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ASX 200 futures down 0.55% as the US 10-year yield rises to 5.29% after a cooler PCE print

Dow -0.86% led by GS.US and CAT.US; AUD/USD falls 0.57% to 0.6948

Bearish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,789+0.92%
S&P 5007,652-0.25%
NASDAQ26,861+0.24%
Dow50,906-0.86%
VIX16.34+1.87%
Gold4,187+0.17%
AUD/USD0.6948-0.57%
SPI_F8,741-0.55%

ASX 200 futures down 0.55% as the US 10-year yield rises to 5.29% after a cooler PCE print

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.55%

ASX 200 futures pointed to a 48-point, or 0.55%, fall at the open on 1 October 2026, after the Dow lost 443.87 points (0.86%) to 50,906.05 as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.8 bp to 5.29% even though August core PCE inflation printed 3.0% against 3.3% expected. GS.US fell 1.73% and CAT.US 1.92%, together worth about 180 of the Dow's 444-point fall. AUD/USD fell 0.57% to 0.6948 against a 0.09% rise in the US dollar index, a day after local August CPI showed monthly prices up 0.4% and the three-year bond yield fell 17 bp.

Overnight drivers

The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.29% on 30 September 2026, up 3.8 bp, in the same session that August PCE inflation came in below forecasts.

  • US yields: 10-year at 5.29% (+3.8 bp). Core PCE rose 0.2% for the month against 0.3% expected; headline PCE ran at 3.4% annual against 3.7%. ADP private payrolls added 90,000 jobs in September against 75,000 expected. Yahoo Finance reported odds of an October Fed hike below 40%, from more than 70%. US financials fell: JPM.US -1.24%, GS.US -1.73%, V.US -1.79%, TRV.US -1.84%.
  • US defensives: WMT.US -2.70%, MRK.US -2.66%, UNH.US -2.10% and PG.US -2.05%. These four cost the Dow about 100 points.
  • Crude: November WTI settled at US$90.42, up 1.16% from US$89.38, on doubts over US-Iran peace talks. WDS.AU closed Wednesday at $31.88 (+1.27%) and STO.AU at $8.62 (+1.53%).
  • Australian dollar: 0.6948 at 08:30 AEST, down 0.57% from 0.6988. A lower AUD raises the Australian-dollar value of US-dollar revenue at CSL.AU ($184.22) and RMD.AU ($31.98).

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,651.54 (-0.25%)
  • Nasdaq: 26,861.06 (+0.24%)
  • Dow: 50,906.05 (-0.86%)
  • VIX: 16.34 (+1.87%)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,651.54 on 30 September 2026, down 19.30 points or 0.25%, and all three US indices closed at their session lows. On the Dow, 23 of 30 members fell; GS.US (-US$15.88) and CAT.US (-US$15.85) accounted for about 90 points each.

AAPL.US rose 1.10% to US$333.02; CRM.US +1.89%, AMZN.US +1.01%, GOOGL.US +0.93% and MSFT.US +0.77% lifted the Nasdaq 0.24%. META.US fell 1.84% and AVGO.US 1.10%. MAT.US fell 4.24% to US$12.66 after the toy maker announced its chief executive's departure.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,186.70/oz (+0.17%)
  • WTI crude: US$90.42 (+1.16%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe: US$96.59/t (-0.14%)
  • Copper: US$6.62/lb (+1.19%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6948 (-0.57%)

December gold settled 0.17% higher at US$4,186.70/oz, but NEM.US fell 1.49% and the GDX.US miners fund 1.43%. NST.AU closed Wednesday at $24.77 after a 6.35% gain on reports that Gold Fields may add cash to its approach. Iron ore eased 0.14% to US$96.59/t, and the BHP.US and RIO.US listings in New York closed flat (+0.02% and +0.01%). Copper rose 1.19% to US$6.62/lb.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Banks: CBA.AU closed Wednesday at $151.01 (+0.49%), NAB.AU at $39.15 and WBC.AU at $35.07, while US banks JPM.US and GS.US fell 1.24% and 1.73% as the 10-year yield rose.
  • Tech: WTC.AU fell 1.16% to $32.46 and XRO.AU 1.93% to $56.92 on Wednesday, against the Nasdaq's 0.24% gain overnight.
  • Energy: WDS.AU and STO.AU rose 1.27% and 1.53% on Wednesday; WTI added 1.16% overnight.
  • Gold miners: NEM.AU closed at $167.45 and EVN.AU at $13.35; NEM.US fell 1.49% overnight with gold up 0.17%.
  • Dividends paid today: SEK.AU pays 25 cents a share, and BRG.AU, EDV.AU and BGA.AU also pay.

Economic calendar today

  • 09:50 AEST: Japan Tankan large manufacturers index (previous 22)
  • 11:30 AEST: ABS Building Approvals, August
  • All day: mainland China markets closed for National Day until 8 October; Hong Kong closed today only
  • 22:30 AEST: US initial jobless claims (previous 197,000)
  • 00:00 AEST Friday: US ISM manufacturing PMI (forecast 54.8, previous 54.6)
  • 22:30 AEST Friday: US September non-farm payrolls

What to watch

  • 48 points is the implied opening fall, after the ASX 200 gained 80 points to 8,789.3 on Wednesday.
  • 11:30 AEST building approvals arrive two days after the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60%.
  • 8 October is the first mainland China trading day after the holiday, so Dalian iron ore futures do not trade until then.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →