ASX 200 futures -0.47% on 4 November as the US 10-year reaches 4.95% and copper falls 2.45%

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.47% (down 42 points to 8,855)

ASX 200 futures fell 42 points, or 0.47%, to 8,855 at 8:10am AEDT on 4 November 2026 after the US 10-year yield rose 5.8 bps to 4.95% and copper lost 2.45%, even as the S&P 500 gained 0.36% to 7,568.92 on a chip rebound. AMD.US closed +3.65% at US$483.90, then traded at US$524.27 after hours, 8.34% above the close, on a third-quarter beat. BHP.US fell 2.42% and gold 0.89%, so miners and local tech names open with opposite overnight leads.

Overnight drivers

Four overnight inputs reach the ASX on 4 November 2026: US yields, chips, metals and crude.

• US yields: 10-year +5.8 bps to 4.95% after September job openings reached 7.5 million, up from a revised 7.2 million in August. XLF.US lost 0.64%, JPM.US 0.76%. CBA.AU closed Tuesday +1.32% at $167.23, and the A-REIT index gained 2.85% on Tuesday as the local 3-year yield fell about 8 bps.
• Chips: Philadelphia Semiconductor index +2.63%, a day after closing about 22% below its 6 October high. NVDA.US gained 2.29%, AVGO.US 3.07% and MU.US 2.58%. WTC.AU (+3.23%), XRO.AU (+2.22%) and NXT.AU (+5.38%) all rose on Tuesday, before this move.
• Metals: copper -2.45% to US$6.41/lb, silver -2.18% to US$49.78/oz, gold -0.89%. XLB.US lost 2.01%, FCX.US 1.91%, BHP.US 2.42% and RIO.US 1.34%. BHP.AU closed Tuesday at $56.42 and RIO.AU at $145.51.
• Crude: January Brent traded from US$100.80 to US$107.21 and sat at US$104.54, down 0.22%, after President Trump confirmed a US strike on an Iranian anti-aircraft facility. Strait of Hormuz shipments appeared untouched. XOM.US lost 1.23%, CVX.US 1.10%.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,568.92 (+0.36%)
• Nasdaq: 25,372.01 (+0.83%)
• Dow: 51,786.72 (-0.38%)
• VIX: 20.83 (-1.51%)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,568.92 on 3 November 2026, up 0.36%, while the equal-weight RSP.US lost 0.33%. Most index members fell. MSFT.US rose 2.74%, META.US 2.36%, AMZN.US 2.06% and XLK.US 1.31%. AAPL.US lost 1.90% to US$331.90 after warning that memory chip costs would keep pressure on holiday-quarter gross margin. SHOP.US fell 8.74% on its first revenue miss since 2022, and PLTR.US lost 1.65% despite an earnings beat.

AMD.US reported third-quarter revenue of US$13.38 billion against US$13.08 billion expected, earnings per share of US$2.09 against US$1.97, and data center revenue of US$8.50 billion against US$8.19 billion, per Yahoo Finance. CEO Lisa Su said she expects growth to accelerate further in the fourth quarter.

FTSE 100 closed -1.14%, DAX -0.45% and CAC 40 -0.34% in Europe. South Korea's KOSPI lost 3.59% on Tuesday, led lower by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while the Nikkei lost 0.33% and the Hang Seng gained 0.57%.

US voters went to the polls for the midterm elections on Tuesday. Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, and Polymarket gave Democrats a 76% chance of winning both chambers as of Tuesday morning in the US, per Yahoo Finance. Brock Weimer of Edward Jones said the S&P 500 has posted a positive six-month return after every midterm since 1970, per the Sydney Morning Herald.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$3,934.40/oz (-0.89%)
• Brent: US$104.54 (-0.22%)
• Copper: US$6.41/lb (-2.45%)
• Iron ore: Dalian January 671 yuan/t (-0.74% on Tuesday); Singapore about US$91/t
• AUD/USD: 0.6968 (-0.45%)

Copper's 2.45% fall on 3 November 2026 was the largest overnight move on this list, and zinc lost about 2.60% with it. Gold fell as the 10-year yield and the US dollar index (+0.12% to 101.87) rose. Dalian's January iron ore contract lost 0.74% and Qingdao spot fell 2 to 5 yuan on Tuesday. Brent sits US$2.67 below its overnight high, and the ASX 200 Energy index lost 3.45% on Tuesday, with WDS.AU -3.53% and STO.AU -1.75%.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Large miners: BHP.AU and RIO.AU closed Tuesday -0.56% and -0.05%; their US-listed lines lost 2.42% and 1.34% overnight. S32.AU (-0.69%) and SFR.AU (-1.82%) both mine copper and zinc.
• Gold: the All Ords Gold index gained 0.30% on Tuesday. NEM.US lost 1.49% overnight; NEM.AU closed at $154.38 and EVN.AU at $11.65.
• Technology: the Information Technology index gained 0.77% on Tuesday, before the chip index's 2.63% rise and the after-hours move in AMD.US. WTC.AU closed at $41.83, XRO.AU at $63.02 and NXT.AU at $6.27.
• Banks: WBC.AU closed -0.99% at $36.82. Morgans said Westpac's second-half earnings and dividend per share were flat on the first half and below consensus, and cut its FY27 earnings forecast by about 5%.
• USD earners: AUD/USD at 0.6968 is 0.45% lower. CSL.AU closed Tuesday -1.21% at $198.72, RMD.AU -0.42% at $33.32 and COH.AU +0.44% at $141.78.

Economic calendar today

• 10:00am AEDT: first US midterm polls close
• 11:30am AEDT: ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator, September
• 11:30am AEDT: ABS Job Vacancies, August
• 11:30am AEDT: ABS Selected Living Cost Indexes, September
• 5:00pm AEDT: last US midterm polls close, in Alaska
• Thursday 12:30am AEDT: US international trade in goods and services

What to watch

• Household spending arrives at 11:30am AEDT, a day after the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.85% in a 6 to 3 vote. CBA expects that to be the last rise of the cycle.
• Vote counts arrive during the ASX session, from 10:00am AEDT, and some races may not be called on the night.
• Futures at 8,855 sit about 32 points below Tuesday's ASX 200 close of 8,886.8.

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