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ASX 200 futures up 0.30% after US payrolls cut October Fed hike odds to 16%

S&P 500 +0.73% and Nasdaq +1.19% on 29,000 September jobs; WTI -1.90% on a G7 reserve plan and gold -0.95%

Bullish4 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,682+0.79%
S&P 5007,723+0.73%
NASDAQ27,191+1.19%
Dow51,177+0.49%
VIX15.31-6.59%
Gold4,162-0.95%
AUD/USD0.6959+0.39%
SPI_F8,708+0.30%

ASX 200 futures up 0.30% after US payrolls cut October Fed hike odds to 16%

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.30%

ASX 200 futures pointed to a 26-point, or 0.30%, gain at the open on 5 October 2026, after the S&P 500 rose 0.73% to 7,722.72 on Friday when September payrolls added 29,000 jobs against forecasts near 90,000. The report cut the market-implied chance of an October Fed rate hike from 64% to 16%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% to 27,190.86. November WTI fell 1.90% to US$91.11 after the G7 agreed to consider releasing up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil and diesel reserves, and December gold settled 0.95% lower at US$4,162.30/oz.

Overnight drivers

US nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 in September 2026, unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and revisions cut July and August by a combined 60,000.

  • Fed pricing: October hike odds fell from 64% to 16%, yet the US 10-year Treasury yield closed 4 bp higher at 5.28% after trading near 5.16% straight after the report. CBA.AU closed Friday at $151.45 (+1.16%) and NAB.AU at $38.50 (+1.61%), days after the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60%; US banks were flat (XLF.US +0.06%).
  • US tech: the VanEck semiconductor fund SMH.US rose 2.07% and NVDA.US 1.34%. On Friday the S&P/ASX 200 information technology index rose 4.45%, with WTC.AU +6.67% to $33.43 and XRO.AU +4.59% to $57.85.
  • Crude: WTI touched US$88.06, a one-month low, before settling at US$91.11 on the G7 reserve plan. WDS.AU closed Friday at $31.24 (+1.13%) and STO.AU at $8.54 (+1.79%); XLE.US rose 0.19%.
  • Gold: December gold fell US$40.00 to US$4,162.30/oz as the 10-year yield rose. Gold equities moved the other way in New York: NEM.US +0.78% and GDX.US +1.20%. NST.AU closed Friday at $24.02 and EVN.AU at $13.09.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,722.72 (+0.73%)
  • Nasdaq: 27,190.86 (+1.19%)
  • Dow: 51,176.96 (+0.49%)
  • VIX: 15.31 (-6.59%)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,722.72 on 2 October 2026, up 56.27 points or 0.73%, with 10 of 11 SPDR sector funds higher. Chips and the large tech names supplied about 42 bps of the gain; TSLA.US rose 4.65% to US$370.59 after 486,532 third-quarter deliveries beat a consensus near 463,000. The Russell 2000 rose 0.94% to 2,832.89 as hike odds fell.

WDC.US fell 10.22% and STX.US 10.21% after Toshiba outlined a 60 billion yen plan to double its hard-drive capacity. NKE.US fell 3.64% to US$33.87 after first-quarter revenue fell 4% to US$11.2 billion. The Nasdaq 100 closed at a record 30,807.93.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,162.30/oz (-0.95%)
  • WTI crude: US$91.11 (-1.90%)
  • Brent (December): US$102.25 (-0.06%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe (Singapore): US$91.35/t
  • AUD/USD: 0.6959 (+0.39%)

BHP.US rose 1.68% to US$86.07 in New York; each ADR represents two BHP.AU shares, so the close equals about A$61.84 at 0.6959, 1.0% above Friday's ASX close of $61.21. RIO.US gained 1.44% to US$94.21. Singapore iron ore traded at US$91.35/t, against US$92.10/t cited on Thursday; Dalian stays shut for China's National Day holiday until 8 October. AUD/USD traded at 0.6959 at 09:30 AEDT, up from a Friday close of 0.6929, after the US Dollar Index fell 0.17% to 101.93.

Key themes for the ASX open

  • Tech: WTC.AU, XRO.AU and MP1.AU (+10.32% to $22.34) led Friday's 4.45% sector gain; the information technology index rose 7.34% over the week. SMH.US added 2.07% overnight.
  • Energy: WDS.AU and STO.AU rose 1.13% and 1.79% on Friday, before WTI fell 1.90% and Brent held at US$102.25.
  • Gold miners: gold futures fell 0.95% since NST.AU (+1.14%) and EVN.AU (+0.08%) closed on Friday, while GDX.US rose 1.20%.
  • Iron ore majors: BHP.US +1.68% and RIO.US +1.44% in New York, with Singapore iron ore at US$91.35/t.
  • USD earners: CSL.AU fell 1.62% to $175.35 on Friday and RMD.AU rose 0.76% to $31.79; AUD/USD is 0.4% above Friday's close.

Economic calendar today

  • 10:00 AEDT: ASX open, after a 0.79% rise to 8,682.1 on Friday; the first session on daylight saving time
  • All day: Labour Day public holiday in NSW, the ACT and South Australia, and the King's Birthday in Queensland; ASX trades normal hours
  • All day: mainland China markets closed for National Day; they reopen on 8 October
  • Tonight: final September PMI readings for Japan, the eurozone, the UK and the US
  • Tuesday 6 October: Firmus Grid opens its IPO bookbuild at $11 a share
  • Wednesday 7 October, 11:30 AEDT: ABS building approvals for August

What to watch

  • 26 points is the implied opening gain, after Friday's 67.7-point rise left the ASX 200 up 0.20% for the week, its first weekly gain in five.
  • 5.28% on the US 10-year yield is 4 bp above Thursday's close, despite the drop in hike odds to 16%.
  • 2.60% was the Hang Seng's fall on Friday, its first session after the National Day break, against the Nikkei 225's 0.94% fall.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →