ASX 200 futures up 0.3% as the Nasdaq gains 1.05% and crude falls 2%

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.31%

ASX 200 futures pointed to a 27-point, or 0.31%, gain at the open on 6 October 2026, after the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05% to 27,477.31 on gains in NVDA.US (+2.12%) and AVGO.US (+2.08%). PTC.US jumped 33.49% after Schneider Electric agreed to buy the software maker for about US$22 billion in cash. November WTI fell 1.99% to US$89.30 after OPEC+ left its quotas unchanged, while the US 10-year yield rose 3.4 bp to 5.31% after the ISM services prices index reached 74.0.

Overnight drivers

The ISM services PMI for September came in at 54.9, down from 55.4 in August, and its prices index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022.

• Yields: the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31%, up 3.4 bp and a 52-week high, and the Australian 10-year traded at 5.41%. CBA.AU closed Monday at $151.22 (-0.15%) and NAB.AU at $38.40 (-0.26%); US banks rose, with XLF.US +0.73%.
• US tech: the Nasdaq 100 closed at a record 31,076.44 (+0.87%), with MSFT.US +1.48% and META.US +1.90%. WTC.AU fell 2.09% to $32.73 and XRO.AU 2.32% to $56.51 on Monday, after the local tech index gained 7.34% last week.
• Crude: WTI settled at US$89.30 and December Brent at US$100.32 (-1.89%). OPEC+ kept November quotas unchanged, and Gulf exports ran above pre-war levels on four of the past seven days despite disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The energy fund XLE.US rose 1.00%.
• Base metals: copper futures rose 2.16% to US$6.63/lb and FCX.US 0.78%, with Singapore iron ore up 0.5% to US$91.80/t.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,773.95 (+0.66%)
• Nasdaq: 27,477.31 (+1.05%)
• Dow: 51,267.90 (+0.18%)
• VIX: 15.52 (+1.37%)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,773.95 on 5 October 2026, up 51.23 points or 0.66%, with 10 of 11 SPDR sector funds higher. Materials (XLB.US +1.31%) and communication services (XLC.US +1.17%) led, and real estate (XLRE.US -0.34%) was the one decliner as yields rose. The Russell 2000 gained 0.50% to 2,847.14.

CHRW.US fell 10.85% after C.H. Robinson agreed to sell its global forwarding unit to RXO in a deal valued at about US$5.8 billion. INTC.US lost 2.63% after Elon Musk said TSMC could join his Texas Terafab project in place of Intel, and SPCX.US rose 7.63%.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,167.60/oz (+0.13%)
• Brent (December): US$100.32 (-1.89%)
• WTI (November): US$89.30 (-1.99%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe (Singapore): US$91.80/t (+0.5%)
• Copper: US$6.63/lb (+2.16%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6972 (+0.21%)

BHP.US rose 0.88% to US$86.83 in New York; each ADR represents two BHP.AU shares, so the close equals about A$62.27 at 0.6972, 0.6% above Monday's ASX close of $61.89. RIO.US gained 1.53% to US$95.65. The AUD rose 0.21% to 0.6972 while the US Dollar Index gained 0.19% to 102.12. The G7 has released 100 million barrels from emergency reserves; WDS.AU closed Monday at $31.22 and STO.AU at $8.57.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Miners: copper +2.16% and iron ore +0.5% overnight, after BHP.AU (+1.11%), S32.AU (+0.81%) and SFR.AU (+1.23%) rose on Monday.
• Energy: WTI is 1.99% lower since WDS.AU (-0.06%), STO.AU (+0.35%) and BPT.AU (-0.59%) closed on Monday. AEL.AU rose 1.16% to $1.74; it reported 7.4 PJ of September-quarter gas production.
• Tech: SMH.US +0.52% and NVDA.US +2.12% follow Monday's falls in WTC.AU and XRO.AU, and MP1.AU slipped 0.27% to $22.28.
• Gold miners: December gold rose 0.13% to US$4,167.60 while GDX.US fell 0.41%; NST.AU closed Monday at $23.91 (-0.46%) and EVN.AU at $12.95 (-1.07%).
• USD earners: CSL.AU rose 0.94% to $176.99 on Monday and RMD.AU fell 0.63% to $31.59; AUD/USD is 0.21% higher overnight.

Economic calendar today

• 10:00 AEDT: ASX open, after the ASX 200 closed Monday up 4.3 points at 8,686.4
• 10:30 AEDT: Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment for October
• 23:30 AEDT: US international trade in goods and services for August
• Today: Firmus Grid opens its IPO bookbuild at $11 a share
• Wednesday 7 October, 11:30 AEDT: ABS building approvals for August
• This week: minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting

What to watch

• 27 points is the implied opening gain, after the ASX 200 gave back a 50-point early rise on Monday to close up 0.05%.
• 74.0 on the ISM services prices index is the highest reading since July 2022, and the US 10-year yield sits at a 52-week high of 5.31%.
• 4.8% was the Melbourne Institute's annual inflation gauge for September, above the ABS monthly CPI reading of 4.0% for August.

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