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ASX 200 futures point 0.6% higher as Brent gaps above US$90 on the Sunday reopen

Energy leads the local open while Friday's 1.40% Nasdaq fall and gold near US$4,000 weigh on technology and the miners.

Mixed4 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,797-0.50%
All Ords8,979-0.64%
AU VIX11.58+3.67%
S&P 5007,458-1.01%
NASDAQ25,520-1.40%
Dow52,146-0.77%
VIX18.77+12.19%
Gold4,003-0.40%
Brent90.88+3.16%
AUD/USD0.698-0.32%
ES_F7,496-0.02%
NQ_F28,812+0.13%

ASX 200 futures point 0.6% higher as Brent gaps above US$90 on the Sunday reopen

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.6% (+55 points)

S&P/ASX 200 futures point to a 55-point open, about 0.6% above Friday's 8,796.7 close, after Brent gapped 3.16% to US$90.88 on the Sunday reopen and US futures steadied. Advantest fell 7.20% in Tokyo on Friday, the largest single drag on a Nikkei 225 that lost 4.03% as the semiconductor selling deepened. The US 10-year sits at 4.541%, down 2.8 basis points, so crude rather than rates is setting the local open.

Overnight drivers

  • Crude: Brent +3.16% to US$90.88 and WTI +2.84% to US$84.10 on the Sunday reopen. US and Iranian forces have traded fire over control of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of seaborne oil and gas, and at least nine ships have been attacked since 6 July. WDS.AU, STO.AU and ORG.AU rose 3.29%, 1.86% and 1.45% on Friday and open with crude another 3% higher. QAN.AU, down 1.06% on Friday, carries the fuel bill.
  • Semiconductors: Nasdaq -1.40% to 25,520.24. META.US -2.79%, TSM.US -2.77% and NVDA.US -2.21% led Friday's decline as investors reduced exposure to AI infrastructure on concern hyperscaler capital spending slows. NXT.AU fell 2.45% on Friday and is the closest local equivalent.
  • US futures: ES=F -0.02% at 7,496.00 and NQ=F +0.13% at 28,811.50 in early Asian trade. Friday's fall is not extending, which is what lets the SPI point higher.
  • Gold: US$4,002.80 an ounce, down 0.40% and within US$3 of the US$4,000 level. EVN.AU fell 4.27% and NST.AU 4.14% on Friday.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,457.69 (-1.01%)
  • Nasdaq: 25,520.24 (-1.40%)
  • Dow: 52,146.42 (-0.77%)
  • VIX: 18.77 (+12.19%)

Friday's selling concentrated in semiconductors and the AI supply chain, with the Nasdaq's 1.40% fall close to double the Dow's 0.77%. Energy was the offset: CVX.US rose 1.91% and XOM.US 0.97% as crude climbed. The VIX rose 12.19% to 18.77.

Tokyo closed 4.03% lower at 64,141.12 on Friday, more than 10% below its 25 June peak, with Advantest down 7.20% the single largest drag. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is shut today for Marine Day, though its derivatives market trades. Korea was closed on Friday for Constitution Day and reopens today without having traded Friday's US semiconductor decline; the Kospi's 6.37% fall came on Thursday 16 July, after a Bank of Korea rate rise.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,002.80/oz (-0.40%)
  • Brent: US$90.88 (+3.16%)
  • WTI: US$84.10 (+2.84%)
  • Iron ore 62% Qingdao: US$98.88/t (+0.07%, 17 July)
  • Copper: US$6.255/lb (-0.15%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6980 (-0.32%)

Energy carries the only fresh move. Brent settled at US$88.10 on Friday after a 15.91% weekly gain and reopened at US$90.88. Iron ore at US$98.88/t leaves BHP.AU and RIO.AU, down 2.71% and 2.39% on Friday, without support from the spot price. BHP reported record FY26 iron ore production of 291.2Mt at a realised US$83.58/t, 2% below the prior quarter, and 200 Port Hedland workers stopped for eight hours on Thursday in the first strike at the hub since 2000. AUD/USD at 0.6980 lifts the translated value of USD revenue for CSL.AU and COH.AU.

Key themes for ASX open

  • WDS.AU, STO.AU and ORG.AU open with Brent 3.16% higher than the level behind Friday's 3.29%, 1.86% and 1.45% gains. Energy is roughly 5% of the index by weight, so it cannot lift the benchmark alone.
  • BHP.AU and RIO.AU, down 2.71% and 2.39% on Friday, face iron ore at US$98.88/t and an unresolved Port Hedland pay dispute after Thursday's eight-hour stoppage.
  • NST.AU and EVN.AU fell 4.14% and 4.27% on Friday with gold at US$4,002.80, 0.40% lower and US$3 above the US$4,000 level.
  • CBA.AU slipped 0.78% on Friday. The US 10-year at 4.541% is 2.8 basis points lower, and the market prices about 6 basis points of RBA tightening for August.
  • NXT.AU, WTC.AU and XRO.AU track a Nasdaq that fell 1.40%, though technology carries a far smaller weight in the ASX 200 than in the US benchmark.

Economic calendar today

  • Mon 20 Jul: no major Australian data release. Tokyo Stock Exchange closed for Marine Day; Korea Exchange reopens after Friday's Constitution Day closure.
  • Wed 22 Jul, 11:30 AEST: RBA Bulletin.
  • Thu 23 Jul, 11:30 AEST: ABS Labour Force.

What to watch

  • Hormuz transit volumes set the crude path. The US and Iran dispute how the waterway reopens under the memorandum they signed on 17 June, and at least nine ships have been attacked since 6 July.
  • BHP.AU and the Combined BHP Ports Unions have held nine bargaining sessions since October 2025 without an agreement covering about 450 Port Hedland maritime staff.
  • Korea Exchange trades today for the first time since Thursday, taking in both Friday's US semiconductor fall and the crude move in a single session.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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