ASX 200 futures rise 0.2% to 8,882 as the Fed holds on a 10-2 vote; Alphabet falls 9% after hours

Sentiment: neutral ASX 200 futures: +0.2% (8,882 at 7:06am AEDT)

ASX 200 futures rose 0.2% to 8,882 by 7:06am AEDT on 29 October 2026 (ABC), after the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on a 10-2 vote; the US 10-year yield rose 5.2 bps to 5.045%. Alphabet shares fell 9% in extended trading after its third quarter revenue and earnings missed estimates and free cash flow came in at negative US$9.07bn, while Microsoft rose 2% on 48% Azure growth (CNBC). Markets price about an 80% chance of a Fed hike in December (ABC), and the RBA meets on Tuesday 3 November after Wednesday's 4.3% annual CPI.

Overnight drivers

• Fed hold, 10-2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a 25 bp hike (CNBC). Chair Kevin Warsh said economic growth "has strengthened" and gave no forward guidance. The US 10-year yield rose to 5.045% from 4.993%, and the 30-year to 5.361%. ASX financials closed Wednesday with CBA.AU at $163.01, up 0.61%, and NAB.AU at $40.42.
• AI spending results: GOOGL.US closed the regular session up 1.34% at US$324.89 before falling 9% after hours; Alphabet held 2026 capex guidance at US$195bn to US$205bn and expects more than US$300bn in 2027 (CNBC). MSFT.US closed at US$531.01, down 0.06%, then rose 2% after revenue of US$92.28bn beat the US$90.69bn estimate. ORCL.US rose 10.73% to US$144.54 after forecasting US$30bn of free cash flow by fiscal 2029 (Stockhead). NXT.AU closed Wednesday at $6.29, up 9.39%.
• US chips +1.75%: the Philadelphia semiconductor index rose to 11,684.00, a fourth straight gain. WTC.AU closed Wednesday at $41.05 and XRO.AU at $64.09.
• Crude: December WTI rose 2.04% to US$101.94 and December Brent 0.19% to US$114.10. WDS.US fell 1.34% to US$22.85, which converts to A$32.37 per WDS.AU share at 0.7059, 0.75% above WDS.AU's $32.13 close after Wednesday's 3.16% fall.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,743.98 (+0.28%)
• Nasdaq: 26,549.85 (+0.27%)
• Dow: 52,475.10 (+0.19%)
• VIX: 16.91 (-3.48%)

The S&P 500 rose 21.38 points to 7,743.98 on 28 October 2026, a third straight gain, as the US technology ETF added 0.80% and financials 0.45%. ServiceNow fell 15% and Fortinet 25% in extended trading on results, after NOW.US closed down 3.00% and FTNT.US down 5.90% in the regular session (CNBC).

The Russell 2000 rose 0.41% to 2,830.51. US third quarter GDP and personal income data land at 23:30 AEDT tonight, and the US midterm elections fall on 3 November, the same day as the RBA decision.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,081.2/oz (+0.16%, December contract)
• Brent: US$114.10 (+0.19%, December contract)
• Iron ore 62%: US$90.70/t (flat, ABC)
• AUD/USD: 0.7059 (+0.43%)

December gold at US$4,081.2 converts to about A$5,782/oz at 0.7059, after the All Ords Gold index gained 2.61% on Wednesday; NST.AU closed at $25.42 and EVN.AU at $11.95. BHP.US fell 0.46% to US$82.22, which converts to A$58.24 per BHP.AU share, 0.34% above its $58.04 close; December copper rose 0.45% to US$6.683/lb. RMD.US eased 0.25% to US$250.17, which converts to A$35.44 per RMD.AU share, 0.89% above its $35.13 close even with the AUD up 0.43%.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Rare earths: LYC.AU reports its September quarter today (Stockhead) after a 7.29% gain to $12.51 on Wednesday.
• Retail AGMs: WES.AU, WOW.AU, JBH.AU and SUL.AU hold AGMs today (Stockhead). WES.AU fell 2.14% to $77.14, JBH.AU 2.30% to $70.66 and SUL.AU 3.20% to $13.00 on Wednesday after the CPI print.
• Energy: WDS.US implies a 0.75% premium to WDS.AU; STO.AU closed Wednesday at $9.02, down 1.74%.
• Rates: the RBA cash rate sits at 4.60% (ABC), and ABC puts the chance of a hike on 3 November at more than 75%.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEDT: Australia international trade price indexes, September quarter
• 23:30 AEDT: US third quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays
• Fri 30 October, 11:30 AEDT: Australia producer price indexes, September quarter
• Fri 30 October: SGR.AU trading halt ends at the open unless lifted earlier

What to watch

• 8,882 on futures sits 34.7 points above Wednesday's ASX 200 close of 8,847.3, which ended 86 points below the session high of 8,933.3 set before CPI.
• 4.714% was the US 2-year yield after the Warsh press conference (CNBC), against the 3.75% to 4% Fed target range.
• 10.96 was the ASX 200 VIX close on Wednesday, down 2.27%, and the US VIX fell 3.48% to 16.91.

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