ASX 200 set to open lower as Wall Street wobbles on AI concerns; March CPI in focus

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.64%

US equities sold off on 28 April 2026, with the Nasdaq Composite finishing at 24,663.80 (-0.90%) after a midday OpenAI revenue report hit megacap AI names. ASX 200 futures sit at 8,710.7 (-0.64%) heading into the local open, against an ABS March CPI release at 11:30 AEST.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,138.80 (-0.49%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 24,663.80 (-0.90%)
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 49,141.93 (-0.05%)
• CBOE VIX: 17.83 (-1.05%)
• Russell 2000: 2,755.99 (-1.15%)

The decline concentrated in AI and semiconductor stocks after a Tuesday-session report (TheStreet, Motley Fool) on OpenAI missing internal revenue targets. The Dow-vs-Nasdaq spread of 85 basis points shows where the damage landed: defensive industrials cushioned the headline indices while chipmakers and AI infrastructure took the hit. The CBOE VIX still closed -1.05% to 17.83 — option flow priced the move as a single-name OpenAI revenue story rather than a systemic risk-off shock.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold (Jun futures): US$4,612.40/oz (+0.09%)
• Brent crude: US$104.02 (-0.36%)
• WTI crude: US$99.43 (-0.50%)
• Copper: US$5.978/lb (+0.07%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7186 (-0.03%)

Gold sits at US$4,612.40 into the early Asian session. Brent fell to US$104.02 with WTI -0.50% to US$99.43, against reports that the UAE has formally exited OPEC — a structural change that removes a ~4 mb/d swing producer from the cartel quota framework. Copper held above US$5.97/lb, and AUD/USD was steady at 0.7186 with no overnight RBA-vs-Fed differential print.

Key themes for ASX open

• Nasdaq -0.90% gives ASX tech a falling offshore reference. WTC.AU and XRO.AU enter against the OpenAI revenue story as the dominant single-name catalyst.
• No fresh offshore catalyst for iron ore miners. BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU enter the session driven by sector flow and the 11:30 AEST CPI release.
• OPEC structural news lands alongside -0.36% Brent. WDS.AU and STO.AU enter against Brent at US$104.02 plus the UAE-OPEC exit headline — energy positioning reflects both the spot move and the longer-dated quota story.
• Gold producers face flat bullion at US$4,612. NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU enter with no overnight gold catalyst and AUD/USD steady at 0.7186.
• Dow-vs-Nasdaq dispersion of 85 basis points sets a defensive backdrop. CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU enter as relative defensives if the AI-names weakness extends into Asia.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST — ABS Consumer Price Index, March quarter and March monthly. February's monthly print was 3.70% YoY, down from 3.80% in January.
• 22:30 AEST Tue / 00:00 AEST Wed — US Q1 advance GDP and PCE inflation prints.
• Overnight US (Wed pre-AU-open) — Q1 results from META.US and GOOGL.US after the bell.

What to watch

• The 11:30 AEST CPI print is the day's dominant domestic input. February's 3.70% YoY read kept the print above the RBA's 2-3% target band; the March quarterly will inform the next RBA Board meeting on 6 May.
• Whether the AI-names selloff persists into Asia, or fades as a single-name OpenAI revenue story given the VIX -1.05% close.
• Whether the UAE-OPEC headline carries through to Brent and the AU energy complex this session, or holds as longer-dated structural news.

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