ASX 200 set to open 0.55% higher as Brent sheds 6% on a pause in US strikes on Iran

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.55%

SPI futures point the S&P/ASX 200 to open 48 points or 0.55% higher from Friday's 8,772.3 close, after Brent crude fell 5.96% to US$91.01 in the weekend session when the US halted a 13-night run of strikes on Iran. AAPL.US rose 3.53% to US$333.02 on Friday on broker previews ahead of its 30 July quarterly result, carrying the Dow up 0.46% while the Nasdaq fell 0.64%. Cheaper crude eases the inflation pressure that had lifted bets on a Federal Reserve hike, and Nasdaq futures sit 1.24% higher ahead of the 28 to 29 July meeting.

Overnight drivers

• US strikes on Iran paused: Brent -5.96% to US$91.01, WTI -5.78% to US$84.15. The US military said on Saturday its naval blockade of Iran stays in full effect but gave no reason for stopping a 13-night run of strikes, and Trump said on Friday that talks with Tehran were underway while adding Tehran was not yet ready for a deal. Crude has given back roughly 9% from Thursday's US$100 print. Energy is about 5% of the ASX 200, and Friday's local leaders were KAR.AU +10.84%, BPT.AU +2.26%, WDS.AU +1.79% and STO.AU +1.53%.
• Nasdaq futures +1.24%: ES=F +0.64% to 7,495.25, NQ=F +1.24% to 28,632.25, YM=F +0.47% to 52,368. Friday's ASX technology names fell: WTC.AU -4.64%, XRO.AU -4.45%, TNE.AU -3.90%, and they open with a positive offshore lead after three straight Nasdaq declines of 0.57%, 2.15% and 0.64%.
• The Red Sea escalated while the Gulf went quiet: Houthi missiles struck Aramco's Jizan refinery, which processes up to 400,000 barrels a day, and the Yanbu oil port on Saturday. Two ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu were intercepted. Yanbu is the port Saudi crude has been using to avoid the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, so crude fell 5.96% despite direct hits on Saudi export capacity.
• Gold US$4,092.80, silver US$60.09: gold +0.54%, silver +2.01%, with the US dollar index 0.18% lower at 101.29. Local gold names fell on Friday: NST.AU -3.91%, EVN.AU -2.42%, NEM.AU -1.53%.

Overnight Wall Street

The S&P 500 closed at 7,411.98 on Friday 24 July 2026, up 0.05%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.64% to 24,975.82 and the Dow rose 0.46% to 51,947.25.

• S&P 500: 7,411.98 (+0.05%)
• Nasdaq: 24,975.82 (-0.64%)
• Dow: 51,947.25 (+0.46%)
• Russell 2000: 2,930.00 (-0.35%)
• VIX: 18.58 (-0.64%)
• US 10-year yield: 4.68%

AAPL.US rose 3.53% to US$333.02 after BofA and Morgan Stanley each published previews arguing its 30 July quarter would beat consensus on iPhone revenue. The Nasdaq's drag came from the rest of the large-cap group: TSLA.US -2.08%, META.US -1.80%, NVDA.US -0.92% and AMZN.US -0.66%. Energy majors barely moved: XOM.US +0.03%, CVX.US +0.19%. Crude broke after the New York close, which leaves Friday's cash prints more than two days stale by the ASX open and makes this morning's futures the better guide.

Commodities and FX (AU relevant)

• Brent: US$91.01 (-5.96%)
• WTI: US$84.15 (-5.78%)
• Gold: US$4,092.80/oz (+0.54%)
• Silver: US$60.09/oz (+2.01%)
• Copper: US$6.373/lb (+0.24%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China: US$98.42/t (24 July settle)
• AUD/USD: 0.6998 (+0.43%)

Brent's two-session slide from Thursday's US$100 print is the largest single input for the local open, and it points the opposite way to Friday's sector mix. WDS.AU and STO.AU carry most of the index's energy weight and both closed higher on Friday while crude still sat near US$97. Iron ore below US$100 keeps pressure on BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU, which fell 2.94%, 1.69% and 1.01% on Friday. AUD/USD at 0.6998 reduces the Australian dollar value of USD revenue for CSL.AU, which fell 1.32%.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: KAR.AU +10.84%, BPT.AU +2.26%, WDS.AU +1.79% and STO.AU +1.53% closed Friday with Brent near US$97. Brent is now US$91.01.
• Technology: WTC.AU -4.64%, XRO.AU -4.45% and TNE.AU -3.90% on Friday, against Nasdaq futures +1.24% this morning.
• Gold miners: NST.AU -3.91% and EVN.AU -2.42% on Friday, with gold now +0.54% at US$4,092.80/oz.
• Banks: NAB.AU +1.46%, ANZ.AU +1.42%, WBC.AU +1.36% and CBA.AU +1.00% led Friday's index while the US 10-year sits at 4.68%.
• Fuel-cost exposure: QAN.AU -1.96% and ALD.AU -0.80% on Friday, both priced off crude near US$97 rather than US$91.

Economic calendar today

• No scheduled ABS release for Monday 27 July. The local data week starts Tuesday with the RBA Governor at 13:05 AEST.
• Before market open: AFI.AU reports full-year results and declares its final dividend.
• Offshore, US second-quarter reporting runs all week, with the Federal Reserve decision landing Thursday 04:00 AEST.

What to watch

• Wed 11:30 AEST: June quarter CPI. June employment rose 76,300 against a 16,400 consensus and unemployment held at 4.4%, which reinforced expectations of another RBA hike this year.
• Tue 13:05 AEST: RBA Governor Bullock speaks, one day ahead of that CPI print.
• Thu 04:00 AEST: Federal Reserve decision from the 28 to 29 July meeting. Economists polled by FactSet expect a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%, a fifth consecutive hold.
• Whether crude holds the weekend fall. The Gulf strike pause and the Red Sea attacks on Aramco facilities point in opposite directions, and Brent has already swung 6.88% higher on Thursday and 5.96% lower this morning.
• The ASX 200 has closed near 8,800 for six straight weeks. A 48-point gap opens it around 8,820, still inside that band.

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