ASX 28 April 2026: US records, CPI Wed, Mag 7 earnings

Sentiment: mixed Setup: Wall Street to closing records overnight (S&P 500 +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.20%) with VIX -3.69% to 18.02 and AUD +0.52% to 0.7191. The constructive overnight tape is balanced against a Mag 7 split — NVDA.US +4.01% / GOOGL.US +1.72% versus AAPL.US -1.27% / AMZN.US -1.09% — Wednesday's local CPI, and Wednesday-Thursday Big Tech earnings.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,173.91 (+0.12%) — closing record
• Nasdaq: 24,887.10 (+0.20%) — closing record
• Dow: 49,167.79 (-0.13%)
• VIX: 18.02 (-3.69%)

S&P 500 and Nasdaq logged closing records on 27 April 2026 with stalled US-Iran peace talks the only macro news flow. AI-semis led: NVDA.US +4.01% to US$216.61, MU.US +5.60% to US$524.56. GOOGL.US +1.72% to US$350.34 marked Wednesday's earnings reference. The reverse side: AAPL.US -1.27% and AMZN.US -1.09% softened into Wednesday-Thursday Q1 reports. MSFT.US +0.05% and META.US +0.53% finished effectively flat. Communication services, financials and technology drove the sector mix; consumer staples were the only major sector lower.

Commodities & FX

• Gold (Jun 26): US$4,703.10/oz (+0.20%)
• WTI (Jun 26): US$96.50 (+0.13%)
• Brent (Jun 26): US$101.73 (+0.04%)
• Copper (May 26): US$6.0835/lb (+0.07%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7191 (+0.52%)

AUD/USD added ~0.4c overnight to 0.7191 on the AU-US rate-differential setup — RBA cash rate at 4.10% with a third 25bp hike to 4.35% fully priced for May, contingent on Wednesday's CPI. Sensitivity rule-of-thumb: every 1c of AUD strength shaves ~$30m from CSL.AU FY26 NPAT on consensus. Iron ore Singapore reference held the US$106/t area on firm Chinese hot-metal output of 2.37mt/day weekly average. China Q1 industrial profits +15.5% YoY released Monday underpins the volume call into miner names.

Key themes for the open

• Miners after a flat Monday: BHP.AU +0.11%, RIO.AU +0.78%, FMG.AU -0.05% Monday close. Overnight backdrop: copper US$6.0835/lb steady, China industrial profits +15.5% YoY supportive.
• Energy lagged Brent firmness Monday: WDS.AU -1.47%, STO.AU -1.80% the prior session. Today's open: Brent US$101.73, Strait of Hormuz supply disruption still active.
• Banks into CPI: CBA.AU -0.81%, ANZ.AU -0.80%, NAB.AU +0.30%, WBC.AU -0.08% Monday. Wednesday's CPI is the May RBA hike trigger.
• USD-earners: CPU.AU -1.30%, RMD.AU -1.33% Monday on AUD strength; CSL.AU +1.40% bucked the move. AUD now 0.7191 vs 0.7153 Friday close (+0.52%).
• AI-adjacent reads: NXT.AU -1.87%, GMG.AU +0.96%, BRN.AU +3.33% Monday. Wednesday's Mag 7 capex commentary from MSFT.US, META.US, GOOGL.US and AMZN.US is the next data point.

Catalysts this week (AEST)

• Tuesday 28 Apr — quiet domestic session into CPI eve.
• Wednesday 29 Apr 11:30 AEST — ABS Q1 2026 + March 2026 CPI. Feb monthly read 3.7% YoY headline / 3.3% YoY trimmed mean. The May RBA call hinges on this print.
• Wednesday 29 Apr (US after-hours) — MSFT.US, META.US, GOOGL.US, AMZN.US Q1 results.
• Thursday 30 Apr (US after-hours) — AAPL.US Q1 results with Tim Cook succession commentary in focus.

What to watch

• CPI Wednesday 11:30 AEST: 3.3% trimmed mean YoY is the line — print at-or-above keeps the May RBA hike to 4.35% on; a downside surprise opens the door to a hold.
• Mag 7 capex guidance: MSFT.US, META.US, GOOGL.US, AMZN.US, AAPL.US commentary feeds NXT.AU, GMG.AU and AU AI-adjacent names.
• AAPL.US -1.27% Monday: caution into Thursday's print, with the Tim Cook succession overlay.
• AUD at 0.7191: ~0.4c lift from Friday changes USD-earner FY26 NPAT translation; ~$30m drag on CSL.AU per 1c of AUD strength.
• Brent in US$100s: Strait of Hormuz disruption persists, but AU energy names were lower on Monday — WDS.AU -1.47%, STO.AU -1.80%.

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