ASX 200 set for a firmer open as a chip-led Wall Street rebound meets softer commodities

Sentiment: mixed Overnight lead: S&P 500 +1.08%, Nasdaq +1.91% (after the local close)

The S&P/ASX 200 finished Thursday 18 June 2026 at 8,911.1, down 0.62%, and should open firmer today after Wall Street rebounded overnight. The S&P 500 rose 1.08% to 7,500.58 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.91% to 26,517.93, led by Intel (INTC.US) up 10.64% to a record after President Trump said Apple (AAPL.US) had agreed to have it make chips in the US. But gold fell to US$4,220, Brent is down about 9% on the week and iron ore sits near US$101 a tonne, which caps how much of that offshore gain the mining-heavy index keeps at the open.

What drove the overnight session

• Semiconductors led the rebound: Intel (INTC.US) +10.64% to a record, Micron (MU.US) +8.70%, Nvidia (NVDA.US) +2.95%, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index outrunning the broader market. For the local open, that supports technology names WTC.AU, XRO.AU and ALU.AU alongside the Nasdaq read-through.
• The US-Iran deal pulled oil lower: Brent sits near US$79.24 and is off about 9% on the week after Washington and Tehran signed a 60-day ceasefire extension and the first ships moved back through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower crude pressures producers WDS.AU and STO.AU and trims the fuel bill for QAN.AU.
• A hawkish Fed firmed the US dollar: the dollar index rose 0.55% to 100.09 and the US 2-year Treasury yield reached 4.18%, its highest in over a year, as markets moved to about a 70% chance of a September rate rise. A stronger dollar pressures gold and the miners NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU, while lifting the AUD value of USD earners CSL.AU, RMD.AU and COH.AU.
• Volatility reset: the VIX fell 11.06% to 16.40 and the Russell 2000 rose 2.12% as Wednesday's Fed-day selloff reversed. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.45%, down about 4 basis points.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,500.58 (+1.08%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,517.93 (+1.91%)
• Dow Jones: 51,564.70 (+0.14%)
• VIX: 16.40 (-11.06%)

The rebound recovered most of Wednesday's 1.2% Fed-day drop. Technology and semiconductors led the gain, while energy lagged as crude fell: Exxon (XOM.US) dropped 2.1% and Chevron (CVX.US) lost 2.2%. Airlines and cruise operators rose on the cheaper fuel outlook, with American Airlines (AAL.US) up 3.7%. SpaceX (SPCX.US) fell 3.6% for a second session after its market debut last week.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,220/oz (-0.61%)
• Brent: US$79.24 (down about 9% on the week)
• WTI: US$75.38
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: US$101/t (down about 8% on the month)
• AUD/USD: 0.7019

Gold's 0.61% slip and the firmer dollar point to a soft open for the gold miners. Iron ore near US$101 a tonne keeps pressure on BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU after an 8% fall over the past month. The Australian dollar near 0.7019 reflects the stronger greenback, which lifts the reported AUD earnings of offshore-revenue names such as CSL.AU and RMD.AU.

Key themes for ASX open

• Resources against technology: softer gold, oil and iron ore weigh on the index's mining and energy weight (BHP.AU, WDS.AU, NEM.AU) while the Nasdaq's 1.91% gain supports local technology (WTC.AU, XRO.AU).
• Gold miners: NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU open against spot gold near US$4,220 and a dollar index at 100.09.
• Energy: Brent's roughly 9% weekly fall as the war premium unwinds leaves WDS.AU and STO.AU facing lower realised prices.
• USD earners: the 0.55% dollar gain lifts the AUD translation for CSL.AU, RMD.AU and COH.AU.
• Banks: CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU sit against a hawkish Fed, with the US 2-year yield at a one-year high even as the 10-year eased.

Economic calendar today

• 16:30 AEST: RBA Balance Sheet (A1) release
• US equity and bond markets closed for Juneteenth, so no offshore lead builds into the weekend

What to watch

• Whether resource names absorb the softer gold, oil and iron ore prints or follow the firmer offshore lead
• Local technology's response to the Nasdaq and semiconductor lead
• Thinner offshore guidance through Friday and into the weekend with US markets shut

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