ASX 200 set for flat open; Brent +4.47% overnight on Hormuz mining escalation — 24 April 2026 morning brief

SPI futures: +1 point (flat) Sentiment: mixed

SPI futures point to a 1-point higher open for the ASX 200 from Thursday's 8,793.4 close, after the S&P 500 closed -0.41% at 7,108.40 and Brent crude jumped 4.47% to US$106.47 overnight on fresh Hormuz minelaying threats. The Nasdaq -0.89% led US losses as software weakness and Middle East escalation dragged the index back from an intraday high at 7,147.78. Gold -0.93%, copper -1.69%, and AUD/USD -0.42% to 0.7131 set up divergent opens for the energy and materials complexes locally.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,108.40 (-0.41%, -29.5 pts)
• Nasdaq: 24,438.50 (-0.89%, -219.1 pts)
• Dow: 49,310.32 (-0.36%, -179.7 pts)
• VIX: 19.31 (+2.06%)

The S&P 500 printed a fresh intraday high at 7,147.78 before fading into the close. VIX closed at 19.31, up 2.06%, with a day-high of 21.56 mid-session after President Trump ordered the US Navy to destroy Iranian vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation followed the resignation of Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reported overnight. Software was the single largest sector drag on the Nasdaq; the intraday range of 4.31pp (24,209.74 to 24,664.87) points to a wider rotation than a single-factor move.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Brent Jun 26: US$106.47 (+4.47%, +US$4.56)
• WTI Jun 26: US$97.00 (+4.35%, +US$4.04)
• Gold Jun 26: US$4,708.60/oz (-0.93%, -US$44.40)
• Iron ore SGX IODEX May 26: US$106.90/t (+0.47% 24h)
• Copper May 26: US$6.025/lb (-1.69%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7131 (-0.42%, prev 0.7161)

Crude's 4%+ single-session gain is the largest commodity move in play for the AU open. Gold -0.93% halted a three-session advance and copper -1.69% kept base metals on the defensive. Iron ore held near US$107/t on SGX — the stable datapoint in an otherwise split commodity tape. AUD/USD at 0.7131 sits roughly 30bp below Thursday's close and remains the translation variable for offshore USD revenue in ASX 200 names.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy — Brent +4.47% to US$106.47 and WTI +4.35% to US$97.00 overnight with Trump authorising US Navy strikes on Iranian vessels laying mines in Hormuz. STO.AU, WDS.AU, and KAR.AU closed Thursday with a tailwind from the same story; the overnight extension is larger than the Thursday AU-session move.
• Gold miners — Spot gold -0.93% to US$4,708.60/oz with VIX +2.06%. EVN.AU, NEM.AU, and NST.AU hold the largest bullion exposures in the ASX 200; the overnight move pulled against the Thursday AU session in the complex.
• Financials streak — XFJ closed Thursday down for a ninth consecutive session. CBA.AU, WBC.AU, NAB.AU, and ANZ.AU each contributed to the sequence; a tenth red day into the Friday close would make it the longest losing run on the sub-index for 2026.
• Iron ore vs copper divergence — SGX IODEX +0.47% to US$106.90/t while LME copper -1.69% — base metals split again. BHP.AU, RIO.AU, and FMG.AU hold both exposures; the FX offset (-0.42% AUD/USD) adds 42bp to AUD translation of USD revenue.
• USD earners — AUD/USD at 0.7131 sits at the bottom of its April 2026 range. CSL.AU, CPU.AU, and JHX.AU each translate USD revenue into more AUD at this spot than the 0.72 level used in FY26 consensus assumptions.

Economic calendar today (AEST)

• 11:30 — ABS Labour Force microdata, 1982–March 2026. Reference release; not market-moving.
• 19:30 — US durable goods orders (March, preliminary release).
• 23:45 — US S&P Global flash PMIs (April services and manufacturing).

What to watch into the Friday close

• XFJ at session 9-to-10: another red day makes the financials sell-off the longest streak of 2026 on the sub-index.
• Oil-miner spread at the 4pm close: energy's overnight lift versus the gold and copper drag is the widest single-factor dispersion of the session so far.
• AUD/USD behaviour around 0.7100 into the ANZAC Day long weekend (Saturday 25 April).

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