ASX 200 futures edge up 0.1% to 8,883 before September CPI as US chips gain 3.60%; Brent falls 1.37%

Sentiment: neutral ASX 200 futures: +0.1% (8,883 at 7:00am AEDT)

ASX 200 futures rose 0.1% to 8,883 by 7:00am AEDT on 28 October 2026 (ABC), after the Nasdaq gained 1.18% to 26,477.81 on Tuesday and the Philadelphia semiconductor index added 3.60%. AVGO.US rose 4.00% to US$342.33 after Broadcom lined up US$63bn of financing for Anthropic's chips (Stockhead), while BA.US fell 10.69% to US$168.18 after cutting 737 Max and 787 delivery targets. Australia's September quarter CPI lands at 11:30am AEDT, with markets pricing about a 60% chance of an RBA hike next week (ABC).

Overnight drivers

• Philadelphia semiconductor index +3.60% to 11,482.51: a third straight daily gain for chips (Reuters). NVDA.US rose 0.90% after Nvidia said it would invest in Meta's equity offering (Schwab), and META.US fell 1.64% after it lifted that raise to US$97.5bn (Reuters). ASX tech rose 0.38% on Tuesday to 1,623.1 and NXT.AU closed at $5.75, up 3.79%.
• December copper +1.82% to US$6.661/lb: BHP.US rose 4.39% to US$82.60, which converts to A$58.74 per BHP.AU share at 0.7030, 1.30% above its $57.99 close. BHP.AU gained 4.26% on Tuesday as materials rose 2.78%.
• December Brent -1.37% to US$114.22: crude eased on Middle East peace negotiations (Reuters), and the US energy ETF fell 2.05%, the worst S&P sector. WDS.US lost 0.73% to US$23.16, which converts to A$32.94, 0.72% below WDS.AU's $33.18 close.
• December gold +0.86% to US$4,073.1: spot gold rose 1.2% to US$4,063/oz (ABC) after the All Ords Gold index added 1.45% on Tuesday.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,722.60 (+0.60%)
• Nasdaq: 26,477.81 (+1.18%)
• Dow: 52,377.57 (+0.03%)
• VIX: 17.52 (-4.73%)

The S&P 500 rose 45.83 points to 7,722.60 on 27 October 2026, a second straight gain, with advancers ahead of decliners 1.83 to 1 on the NYSE (Reuters). Nearly half of the S&P 500 has reported third quarter results, and 83% have beaten expectations on LSEG data. UPS.US rose 5.75% after raising its annual revenue and profit forecasts, while Xylem fell 14.21% after trimming its full-year outlook.

The US 10-year yield held at 4.99%, the Russell 2000 rose 1.16% to 2,818.87 and US consumer confidence rose to 91.7 in October from 84.2 (Stockhead). MSFT.US and GOOGL.US report after Wednesday's US close.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,073.1/oz (+0.86%, December contract)
• Brent: US$114.22 (-1.37%, December contract)
• Iron ore 62%: US$89.44/t (-1.3%, ABC)
• AUD/USD: 0.7030 (+0.19%)

December gold at US$4,073.1 converts to about A$5,794/oz at 0.7030; NST.AU closed Tuesday at $25.35 and EVN.AU at $11.69. Iron ore fell 1.3% to US$89.44/t while copper rose 1.82%; FMG.AU, an iron ore producer with no copper output, closed Tuesday at $14.50, down 0.55%. Lithium carbonate rose 1.08% to US$14,858/t (Stockhead). RMD.US eased 0.95% to US$250.80, which converts to A$35.67 per RMD.AU share, 0.49% above its $35.50 close.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Miners: BHP.US implies a 1.30% premium to BHP.AU after copper's 1.82% rise; RIO.AU closed Tuesday at $150.32, up 2.53%.
• Lithium: PLS.AU reported record September quarter production of 270,000 t, up 25%, while sales fell 11% to 224,000 t and revenue 24% to $563m on a 14% lower realised price (ABC). It also signed a Pilgangoora power deal with FMG Clean Energy. PLS.AU closed Tuesday at $2.88.
• Energy: WDS.US implies A$32.94 for WDS.AU, 0.72% below Tuesday's close, with Brent down 1.37%; STO.AU closed at $9.18.
• Banks and rates: the Australian 10-year yield sat at 5.19% (ABC) before CPI. ASX financials fell 0.59% on Tuesday, with CBA.AU at $162.02 and NAB.AU at $40.29, and the US financials ETF eased 0.25% overnight.
• AGMs: DXS.AU, VCX.AU and ASB.AU hold AGMs today (Stockhead); ASB.AU rose 3.35% to $4.32 on Tuesday.

Economic calendar today

• 11:15 AEDT: RBA Governor Michele Bullock appears before a Senate hearing (Stockhead)
• 11:30 AEDT: Australia September quarter and monthly CPI; trimmed mean consensus +1.0% for the quarter and 3.6% for the year, against the RBA's 0.8% August forecast (ABC)
• 29 October, 05:00 AEDT: FOMC decision; the Fed is expected to hold at 3.75% to 4% (Reuters, CME FedWatch)
• After Wednesday's US close: MSFT.US and GOOGL.US results

What to watch

• 8,883 on futures sits 32.9 points above Tuesday's ASX 200 close of 8,850.1; ABC had futures pointing to a 0.1% gain at the open, and the contract trades at a basis to the cash index.
• 1.0% is the bank consensus for September quarter trimmed mean CPI, 0.2 points above the RBA's own forecast, with about 60% of a 25 bp November hike priced (ABC).
• 10.96 was the ASX 200 VIX close on Tuesday, down 2.29%, while the US VIX fell 4.73% to 17.52.

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