ASX 200 futures flat at 8,914 as Intel drops 28.6%; gold falls 3.3% before Tuesday's RBA

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.04%

ASX 200 futures were down 4 points, or 0.04%, at 8,914 by 8:30am AEDT on 2 November 2026 after the S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07 on Friday, when results from Intel and Amazon deepened doubts about returns on AI spending. INTC.US lost 28.58% on a guidance miss and the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell 7.20%. Gold fell 3.29%, Brent rose 2.37%, and the ASX 200 opens from 8,908.1 with a Westpac result in hand and the RBA decision due Tuesday at 2:30pm AEDT.

Overnight drivers

• AI spending: Philadelphia Semiconductor index -7.20% to 10,688.80, with a loss of more than 15% for October. AMD.US fell 10.88%, DELL.US 10.77% and NVDA.US 4.22%. The ASX 200 carries little AI exposure, and its futures moved 0.04%.
• Gold: December futures -3.29% to US$3,898.90/oz, a one-year low, after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for at least two more US rate rises. NEM.US fell 4.64%. Local gold names start from Friday closes of $25.27 for NST.AU (-0.04%) and $11.76 for EVN.AU (-2.00%).
• Crude: January Brent +2.37% to US$113.43 after a tanker was hit by explosive devices in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, according to the UK maritime agency UKMTO. XOM.US rose 2.16% and CVX.US 1.75%, both after beating profit forecasts. WDS.AU closed Friday at $33.33 (+1.80%) and STO.AU at $9.25 (+1.31%).
• Bonds: US 10-year yield -6.0 bps to 4.929% as money moved into Treasuries, closing October with its biggest monthly fall in nearly three years. The Australian 10-year sits at 5.13%, about 20 bps above the US yield.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,580.07 (-1.82%)
• Nasdaq: 25,437.00 (-2.86%)
• Dow: 51,770.31 (-1.09%)
• VIX: 19.42 (+12.91%)

The Nasdaq Composite closed 7.8% below its 6 October record after its steepest one-day fall since 5 June. XLK.US lost 4.89%, while XLE.US gained 1.91% and XLP.US 1.41%. AMZN.US ended 1.41% lower after paring larger losses; its free cash flow for the quarter was negative by nearly US$35 billion. VIX touched 23.93 during the session before closing at 19.42.

Binance reported a US$6.3 billion theft, and customers pulled a further US$3.6 billion after trading resumed. COIN.US fell 10.62%. Bitcoin traded at US$77,826 (+0.39%). STOXX 600 closed -0.36%, DAX -0.85% and FTSE 100 +0.07%.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$3,898.90/oz (-3.29%)
• Brent: US$113.43 (+2.37%)
• Iron ore: US$90.80/t (-0.7%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7028 (-0.04%)

Silver fell 5.93% to US$49.28/oz and copper 1.83% to US$6.48/lb on Friday, so precious and base metals both fell while crude rose. BHP.US lost 3.25% with iron ore moving less than 1%. The December Brent contract printed US$117.64 (+2.40%), about US$4 above January, so quoted oil levels differ this morning by contract rather than by direction.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Banks: WBC.AU reported a full-year cash profit of $7.0 billion against consensus of $6.96 billion. Net interest margin fell 7 bps to 1.87%, under the 1.89% analysts expected. The dividend rose 1% to $1.54 and CET1 capital stood at 12.5%. WBC.AU closed Friday at $36.82 (-1.05%). NAB.AU reports Thursday, MQG.AU Friday and ANZ.AU on 9 November.
• RBA: ABC reports the four major banks' economists expect a 25 bps rise to 4.85% on Tuesday, which would be the fifth increase. September CPI ran at 4.3% annually.
• Housing: Cotality's national index fell 1.2% in October, the seventh monthly decline in a row, with Brisbane and Perth leading the falls.
• Local tech: NXT.AU closed Friday at $5.87 (-4.86%) and XRO.AU at $62.10 (-2.39%), before the US chip selling. WTC.AU closed at $40.81 (+0.54%).
• KMD.AU: KMD Brands updated the market on a non-binding proposal and entered exclusivity with US group Bluestar Alliance. The stock closed Friday at $1.495 (+0.67%).

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEDT: ABS building approvals, September
• During the session: RatingDog China PMI, October
• Overnight: US construction spending, September, and US manufacturing data
• Tuesday 14:30 AEDT: RBA rates decision

What to watch

• Volatility gauges sit 8.6 points apart: the ASX VIX closed Friday at 10.83 against 19.42 for the US VIX.
• ASX 200 futures at -0.04% compare with -1.82% for the S&P 500, and Friday's ASX session closed before the US chip selling began.
• Tuesday brings the RBA statement and the governor's media conference, then the US midterm elections; US payrolls follow on Friday.

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