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ASX 200 futures down 0.05% as the Australian dollar drops below 70 US cents before August CPI

AUD/USD falls 0.48% to 0.6987 after the RBA hike, the US 30-year yield hits 5.62% and WTI drops 4.22%

Mixed3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

S&P 5007,671-0.17%
NASDAQ26,798-0.09%
VIX16.04-0.19%
Gold4,215+1.12%
Brent102.67-2.48%
AUD/USD0.6987-0.48%

ASX 200 futures down 0.05% as the Australian dollar drops below 70 US cents before August CPI

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.05%

ASX 200 futures were down 5 points, or 0.05%, at 08:25 AEST on 30 September 2026, after the S&P 500 fell 0.17% to 7,670.84 as the US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.62%, its highest since 2002. AAPL.US fell 2.66% to US$329.40, the largest single drag on the S&P 500 at about 17 bps. AUD/USD fell 0.48% to 0.6987, a two-month low, a day after the RBA lifted the cash rate 25 bp to 4.60% and Governor Michele Bullock said the board had considered holding.

Overnight drivers

AUD/USD traded at 0.6987 at 08:30 AEST on 30 September 2026, down 0.48% from 0.7021 a day earlier.

  • Australian dollar: 0.6987, -0.48%, the first print below 70 US cents in two months. Commonwealth Bank analysts said the RBA message "was not hawkish enough" to support the currency. A lower AUD lifts the AUD value of US-dollar revenue at CSL.AU and RMD.AU.
  • US long bonds: the 30-year yield closed at 5.62% after six straight daily rises, and the 10-year at 5.255%, up 1.5 bp. New York Fed President John Williams said he backs one more increase late this year and sees no urgency for October. CBA.AU closed Tuesday at $150.27 (-0.82%).
  • Crude: November WTI at US$88.69, down 4.22% from Monday's US$92.60 settle, and November Brent at US$102.67 (-2.48%), after Saudi Arabia's Red Sea crude exports recovered. XOM.US fell 0.72%. WDS.AU closed Tuesday at $31.48 (-0.91%) and STO.AU at $8.49 (-1.05%).
  • Gold: December futures at US$4,215.10/oz at 08:30 AEST, up 1.12% from Monday's US$4,168.40 settle. GDX.US rose 1.34% and NEM.US 0.90%.

Overnight Wall Street

The S&P 500 closed at 7,670.84 on 29 September 2026, down 12.85 points or 0.17%, its second straight fall.

  • S&P 500: 7,670.84 (-0.17%)
  • Nasdaq: 26,797.54 (-0.09%)
  • Dow: 51,349.92 (-0.26%)
  • VIX: 16.04 (-0.19%)

AAPL.US fell 2.66% after Bank of America said AI shopping agents could move purchases outside the Apple ecosystem. META.US rose 3.24%, AMAT.US 5.19% and ORCL.US 3.91%, which offset most of the Apple drag. FICO.US lost 26.52% after the Federal Housing Finance Agency put VantageScore on the same mortgage pricing grid as FICO scores. The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest since 2014, and August JOLTS job openings came in at 7.097 million against 7.228 million expected. S&P 500 futures traded 0.20% higher and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.29% higher at 08:30 AEST.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

December gold futures traded at US$4,215.10/oz at 08:30 AEST on 30 September 2026, up 1.12% from Monday's settle.

  • Gold: US$4,215.10/oz (+1.12%)
  • Brent (November): US$102.67 (-2.48%); December Brent US$95.47 (-2.41%)
  • WTI (November): US$88.69 (-4.22%)
  • Iron ore 62%: about US$96.70/t
  • AUD/USD: 0.6987 (-0.48%)
  • US dollar index: 101.38 (+0.18%)

November Brent expires today, so the December contract at US$95.47 becomes the front month and sits about US$7 below November. BHP.US, the BHP ADR, rose 0.28% to US$84.82 and RIO.US fell 0.26% to US$94.16. Both closed higher in Sydney on Tuesday: BHP.AU +1.39% to $60.63 and RIO.AU +0.82% to $164.37.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Gold miners: gold futures +1.12% after Monday's 3.54% fall. NST.AU closed Tuesday at $23.29 (-0.77%), EVN.AU at $13.26 (-0.30%) and WGX.AU at $5.39 (+2.08%).
  • Energy: WTI -4.22% and November Brent -2.48% into WDS.AU and STO.AU, which fell 0.91% and 1.05% on Tuesday.
  • USD earners: AUD/USD at 0.6987. CSL.AU closed at $182.30 (+0.21%) and RMD.AU at $31.68 (+0.13%).
  • Technology: CDA.AU closed at a record $64.43 (+23.93%) and MP1.AU at $20.63 (+9.44%) on Tuesday. The Nasdaq fell 0.09% overnight while AMAT.US gained 5.19%.

Economic calendar today

  • 11:30 AEST: ABS monthly CPI, August 2026. Forecast 4.0% year on year against 3.5% in July; trimmed mean forecast 3.6%, unchanged.
  • 11:30 AEST: ABS building approvals, August 2026
  • 11:30 AEST: ABS engineering construction activity, June quarter 2026
  • 22:30 AEST: US personal income and outlays for August, including the PCE price index
  • 22:30 AEST: US GDP and corporate profits (BEA)

What to watch

  • The August CPI print at 11:30 AEST against the 4.0% forecast, the day after the RBA moved the cash rate to 4.60%.
  • AUD/USD at 0.6987 against the 0.70 level it held before the RBA decision.
  • The US 30-year yield at 5.62% into the PCE release at 22:30 AEST.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →