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ASX 200 futures fall 0.5% to 8,774 as the Dow drops 1.23%; Brent rises 3.14% to US$116.72

AXP.US -3.67% on job cuts; T.US -7.96% on the SpaceX cell-site report; gold -1.29% to US$4,007.90; WDS.US implies A$33.61

Mixed3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,795+0.02%
S&P 5007,624-0.52%
NASDAQ25,955-0.21%
Dow52,215-1.23%
VIX19.45+2.21%
Gold4,008-1.29%
Brent116.72+3.14%
AUD/USD0.7039+0.29%
SPI_F8,774-0.50%

ASX 200 futures fall 0.5% to 8,774 as the Dow drops 1.23%; Brent rises 3.14% to US$116.72

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.5%

ASX 200 futures fell 0.5% to 8,774 by 6:49am AEDT on 26 October 2026 (ABC) after the Dow lost 1.23% to 52,215.16 on Friday, as December Brent rose 3.14% to US$116.72 on Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia (Stockhead). AXP.US fell 3.67% after American Express said it plans to cut about 5% of its workforce (TheStreet), while T.US fell 7.96% on a Bloomberg report that SpaceX is seeking about 80,000 US cell sites. WDS.US rose 3.45% to US$23.66, which converts to A$33.61, 2.29% above WDS.AU's $32.86 close, while December gold fell 1.29% to US$4,007.90.

Overnight drivers

  • Brent +3.14% to US$116.72: December Brent reached its highest level since late April (Stockhead), and December WTI rose 3.82% to US$103.27. XLE.US gained 2.60%, with XOM.US +2.79% and CVX.US +2.88%; the ASX energy index fell 0.40% on Friday, and STO.AU closed at $9.05.
  • Gold -1.29% to US$4,007.90: spot gold fell 0.7% to US$3,996/oz (ABC), below US$4,000 for the first time since July, as the oil rise lifted bets on a Fed rate rise (Motley Fool). NEM.US fell 4.59% and GDX.US 1.82%, after the All Ords Gold index lost 5.56% on Friday; NST.AU closed at $24.16, EVN.AU at $11.31 and CMM.AU at $12.39.
  • XLF.US -1.32%: AXP.US took 652.82 points off the price-weighted Dow, and the US 10-year yield rose 3.5 bps to 4.99%. ASX financials gained 2.21% on Friday, with CBA.AU +4.35% to $164.00, NAB.AU +3.25% to $41.31 and WBC.AU +3.11% to $36.79.
  • Copper +1.71% to US$6.5075/lb: BHP.US rose 0.35% to US$77.85, which implies A$55.30 for BHP.AU, 0.45% above its $55.05 close. The ASX materials index fell 3.85% on Friday, with S32.AU -5.28% and IGO.AU -7.38%.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,623.68 (-0.52%)
  • Nasdaq: 25,955.34 (-0.21%)
  • Dow: 52,215.16 (-1.23%)
  • VIX: 19.45 (+2.21%)

The S&P 500 lost 0.52% on 23 October 2026 while the S&P 500 energy sector rose about 2.5% to a record high (ABC). TMUS.US fell 7.71% and VZ.US 1.19% on the SpaceX report, while CCI.US gained 9.06% after Bloomberg said SpaceX was in talks with Crown Castle. NYSE decliners outnumbered advancers 1.72 to 1 (Reuters), and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.29% to 2,775.90.

MU.US rose 2.46%, AMD.US 1.74% and SMH.US 0.74% after Thursday's chip sell-off. WTC.AU closed Friday at $40.12, XRO.AU at $64.19 and NXT.AU at $5.61. RMD.US eased 0.08% to US$252.86, which converts to about A$35.92 per RMD.AU share against its $35.91 close.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,007.90/oz (-1.29%, December contract)
  • Brent: US$116.72 (+3.14%, December contract)
  • Iron ore 62%: US$90.40/t (+0.5%, ABC)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7039 (+0.29%)

Gold at US$4,007.90 converts to about A$5,694/oz at 0.7039, after December gold lost 4.14% across the week. Iron ore at US$90.40/t follows Friday's 2.06% fall in FMG.AU to $14.27 and 3.64% fall in BHP.AU. December silver fell 1.92% to US$53.95. Brent at US$116.72 compares with WDS.US at an implied A$33.61, and the ASX energy index sits at 10,904.5.

Key themes for the ASX open

  • Energy: WDS.US implies a 2.29% higher WDS.AU price, with Brent +3.14% and XLE.US +2.60%; ORG.AU closed Friday at $12.18.
  • Gold: NEM.US -4.59% and spot gold below US$4,000 follow Friday's 7.88% fall in CMM.AU and 4.48% fall in EVN.AU.
  • Banks: XLF.US -1.32% follows a 2.21% Friday gain in ASX financials, which Market Index described as a rotation from miners into banks.
  • Miners: BHP.US implies A$55.30, 0.45% above BHP.AU's close, with copper +1.71% and iron ore +0.5%.
  • AGMs: COH.AU (+4.42% to $146.81 on Friday) and NCK.AU (+5.15% to $12.65) hold annual general meetings today (Motley Fool).

Economic calendar today

  • Today: no AU data release in the calendar (ABC); COH.AU and NCK.AU AGMs
  • 28 October, 11:30 AEDT: Australia September CPI; ABC cites consensus of 1.3% for the quarter and 3.9% for the year
  • 29 October, 05:00 AEDT: FOMC decision

What to watch

  • 8,774 on futures sits 21.2 points below Friday's ASX 200 close of 8,795.2; Motley Fool put the implied open 43 points, or 0.5%, lower.
  • The RBA decides on 3 November, and November rate rise pricing moved to 41% from 27% last week (Market Index) after Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser called the inflation outlook "materially worse" on 21 October.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →