ASX 200 futures up 0.1% as the US 10-year yield hits 5.24% before the RBA decision

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.1%

ASX 200 futures rose 0.1% to 8,727 before the open on 29 September 2026, after the S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7,683.69 as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.6 basis points to 5.24%, its highest close since 2007. Gold futures fell 3.54% to US$4,168.40/oz and NEM.US dropped 4.43%, ahead of the first trade for NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU. The RBA announces its cash rate decision at 14:30 AEST, and money markets price a 25 bp increase from 4.35% to 4.60%.

Overnight drivers

The US 10-year yield closed at 5.24% on 28 September 2026, up 5.6 bp on the session.

• US 10-year yield: 5.24%, +5.6 bp. The 30-year yield reached 5.57%, its highest since 2004. REITs and long-duration tech names such as WTC.AU and XRO.AU are the rate-sensitive ASX groups.
• Gold: December futures -3.54% to US$4,168.40/oz, down from US$4,321.20 on Friday. The VanEck gold miners fund GDX.US fell 5.36%. NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU are the local gold exposure.
• Crude: November Brent +0.92% to US$105.28, WTI +0.21% to US$92.60, after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. XOM.US rose 1.20%. WDS.AU and STO.AU are the local energy exposure.
• RBA: all four major banks expect a 25 bp increase to 4.60% at 14:30 AEST, which would be the highest cash rate since November 2011. Monthly CPI printed 3.5% against a 3.3% forecast, and the trimmed mean printed 3.6% against 3.5%.

Overnight Wall Street

The S&P 500 closed at 7,683.69 on 28 September 2026, down 0.77%, as Treasury yields and crude rose together.

• S&P 500: 7,683.69 (-0.77%)
• Nasdaq: 26,820.38 (-0.92%)
• Dow: 51,481.51 (-0.67%)
• VIX: 16.07 (+8.07%)

MDB.US fell 18.46% after its chief executive left for Meta Platforms, and RBLX.US fell 9.86% after a Jefferies downgrade. BA.US dropped 6.91% after the FAA delayed certification of the 737 Max 10 over a software issue in its automated landing guidance. TSLA.US fell 3.94% and MSFT.US 1.35%. NVDA.US gained 1.68% after authorising a US$150 billion share buyback. The Russell 2000 fell 0.69% to 2,817.91.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

Gold futures settled at US$4,168.40/oz on 28 September 2026, down 3.54% for the session.

• Gold: US$4,168.40/oz (-3.54%); US$4,156.20 in Asian trade (-0.29%)
• Brent (November): US$105.28 (+0.92%); US$105.70 in Asian trade
• WTI: US$92.60 (+0.21%)
• Copper: US$6.63/lb (-0.93%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7021 (-0.06%) at 08:30 AEST
• US dollar index: 101.18 (+0.20%)

Gold futures fell US$152.80 from Friday's US$4,321.20 settle. NST.AU closed at $23.47 on Monday, up 6.15% after rejecting a Gold Fields proposal. BHP.US, the BHP ADR, closed 0.46% lower at US$84.58, and RIO.US fell 0.16%.

Key themes for ASX open

• Gold miners: GDX.US -5.36% and NEM.US -4.43% overnight. EVN.AU closed Monday at $13.30 (-2.99%) and NEM.AU at $166.96 (-2.37%), while gold futures were still falling toward the US$4,168.40 settle.
• Banks into the RBA: CBA.AU closed Monday at $151.52 (+0.46%). Money markets fully price a 25 bp hike to 4.60%; Governor Michele Bullock speaks at 15:30 AEST on any further moves.
• Energy: November Brent settled at US$105.28. WDS.AU closed Monday at $31.77 (+0.16%) and STO.AU at $8.58 (+0.23%).
• Yields: the Australian 10-year yield sat at 5.44% against 5.24% in the US, a spread of 20 bp.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator, August 2026
• 14:30 AEST: RBA cash rate decision (current 4.35%; market pricing 4.60%)
• 15:30 AEST: RBA Governor Michele Bullock press conference
• Wed 00:00 AEST: US JOLTS job openings

What to watch

• The gap between the 8,727 futures level and Monday's 8,679.7 cash close, against a 3.54% fall in gold futures that hits Materials.
• The RBA statement wording on inflation after the 3.5% monthly CPI print, and the AUD/USD reaction from 0.7021.
• The US 10-year yield at 5.24% into the JOLTS release.

Context only. Not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.