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ASX 200 futures rise 0.35% as the US 10-year falls below 5%; Alphabet drops 12.6%

US 10-year 4.989%; Nasdaq -1.38%; XLV.US +2.40%; AMZN.US -6.5% after hours; Rio Tinto halts Oyu Tolgoi underground; RMD.AU reports

Mixed4 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,892+0.50%
S&P 5007,720-0.30%
NASDAQ26,185-1.38%
Dow52,343-0.25%
VIX17.2+1.71%
Gold4,033-0.45%
Brent115.64+0.28%
AUD/USD0.7034-0.32%
SPI_F8,924+0.35%

ASX 200 futures rise 0.35% as the US 10-year falls below 5%; Alphabet drops 12.6%

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.35% (up 32 points at 8:13am AEDT)

ASX 200 futures rose 32 points, or 0.35%, by 8:13am AEDT on 30 October 2026 (Market Index), after the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 5.6 bps to 4.989% and US health care, property and financials led a rotation out of technology. GOOGL.US fell 12.64% to US$283.82, its largest one-day fall on record, after search revenue missed estimates for a second straight quarter and free cash flow came in at negative US$9.1bn (Market Index). US third quarter GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate against a 3.1% estimate, and markets cut the odds of a December Fed hike to 76% (Market Index).

Overnight drivers

  • US 10-year below 5%: the 10-year yield fell to 4.989% from 5.045% and the 30-year to 5.329%, after the September PCE price index rose 0.5% in the month, in line with forecasts. XLF.US rose 1.44% and XLRE.US 2.21%. CBA.AU closed Thursday at $166.39, up 2.07%, and GMG.AU at $27.30, up 2.32%.
  • Alphabet and AI spending: GOOGL.US fell 12.64% and the Nasdaq 1.38%, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index down 1.42% to 11,518.20, ending a four-day run. AMZN.US closed down 4.25% at US$243.79, then fell 6.5% in extended trading on weak fourth quarter sales guidance (Reuters). WTC.AU closed Thursday at $40.59, XRO.AU at $63.62 and NXT.AU at $6.17, after the ASX information technology index fell 1.11%.
  • US health care +2.40%: XLV.US hit a record after LLY.US rose 6.6% on a raised revenue outlook (Reuters). RMD.US closed up 1.06% at US$252.83 before posting first quarter revenue up 6% to US$1.4bn and non-GAAP EPS of US$2.91 against a US$2.68 estimate (Resmed, Investing.com). That close converts to A$35.94 per RMD.AU share at 0.7034, 1.60% above its $35.38 close.
  • Copper and Oyu Tolgoi: Rio Tinto suspended underground operations at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia after a rockfall linked to a seismic event injured 15 workers (The Deep Dive). RIO.US fell 3.12% to US$83.25 and December copper 1.23% to US$6.590/lb.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,720.39 (-0.30%)
  • Nasdaq: 26,184.73 (-1.38%)
  • Dow: 52,342.56 (-0.25%)
  • VIX: 17.20 (+1.71%)

The S&P 500 fell 23.59 points to 7,720.39 on 29 October 2026, ending a three-day run, while the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 1.2% (Market Index). XLC.US lost 1.87% and XLK.US 1.18%; XLV.US gained 2.40%, XLRE.US 2.21%, XLP.US 1.54% and XLU.US 1.53%. NYSE advancers beat decliners 1.95 to 1, and CAT.US fell 9.25% after holding its growth targets (Reuters).

The Russell 2000 rose 1.01% to 2,859.22. NOW.US fell 26.95% and FTNT.US 20.09% after their Wednesday results, and MSFT.US eased 0.16% to US$530.14 as it raised about US$25bn in its first US investment-grade bond sale since 2017, with orders above US$100bn (Market Index).

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,033.3/oz (-0.45%, December contract)
  • Brent: US$115.64 (+0.28%, December contract)
  • Iron ore 62%: below US$90/t (Bloomberg, 29 October)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7034 (-0.32%)

December gold at US$4,033.3 converts to about A$5,734/oz at 0.7034, and December silver fell 2.69% to US$52.22; NST.AU closed Thursday at $25.28 and EVN.AU at $12.00. BHP.US fell 0.49% to US$81.82, which converts to A$58.16 per BHP.AU share, 1.12% above its $57.52 close as the AUD slipped. WDS.US rose 1.36% to US$23.16, which converts to A$32.93 per WDS.AU share, 0.57% above its $32.74 close; December WTI was flat at US$102.86.

Key themes for the ASX open

  • Health care: RMD.AU trades on its first quarter result today after RMD.US implied a 1.60% premium; CSL.AU closed Thursday at $197.50 and COH.AU at $142.20.
  • Rio Tinto: RIO.AU closed Thursday at $149.69, down 0.59%, before the Oyu Tolgoi underground suspension and the 3.12% fall in RIO.US.
  • Technology: WTC.AU, XRO.AU and NXT.AU open after a 1.38% Nasdaq fall and a 6.5% after-hours drop in AMZN.US.
  • Contractors: CVL.AU reported record quarterly revenue of $324m before the open (AFR); the shares closed Thursday at $1.63.
  • Rates: the RBA cash rate sits at 4.60% ahead of the Tuesday 3 November decision, after September quarter CPI of 4.3%.

Economic calendar today

  • 11:30 AEDT: Australia producer price indexes, September quarter
  • Fri 30 October: Bank of Japan policy decision
  • 23:30 AEDT: US employment cost index, September quarter
  • Tue 3 November: RBA cash rate decision and the US midterm elections

What to watch

  • 8,891.8 was the ASX 200 close on Thursday, up 0.50%; 32 points higher on futures puts the implied open near 8,924, above Thursday's 8,899.6 session high.
  • 10.763 was the ASX 200 VIX close on Thursday, down 1.75%, while the US VIX rose 1.71% to 17.20.
  • 76% was the market-implied chance of a December Fed hike after the PCE and GDP data (Market Index).

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →