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Weekend Hormuz reclosure erases Friday's oil relief; Brent US$96.88

Iran reshut the Strait of Hormuz on 18 April; USS Spruance disabled the Iranian-flagged Touska on 19 April. Brent jumped to US$96.88, WTI to US$90.33. SPI settled 9,060 (+0.99%) pre-escalation.

Bearish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,947-0.09%
S&P 5007,126+1.20%
Dow49,447+1.79%
Brent96.88+11.56%
AUD/USD0.7133-0.39%

Weekend Hormuz reclosure erases Friday's oil relief; Brent US$96.88

Sentiment: bearish

Weekend: Hormuz shut again, USS Spruance disables Iranian ship

  • Iran's IRGC reimposed the Strait of Hormuz closure on Saturday 18 April
  • Zero tankers crossed the strait on Sunday 19 April; two LPG tankers turned back
  • USS Spruance fired several rounds into the engine room of Iranian-flagged Touska in the Gulf of Oman after a six-hour warning
  • Brent front-month: US$96.88 Sunday vs Friday settle US$86.84 (+11.6%)
  • WTI front-month: US$90.33 vs Friday US$79.78 (+13.2%)

On Friday 17 April, Brent settled US$86.84 after Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi called the Strait of Hormuz 'completely open'; the S&P 500 closed a third consecutive record at 7,126.06 (+1.20%). On Saturday 18 April, Iran's IRGC reversed course and reshut the strait, citing US 'breaches of trust' over the ongoing naval blockade. On Sunday 19 April, Trump posted that the USS Spruance had 'blow[n] a hole in the engineroom' of the Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman after the vessel ignored a six-hour warning; the president added 'NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!' and threatened to 'knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran.' Iran's military has promised retaliation.

Where that leaves the Monday ASX open

SPI 200 futures settled Friday-night at 9,060.0 (+89.0 / +0.99%), a +113-point implied gap above the 17 April cash close at 8,946.9. That settle predates Saturday's reclosure and Sunday's Spruance action; Wall Street futures resume Sunday evening AEST into an oil tape ~12% above Friday's settle. Energy (WDS.AU, STO.AU, BPT.AU) and precious metals (NST.AU, EVN.AU, RMS.AU) are the weekend's beneficiaries; industrials and consumer cyclicals face the oil-input drag.

Commodities & FX

  • Brent front-month (Sunday 19 April): US$96.88 (+11.6% vs 17 April settle)
  • WTI front-month (Sunday 19 April): US$90.33 (+13.2%)
  • Gold spot: held above US$4,800 into Friday's close; futures touched US$4,917 intraday
  • Iron ore 62% Fe (Qingdao, 17 April): US$106.85/t (-0.24%)
  • AUD/USD (Friday close): 0.7133 (-0.39%); three consecutive weekly gains into Friday

Key themes into the ASX open

  • Energy gap higher — Brent US$96.88 is US$10 above Friday's settle. WDS.AU and STO.AU led the energy sub-index to -0.5% on Friday; the weekend gap inverts that. PDN.AU +2.8% Friday on a production-guidance raise, with its March-quarter numbers due this week. BPT.AU also leveraged to the Brent print.
  • Gold safe-haven bid — Gold held US$4,800 through Friday's risk-on session; futures touched US$4,917 intraday. Hormuz reclosure and the Spruance incident reinstate the catalyst. NST.AU, EVN.AU, RMS.AU the largest ASX gold weights into quarterly reporting.
  • Miners into BHP.AU (Wed 22 April 8:30 AEST) — Iron ore US$106.85/t steady. BHP's February half delivered underlying profit US$6.2bn and a US$0.73 dividend. RIO.AU and S32.AU Q3 production reports follow the same window.
  • AUD cuts both ways — AUD/USD 0.7133 closed Friday with three consecutive weekly gains on ~75% May RBA hike pricing. The weekend shock pulls in opposite directions: oil-linked terms of trade on one side, risk-off USD bid on the other.
  • Ceasefire clock — The two-week Trump-Iran ceasefire expires mid-week. US delegation (VP JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner) travels to Pakistan for talks; Iran has set no date. No deal in hand.

Economic calendar today

  • 11:30 AEST — ABS releases Taxation Revenue 2024-25 and Government Finance Statistics 2024-25 (historical series, low market sensitivity)
  • No tier-one Australian data scheduled
  • Iran/Hormuz headlines the overnight news flow

What to watch

  • US equity futures resume Sunday evening AEST — the gap versus Friday's 7,126.06 S&P cash close is the early read on weekend positioning
  • Whether WTI holds above US$90 into the Sydney close — the energy sub-index needs that for the gap to stick
  • BHP.AU March-quarter production Wednesday 22 April 8:30 AEST — iron ore shipments, copper volumes, met coal guidance
  • Tesla (TSLA.US) Q1 earnings after the US close Wed 22 April (Thu AEST); Alphabet (GOOGL.US) reports the same session
  • Ceasefire expiry mid-week — headlines compound the oil tape
  • OPEC+ meeting 3 May: any signal of accelerated production into a renewed Hormuz disruption

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This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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