rose 1.80%, so the ASX 200 opens into a chip-specific derating rather than a broad risk-off, with the May CPI indicator at 11:30 AEST the local swing factor.

What drove the overnight session

  • Memory-chip selloff: SOX.INDX -7.87%, with MU.US -13.18%, SNDK.US -13.64% and MRVL.US -9.36% after SK Hynix and Samsung each fell more than 12% in Seoul. Read-through: ASX growth names tied to the AI build (WTC.AU, NXT.AU, BRN.AU) track the Nasdaq lower at the open.
  • AI-trade derating: Nasdaq -2.21% against Dow -0.09%, with NVDA.US -4.13%, AMD.US -5.76% and INTC.US -6.14% all lower while MSFT.US rose 1.80%. The split points to rotation within tech, not a wholesale exit. Read-through: ASX banks (CBA.AU, NAB.AU) and REITs carry less Nasdaq sensitivity than ASX growth.
  • Rates and the dollar: the US 10-year yield slipped 1.6bps to 4.49% and the US dollar index rose 0.17% to 101.02, so the selloff was equity-specific, not rates-driven. Gold eased 0.79% to US$4,117/oz. Read-through: a firmer USD and softer bullion weigh on ASX gold miners (NEM.AU, NST.AU, EVN.AU).
  • Commodities and AUD: Brent -0.40% to US$76.77 and copper -0.44% to US$6.121; iron ore held near US$101/t. AUD/USD eased to 0.6917, a level that helps USD earners (CSL.AU, RMD.AU) on translation while leaving BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU with little to react to.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,365.46 (-1.44%)
  • Nasdaq: 25,587.04 (-2.21%)
  • Dow: 51,666.84 (-0.09%)
  • Russell 2000: 2,975.48 (-0.96%)
  • VIX: 19.49 (+12.79%)

The decline stayed concentrated in chips and AI hardware. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.87%, its steepest session in weeks, while the Dow finished a fraction below flat as money rotated toward value and defensives. Microsoft MSFT.US rose 1.80% against the trend, and the rest of the megacaps slipped only modestly (AAPL.US -0.91%, GOOGL.US -0.98%, META.US -0.29%). The VIX rose to 19.49 on hedging concentrated in the chip names. US futures steadied after the close (S&P futures -0.12%, Nasdaq futures -0.11%).

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,116.7/oz (-0.79%)
  • Brent: US$76.77 (-0.40%)
  • WTI: US$72.94 (-0.37%)
  • Copper: US$6.121 (-0.44%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe: about US$101/t (steady)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6917 (-0.06%)

Gold slipped 0.79% to US$4,117/oz overnight, tracking a firmer US dollar (DXY +0.17% to 101.02) and setting the main cross-current for ASX gold miners. Energy eased modestly, with Brent at US$76.77 a small drag for WDS.AU and STO.AU. Iron ore held near US$101/t.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Tech: ASX growth names track the Nasdaq lower; WTC.AU, XRO.AU, NXT.AU and BRN.AU carry the most Nasdaq sensitivity.
  • Banks: CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU are insulated from the chip move and sit on the value side of the overnight rotation.
  • Gold: NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU open against softer bullion and a firmer USD.
  • Resources: BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU face steady iron ore near US$101/t; copper eased 0.44%.
  • USD earners: a 0.6917 AUD supports CSL.AU, COH.AU and RMD.AU on USD translation.

Economic calendar today

  • 11:30 AEST: ABS Monthly CPI Indicator, May. April printed +4.2% y/y; consensus has the trimmed mean edging up to about 3.5% from 3.4% (Westpac at 3.6%). An upside surprise would lift the AUD, and Australian rate futures would price a more hawkish RBA.

What to watch

  • Whether ASX value (banks, miners) can offset the tech drag enough to keep the index decline shallow at the open.
  • The 11:30 AEST CPI print, the largest scheduled domestic catalyst and the main driver of AUD and rate-futures moves into the afternoon.
  • Breadth at the open: a narrow, tech-led decline would echo the overnight US pattern, while broad selling would signal something heavier.

Context only. Not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.

Track every trade. Learn from every week.

Swingfolio logs your entries, exits, and R-multiples automatically — so your weekly review writes itself.

Start freeSee features

Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →