ASX set to edge up as a Wall Street rotation pressures big tech, lifts the Dow

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.15%

Wall Street's headline indices masked a sharp rotation on Thursday: the S&P 500 finished flat at 7,357.49 (-0.01%) while the Nasdaq dropped 0.46% to 25,358.60 as the largest tech names sold and money moved into the Dow (+0.14% to 51,920.62) and small caps (Russell 2000 +0.71%), a shift powered by a more hawkish read on the Fed after June projections lifted the 2026 funds-rate path. Apple (AAPL.US) led the fall, down 6.15% to US$275.15, after it raised iPad and MacBook prices to offset rising memory-chip costs. ASX 200 futures point about 0.15% higher for the open, with a 2% oil bounce and an overnight gold recovery giving energy and gold names a firmer lead while local tech faces the offshore weakness.

Overnight drivers

• Fed repricing: the June FOMC projections lifted the median 2026 funds-rate dot to 3.8% from 3.4%, and markets now lean toward a rate hike rather than a cut later this year. Long-duration tech wears that shift hardest, while value and small caps benefit.
• Apple (AAPL.US) -6.15%: it lifted iPad and MacBook prices to pass on rising memory and storage costs. Microsoft (MSFT.US) -3.45%, Meta (META.US) -2.68%, Nvidia (NVDA.US) -1.59% and Alphabet (GOOGL.US) -0.45% followed.
• Micron (MU.US) +15.81%: fiscal Q3 revenue came in at US$41.46bn, more than four times a year earlier and well above the roughly US$35.7bn consensus, lifting AMD (AMD.US) +2.60% even as broad tech fell. The same memory-cost surge that helped Micron is what forced Apple's price hike.
• Oil +2%: WTI rose to US$71.74 and Brent to US$75.01 after reports of an attack on a cargo vessel in the Middle East.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,357.49 (-0.01%)
• Nasdaq: 25,358.60 (-0.46%)
• Dow: 51,920.62 (+0.14%)
• Russell 2000: 3,007.86 (+0.71%)
• VIX: 18.89 (+1.4%)

The Dow set the pace as financials, healthcare and industrials drew the flows leaving tech, and the Russell 2000 outpaced every large-cap gauge while the S&P 500 sat flat. The US 10-year yield slipped about 1 basis point to 4.39%, and the VIX firmed to 18.89, still below 19.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,045/oz (+0.8% overnight)
• Brent: US$75.01 (+1.7%)
• WTI: US$71.74 (+2.0%)
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: about US$100/t
• AUD/USD: 0.6910 (+0.1%)

Gold recovered about 0.8% overnight to near US$4,045, paring the prior session's slide to a seven-month low near US$4,010 that had hit ASX gold miners on Thursday. That stabilisation, plus the oil bounce, hands energy and gold names a firmer offshore lead into Friday. Iron ore held near US$100/t and copper was little changed around US$6.12/lb, leaving the materials picture flat. The Australian dollar sat at US$0.6910 as the US dollar index eased 0.17%.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: Santos (STO.AU) and Woodside (WDS.AU) face a firmer lead after the 2% oil move, having closed down 2.76% and 2.87% on Thursday.
• Gold miners: Evolution Mining (EVN.AU), off 3.81% on Thursday, and Northern Star (NST.AU), down 3.25%, get some relief from gold's overnight recovery.
• Tech: WiseTech (WTC.AU), down 4.47% on Thursday, and Xero (XRO.AU), off 3.50%, open against a weak lead from Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia.
• Materials: BHP (BHP.AU) closed at A$58.52, a five-week low, with iron ore parked near US$100/t.

Yesterday on the ASX

The benchmark closed Thursday at 8,748.7, down 0.68%, dragged by materials, gold and a soft financials sector. Worley (WOR.AU) fell 9.70% to A$11.08 after flagging a roughly A$60m hit to FY26 underlying earnings from Middle East project delays. Judo Capital (JDO.AU) sank about 40% to A$0.92 after disclosing a jump in bad loans and higher risk-management costs.

What to watch

• No major domestic data is scheduled; the session takes its lead from offshore.
• Whether the US tech selloff extends to a third session or steadies after Micron's result.

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