ASX 200 futures +0.62% as Brent falls 8.2% on US-Iran talks; RBA decision due at 2:30pm AEDT

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.62%

ASX 200 futures were up 55 points, or 0.62%, at about 8,921 by 8:29am AEDT on 3 November 2026 after January Brent fell 8.16% to US$104.17 when Iran's supreme leader approved talks with Washington. The S&P 500 lost 0.51% to 7,541.40 as chip stocks fell again: MRVL.US dropped 12.72% on a US$115 billion deal for LITE.US and ORCL.US 8.76% on a US$20 billion capital raise. The ASX 200 opens from 8,856.5, and the RBA decides at 2:30pm AEDT with a 25 bps rise to 4.85% about 80% priced.

Overnight drivers

• Crude: January Brent -8.16% to US$104.17 and WTI -7.77% to US$96.03. IRNA reported that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approved government talks, and Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran on Monday evening (ANZ, ABC). XOM.US fell 4.05% and the S&P energy ETF 3.96%. WDS.AU closed Monday at $33.42 (+0.27%) and STO.AU at $9.12 (-1.41%).
• Chips and AI financing: Philadelphia Semiconductor index -3.37% to 10,328.33, after -7.20% on Friday. AMD.US lost 7.52% before its result on Tuesday, INTC.US 8.80% and MU.US 5.78%. LITE.US fell 18.59% as the target of the all-stock Marvell deal, and Oracle plans about US$10 billion each of bonds and stock. XRO.AU closed Monday at $61.65 (-0.72%).
• Gold and metals: Gold futures +1.44% to US$3,954.90/oz, silver +2.72% to US$50.62/oz and copper +0.86% to US$6.54/lb as lower energy prices eased growth concerns (ANZ). NEM.US rose 2.33%. NST.AU closed Monday at $24.07 (-4.75%) and EVN.AU at $11.56 (-1.70%), with the All Ords Gold index -2.80% before this rebound.
• Bonds and banks: US 10-year yield -3.5 bps to 4.894%; the S&P financials ETF gained 1.86%. CBA.AU closed Monday at $165.05 (-1.00%) and NAB.AU at $40.91 (-1.45%), with the ASX financials index -0.63%.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,541.40 (-0.51%)
• Nasdaq: 25,164.32 (-1.07%)
• Dow: 51,983.98 (+0.41%)
• VIX: 21.15 (+8.90%)

The Nasdaq Composite closed 1.07% lower on 2 November 2026 after rising as much as 1.3% earlier in the session, while the Dow gained 0.41% as buyers moved into consumer and financial names (Yahoo Finance). S&P sector ETFs ranged from consumer discretionary +2.41% and financials +1.86% to technology -2.95% and energy -3.96%. UAL.US rose 4.80% on lower fuel costs.

AAPL.US closed 1.83% lower, then reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of US$114.48 billion against US$113.39 billion expected, iPhone revenue of US$57.58 billion and a gross margin of 47.9%, including about 1 percentage point from tariff refunds (CNBC). The stock traded near US$335 after hours at 8:33am AEDT, about 0.9% under the close. PLTR.US closed 3.13% lower before reporting third-quarter revenue of US$2.313 billion against US$2.17 billion expected (Yahoo Finance).

ISM manufacturing rose to 55.5 in October against 54.6 expected, and its prices-paid gauge eased to 75.2 from 77.9. CME futures priced a 76% chance of a 25 bps Fed rise in December, as cited by Yahoo Finance. Euro Stoxx 50 closed +0.73%, DAX +0.63% and FTSE 100 +0.29%. In Asia on Monday, KOSPI closed +2.24%, Shanghai +1.08% and Hang Seng +0.42%.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$3,954.90/oz (+1.44%)
• Brent: US$104.17 (-8.16%)
• Iron ore: US$91.05/t (+0.31%, December SGX contract at 0840 GMT Monday)
• AUD/USD: 0.6998 (-0.52%)

AUD/USD traded at 0.6998 on 3 November 2026, under 70 US cents before the RBA, and CBA said a rise about 80% priced leaves limited upside for the currency (ABC). USD earners CSL.AU and COH.AU closed Monday at $201.16 (+0.21%) and $141.16 (-1.73%). BHP.AU closed at $56.74 (-1.42%) and RIO.AU at $145.59 (-1.17%), while the China Iron & Steel Association warned that excess production has lifted inventories and cut mill margins (ANZ).

Hormuz flows still run at 56% of the pre-conflict normal on ANZ's tracker, and analyst Pavel Molchanov told Reuters that scepticism is warranted after many false starts on talks (ABC).

Key themes for the ASX open

• RBA: 4.85% would be the highest cash rate in 18 years and the fifth rise of 2026 (ABC). The board also releases new forecasts in its Statement on Monetary Policy. The AU VIX closed Monday at 11.46 (+5.86%).
• Economy: 1.0% is CBA's forecast for GDP growth by mid-2027, down from 1.8%, with unemployment rising to 5.1% against a previous peak forecast of 4.8% (ABC).
• Bank results: WBC.AU closed Monday at $37.19 (+1.00%) after its full-year result. NAB.AU reports Thursday and MQG.AU Friday.
• Airlines: QAN.AU closed Monday at $8.80 (+0.11%), before the fall in crude.
• Defensives: A-REITs fell 0.41% and consumer staples 1.39% on Monday, ahead of the rate decision.

Economic calendar today

• 14:30 AEDT: RBA rates decision and Statement on Monetary Policy
• 15:30 AEDT: RBA Governor Michele Bullock media conference
• Wednesday 02:00 AEDT: US JOLTS job openings, durable goods and factory orders
• Wednesday 11:30 AEDT: ABS job vacancies, household spending and selected living cost indexes

What to watch

• 0.62% on ASX futures compares with -0.51% for the S&P 500, and Monday's ASX session closed before the crude fall.
• 9.69 points separate the US VIX at 21.15 from the AU VIX at 11.46.
• AMD.US reports after the US close on Tuesday, the US midterm elections run the same day, and US payrolls follow on Friday with +63,000 forecast (Market Index).

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