ASX eyes a firmer open as weekend Gulf strikes lift crude and Wall Street steadies

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 lead: indicated higher (S&P 500 futures +0.46%, Nasdaq futures +0.68%, pre-open XJO.INDX +0.18%)

The S&P/ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,748.7 and is indicated to open higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.46% and Nasdaq futures up 0.68% in early Sunday-night US trade after a weekend re-escalation in the Persian Gulf pushed Brent crude up 1.12% to US$73.41. MSFT.US rose 5.71% on Friday as investors shifted out of AI chipmakers and into the largest software names, while SNDK.US fell 10.46% and MU.US 6.69% on the other side of that move. US inflation ran at a three-year high of 4.1% year over year, in line with forecasts, and futures markets now price a near-full Federal Reserve rate increase at the October meeting.

Overnight drivers

• Persian Gulf re-escalation: The mid-June US-Iran ceasefire broke down over the weekend. A Panama-flagged tanker was struck by a drone on Saturday, US Central Command hit Iranian military sites in response, and Iranian forces fired on Kuwait and Bahrain. Brent rose 1.12% to US$73.41 and WTI 1.34% to US$70.16, partly unwinding Friday's slide. Supportive for energy names WDS.AU and STO.AU at the open.
• US PCE at a three-year high: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose 4.1% year over year and 0.4% on the month, both in line with forecasts. The 10-year Treasury yield eased 2 basis points to 4.37%, yet the 4.1% level keeps the Fed on a tightening path, with October now priced for a near-full rate increase.
• Software up, chips down: MSFT.US gained 5.71%, AAPL.US 3.14% and AMZN.US 2.50% as money moved into the largest software names, while NVDA.US fell 1.64%, QCOM.US 7.57% and MU.US 6.69%. A mixed lead for local tech: Nasdaq futures point up 0.68%, but the chip selloff that has run all week is not yet settled.
• Firm US dollar, softer Aussie: The US dollar index held near a seven-month high and AUD/USD eased 0.20% to 0.6897. The weaker local unit lifts the translated earnings of offshore-facing names such as CSL.AU and RMD.AU, while the US-dollar gold price slipped 0.51%, a softer lead for producers reporting in USD.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,354.02 (-0.05%)
• Nasdaq: 25,297.62 (-0.24%)
• Dow: 51,876.11 (-0.09%)
• VIX: 18.41 (-2.54%)

Friday capped a hard week for technology, with the Nasdaq down 4.37% across the five sessions, yet the index itself finished close to flat as the session split in two. MSFT.US added 5.71% and AAPL.US 3.14% as investors moved into the largest software names, while QCOM.US fell 7.57%, MU.US 6.69% and SNDK.US 10.46% on concern that rising memory and storage costs are squeezing hardware margins. The CBOE Volatility Index settled at 18.41, down 2.54%, as Friday's inflation reading matched forecasts and eased some of the week's anxiety.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,075/oz (-0.51%)
• Brent: US$73.41 (+1.12%)
• WTI: US$70.16 (+1.34%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: near US$100/t (range US$98 to US$105)
• Copper: US$6.19/lb (-0.22%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6897 (-0.20%)

Crude is the standout. Brent and WTI both rebounded in early trade after the weekend strikes renewed the threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for the bulk of Gulf oil exports. That partly reverses Friday's slide, when WTI fell almost 4% as tankers had begun exiting the strait on easing tensions. Iron ore sat near US$100 a tonne on the SGX, range-bound between US$98 and US$105 as thin Chinese steel-mill margins cap demand, a neutral lead for BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU. Gold eased 0.51% to US$4,075 with the US dollar firm near a seven-month high.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: the Sunday-night crude rebound supports WDS.AU and STO.AU after a soft Friday for the sector globally.
• Gold miners: a US$4,075 bullion print, down 0.51%, gives NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU a softer lead.
• Iron ore majors: BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU face a flat iron ore market near US$100 a tonne.
• Banks and property trusts: a three-year-high US inflation reading and a priced October Fed move keep rate-sensitive names CBA.AU and GMG.AU in focus.
• Local tech: WTC.AU and XRO.AU take a mixed lead, with Nasdaq futures up 0.68% but the global software-versus-chips split still open.

Economic calendar today

• Light domestic calendar. Monday 29 June and Tuesday 30 June are the final two sessions of the 2025-26 financial year.
• A suite of tax, wage and superannuation changes takes effect on 1 July, the start of FY27.
• No major scheduled Australian data release before Tuesday's close.

What to watch

• The next session of the Gulf conflict and any further disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping, which would extend the crude move.
• US June payrolls, pulled forward to Thursday 2 July ahead of the 3 July US market holiday; consensus is 172,000 jobs and 4.3% unemployment.
• End-of-financial-year flows across the final two ASX sessions of FY26, which can amplify moves in stocks that have run hard or lagged this year.

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