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ASX 200 futures up 0.55% as the US 10-year yield eases to 5.24% and WTI jumps 2.71%

S&P 500 +0.19% on ACN.US and SNPS.US; gold settles at US$4,202.30 and AUD/USD slips to 0.6930

Bullish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,614-1.99%
S&P 5007,666+0.19%
NASDAQ26,872+0.04%
Dow50,927+0.04%
VIX16.39+0.31%
Gold4,202+0.37%
AUD/USD0.693-0.27%
SPI_F8,662+0.55%

ASX 200 futures up 0.55% as the US 10-year yield eases to 5.24% and WTI jumps 2.71%

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.55%

ASX 200 futures pointed to a 48-point, or 0.55%, gain at the open on 2 October 2026, after the S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 7,666.45 and the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 5.6 bp to 5.24% from an intraday high of 5.34%. ACN.US rose 15.78% after fourth-quarter revenue of US$18.68 billion topped its own guidance range, and SNPS.US gained 12.78%, lifting the US technology sector fund 1.05%. November WTI settled 2.71% higher at US$92.87 after Reuters reported that Chinese refiners had suspended October fuel exports, one session after the ASX 200 lost 1.99% to 8,614.4.

Overnight drivers

The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.24% on 1 October 2026, down 5.6 bp, after trading as high as 5.34% earlier in the session.

  • US yields: 10-year at 5.24% (-5.6 bp). On Thursday the ASX 200 financials index fell 2.13% as Australia's 3-year yield rose to 4.98%; WBC.AU -3.34%, NAB.AU -3.22% and ANZ.AU -2.92%. US banks rose overnight: JPM.US +0.71% and XLF.US +0.11%.
  • Crude: November WTI +2.71% to US$92.87, from US$90.42. US refiners MPC.US (+6.25%) and VLO.US (+5.38%) led XLE.US to a 1.95% gain, the best S&P 500 sector. WDS.AU closed Thursday at $30.89 (-3.11%) and STO.AU at $8.39 (-2.67%).
  • US dollar: the US Dollar Index rose 0.55% to 102.01 and AUD/USD fell 0.27% to 0.6930 at 08:30 AEST. CSL.AU closed Thursday at $178.24 (-3.25%) and RMD.AU at $31.55 (-1.34%); both report in US dollars.
  • US factory data: the ISM manufacturing PMI eased to 54.5 in September against 55.0 expected, while its prices index rose 6.8 points to 77.9.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,666.45 (+0.19%)
  • Nasdaq: 26,871.60 (+0.04%)
  • Dow: 50,926.56 (+0.04%)
  • VIX: 16.39 (+0.31%)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,666.45 on 1 October 2026, up 14.91 points or 0.19%, after falling as low as 7,616.78 (-0.45%) in the morning. Technology (XLK.US +1.05%) and energy (XLE.US +1.95%) gained, while health care (XLV.US -1.32%) and communication services (XLC.US -0.93%) fell.

ACN.US rose 15.78% to US$212.30 and SNPS.US 12.78% to US$490.54 after Synopsys signed a chip-design agreement with Amazon Web Services worth more than US$1 billion. MU.US gained 3.03% and NVDA.US 1.09%. AAPL.US fell 0.81%, GOOGL.US 1.70% and AVGO.US 2.15%. MAT.US jumped 18.80% to US$15.04 on reports that Authentic Brands Group discussed an offer above US$20 a share.

NKE.US reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of US$11.2 billion after the close, down 4% and below consensus near US$11.32 billion, and guided full-year revenue to fall by a high-single-digit percentage.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,202.30/oz (+0.37%)
  • WTI crude: US$92.87 (+2.71%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe (Singapore): US$92.10/t
  • Copper: US$6.54/lb (-0.32%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6930 (-0.27%)

December gold settled at US$4,202.30/oz, up 0.37% from US$4,186.70, as the 10-year yield eased. NEM.US fell 0.58% and GDX.US 1.21% in New York. NST.AU closed Thursday at $23.75 (-4.12%) and EVN.AU at $13.08 (-2.02%).

Singapore iron ore traded at US$92.10/t, against US$94.45/t for the October contract on 28 September. Dalian futures are shut for China's National Day holiday until 8 October, so Singapore is the only live iron ore price this week. RIO.US fell 1.38% and BHP.US 0.22% in New York; RIO.AU closed Thursday at $162.85 (-2.44%) and BHP.AU at $60.26 (-0.92%).

Key themes for ASX open

  • Energy: WDS.AU and STO.AU fell 3.11% and 2.67% on Thursday; WTI added 2.71% overnight and XLE.US 1.95%.
  • Banks: WBC.AU ($33.90), NAB.AU ($37.89) and ANZ.AU ($37.19) each fell about 3% on Thursday; CBA.AU fell 0.86% to $149.71. The US 10-year yield fell 5.6 bp overnight.
  • Gold miners: NST.AU -4.12% and EVN.AU -2.02% on Thursday, with gold futures up 0.37% since Wednesday's settle.
  • Iron ore majors: RIO.US -1.38% and BHP.US -0.22% in New York, with Singapore iron ore at US$92.10/t.
  • Tech: WTC.AU fell 3.45% and XRO.AU 2.83% on Thursday; the US technology fund rose 1.05% overnight on ACN.US and SNPS.US.

Economic calendar today

  • 10:00 AEST: ASX open, after a 1.99% fall to 8,614.4 on Thursday
  • 11:30 AEST: ABS Deaths, Australia (2025)
  • All day: mainland China markets closed for National Day until 8 October
  • 22:30 AEST: US September non-farm payrolls (median forecast 90,000; unemployment forecast 4.1%)
  • Sunday 4 October: daylight saving starts in NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and the ACT

What to watch

  • 48 points is the implied opening gain, against Thursday's 174.9-point fall.
  • 5.24% on the US 10-year yield is 5.6 bp below Wednesday's close and 10 bp below Thursday's intraday high.
  • 90,000 is the median payrolls forecast; the range runs from 60,000 to 130,000.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →