ASX 200 futures +1.92% on 5 November as Democrats win Congress, the Dow gains 3.03% and Brent falls 8.26%

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +1.92% (up 170 points to about 9,026)

ASX 200 futures rose 170 points, or 1.92%, to about 9,026 at 8:27am AEDT on 5 November 2026 after Democrats won the US House and Senate and the S&P 500 gained 1.58% to 7,688.62. MSFT.US rose 6.68% and HUT.US lost 23.23% on bets that a Democratic Congress will slow AI spending. NAB.AU reported FY26 cash earnings of $6.14 billion before the open, down 13.4%, while Brent at -8.26% and gold at +3.43% give energy and gold names opposite leads.

Overnight drivers

Democrats won at least 228 House seats and at least 54 Senate seats in the US midterms, per Bloomberg on 4 November 2026, and crude, gold, yields and AI names all moved on the result.

• Politics: President Trump said he would accept the results, and Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets told CNBC gridlock has historically been good for the market. The Dow's 1,569.40-point gain was its largest percentage rise since April 2025, per CNBC.
• Crude: January Brent -8.26% to US$95.04, a two-month low per Market Index, after Vice President Vance blamed the Iran war for the Republican losses and Chuck Schumer said Democrats would push to end it. XLE.US -4.74%, COP.US -5.17%, XOM.US -4.62% and CVX.US -3.69%. WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU sell at these prices, and QAN.AU buys fuel at them.
• Dollar and gold: US dollar index -0.36% to 101.50 and December gold +3.43% to US$4,075.70/oz. NEM.US +9.90% and AEM.US +9.67%. The All Ords Gold index lost 0.79% on Wednesday, before this move.
• Yields and financials: US 10-year -5.8 bps to 4.894%. XLF.US +3.51%, JPM.US +4.18% and BAC.US +3.97%. Traders cut bets on Fed rate rises as oil fell, per Bloomberg. The ASX 200 Financials index lost 0.20% and the A-REIT index 1.10% on Wednesday.
• AI spending: AMZN.US +6.12%, AAPL.US +5.31% and GOOGL.US +3.18% rose with MSFT.US. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index lost 3.13%, MU.US 7.00%, NVDA.US 3.17%, CRWV.US 9.90% and IREN.US 11.24%. NXT.AU and GMG.AU both have data centre businesses.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,688.62 (+1.58%)
• Nasdaq: 25,736.51 (+1.44%)
• Dow: 53,356.12 (+3.03%)
• VIX: 16.61 (-20.30%)

The Dow closed at 53,356.12 on 4 November 2026, up 3.03%, and the equal-weight RSP.US gained 1.86% against 1.58% for the S&P 500. XLP.US rose 3.36%, XLC.US 3.47% and XLV.US 3.06%, with HCA.US +10.34%. XLK.US finished at -0.01% because chip losses offset MSFT.US and AAPL.US. DJT.US lost 24.54%, TSLA.US 3.34%, SPCX.US 3.81% and LMT.US 6.88%.

ADP private payrolls rose 86,000 in October against 69,000 expected, and ISM services eased to 54.5 against 54.8 expected. QCOM.US closed +5.33%, then traded at US$161.48 after its fiscal fourth-quarter report, 6.76% below the close. ARM.US closed -5.28%, then traded at US$184.60, despite revenue of US$1.44 billion against US$1.38 billion expected, per Reuters.

STOXX 600 +1.82%, DAX +2.22%, FTSE 100 +1.79% and CAC 40 +1.96% at the European close. Shanghai gained 2.16%, the Hang Seng 1.67% and the KOSPI 0.62% on Wednesday, while the Nikkei lost 1.42%.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,075.70/oz (+3.43%)
• Brent: US$95.04 (-8.26%)
• Copper: US$6.42/lb (+0.23%)
• Iron ore: Singapore US$91.85/t (+1.27%); Dalian January 682 yuan/t (+1.56%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7009 (+0.57%)

Brent's 8.26% fall on 4 November 2026 is the largest move on this list. Silver gained 5.26% to US$52.37/oz. Iron ore rose in Wednesday's Asian session on short covering and bets on Chinese restocking before Lunar New Year, per Mining.com. BHP.US gained 2.57%, RIO.US 3.60%, VALE.US 4.10% and FCX.US 1.34% overnight, after the ASX 200 Materials index lost 1.46% on Wednesday.

Key themes for the ASX open

• NAB.AU: FY26 cash earnings fell 13.4% to $6.14 billion, including $949 million of large notable items, and were flat at $7.09 billion without them. Credit impairment charges rose 86% to $1.55 billion, including a $403 million top-up to forward-looking provisions. Net interest margin rose 6 bps to 1.80% and the final dividend held at 85 cents, per Market Index. Capital Brief cited Visible Alpha consensus cash earnings of $7.24 billion. The shares closed Wednesday at $41.17.
• Large miners: BHP.AU closed Wednesday -1.52% at $55.56, RIO.AU -1.69% at $143.05 and FMG.AU -1.46% at $14.19.
• Gold: NEM.AU closed at $154.30, NST.AU at $23.60 and EVN.AU at $11.61, all before the 9.90% rise in NEM.US.
• Energy: WDS.AU closed +0.96% at $32.55, STO.AU +1.00% at $9.05 and BPT.AU +0.55% at $0.92, before Brent's fall.
• Fuel: QAN.AU closed -4.91% at $8.90 on Wednesday.
• Data centres and software: NXT.AU closed +4.15% at $6.53 and GMG.AU -1.61% at $26.87. WTC.AU closed at $41.72 and XRO.AU at $62.96.
• USD earners: AUD/USD above 0.70 reduces translated US earnings. CSL.AU closed at $197.34, RMD.AU at $33.43 and COH.AU at $142.15.
• Other reporters: JHX.AU (closed $38.33), NWS.AU ($46.43) and LNW.AU ($125.00) report today, per Market Index. SBM.AU has restarted processing at Touquoy and guides to 17,000 to 21,000 ounces in FY27.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30am AEDT: ABS International Trade in Goods, September
• 11:30am AEDT: ABS public sector employment and earnings, 2025-26
• 11:00pm AEDT: Bank of England rate decision
• Friday 12:30am AEDT: US productivity and costs
• Saturday 12:30am AEDT: US employment report, October (65,000 payrolls expected)

What to watch

• Futures at about 9,026 sit about 192 points above Wednesday's ASX 200 close of 8,834.5, after decliners led advancers 127 to 69 that day.
• NAB.AU trades on its result for the first time at the open, with $949 million of notable items separating the reported and underlying figures.
• Brent at US$95.04 trades on Iran headlines: Qatari officials expect US and Iranian responses to proposals to end the war, while reports describe talks as far from agreement, per Trading Economics.

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