ASX 200 set to open higher as Micron's beat lifts global tech, May jobs data due

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 open: indicated +0.2% (pre-open ~8,808 vs Wednesday's 8,787 close)

The Dow rose 0.35% to 51,849 overnight while the S&P 500 eased 0.10% to 7,358 and the Nasdaq fell 0.43% to 25,477. After the close, Micron MU.US reported a much stronger than expected quarter and jumped about 16% in extended trade, which lifted Nasdaq futures NQ=F to +1.86% and S&P futures to +0.56%. The ASX 200 is indicated near 0.2% higher into a 10:00 AEST open, with the May labour force report due at 11:30 AEST and the RBA's preferred trimmed-mean inflation gauge still at 3.6%.

Overnight drivers

• Micron (MU.US): shares +16% after hours on fiscal Q3 revenue near US$41bn (consensus ~US$36bn) and data-centre sales up about sevenfold to US$11.5bn. That lifted NQ=F +1.86% and the rest of the memory and chip names, a positive for AU data-centre and software stocks WTC.AU, XRO.AU and NXT.AU after a two-day global chip selloff.
• US 10-year yield: down about 9bps to 4.40%, the lowest of the week. Lower long rates support the growth and gold names and ease pressure on AU bond proxies at the open.
• Gold: +0.24% to roughly US$4,018/oz. With AUD/USD back at 0.6900, the AUD gold price is higher again, which helps NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU.
• Energy and iron ore softer: Brent -0.87% to US$73.10 and Dalian iron ore near its lowest since July 2025 weigh on WDS.AU, STO.AU and the iron-ore majors BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,358.22 (-0.10%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 25,476.6 (-0.43%)
• Dow Jones: 51,848.9 (+0.35%)
• VIX: 18.63 (-4.41%)

The cash session fell on tech, with the Nasdaq -0.43% and semis soft (the SOX index -0.18%, NVDA -0.50%) as buyers held off ahead of Micron. The Dow still rose 0.35% and the VIX eased to 18.63 from 19.49. Micron reported after the close, lifted US futures, and the other memory and chip names followed into the Australian open.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,018/oz (+0.24%)
• Brent crude: US$73.10 (-0.87%)
• WTI crude: US$69.84 (-0.71%)
• Copper: US$5.978/lb (+0.50%)
• Iron ore (Dalian): about 743.5 CNY/t (+0.68%, near the lowest since July 2025)
• AUD/USD: 0.6900 (-0.30%)

Gold and copper firmed while crude slipped for a second session. Iron ore bounced 0.68% in Dalian but sits just above its June trough, with China demand worries (a first retail-sales decline in three years) capping any recovery. AUD/USD eased 0.30% to 0.6900 as the US dollar index rose 0.17% to 101.58, which lifts the AUD value of offshore earnings for CSL.AU, CPU.AU and RMD.AU.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Tech and AI: Micron's beat is the clearest positive for AU software and data-centre stocks, with NQ=F +1.86% pointing them higher early. WTC.AU, XRO.AU and NXT.AU are the local proxies.
• Gold miners: gold near US$4,018/oz plus a 0.6900 AUD keeps the AUD gold price high for NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU.
• Iron ore and energy: iron ore near multi-month lows and a second down session for crude weigh on BHP.AU, RIO.AU, FMG.AU, WDS.AU and STO.AU.
• Banks and rates: with the RBA cash rate at 4.35% after three 2026 hikes and trimmed-mean inflation at 3.6%, CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU trade the jobs number closely.
• Currency: AUD/USD at 0.6900 lifts the AUD value of offshore USD earnings across healthcare and industrials.

Economic calendar today

• 10:00 AEST: ASX 200 open, tracking overnight US futures (NQ=F +1.86%, ES=F +0.56%)
• 11:30 AEST: Labour Force, Australia, May 2026 (ABS). April printed unemployment at 4.5% with 33,000 more people out of work; today's number tests whether a softer labour market gives the RBA any room.

What to watch

• Whether the after-hours tech bid holds through the AU session or fades as US futures settle, since the cash Nasdaq itself closed lower.
• The 11:30 AEST jobs number against a 4.35% cash rate and a trimmed-mean gauge at 3.6%, with banks and bond proxies most exposed to a surprise.
• Breadth at the open: a tech-led move with iron ore and energy lower would leave the index gain in a handful of large names.

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