ASX faces oil-shock open after Brent +1.33% close, AUD slips to 0.7117
Sentiment: bearish
Overnight Wall Street
The S&P 500 closed at 7,135.95 on 29 April 2026, down 2.85 points or 0.04%, while the Dow Jones lost 280.12 points to 48,861.81 (-0.57%) and the NASDAQ added 9.44 points to 24,673.24 (+0.04%). The CBOE VIX climbed from 17.83 to 18.81 (+5.50%).
- S&P 500: 7,135.95 (-0.04%)
- NASDAQ: 24,673.24 (+0.04%)
- Dow Jones: 48,861.81 (-0.57%)
- VIX: 18.81 (+5.50%)
The session was anchored on Powell's final FOMC decision as Fed chair (no change in the cash rate) and after-bell results from four mega-cap names — Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft. The Dow's 280-point fall was concentrated in industrials and energy components ahead of the announcements; the NASDAQ held flat as semiconductor and software constituents offset early-session weakness. VIX climbed 5.50% while the S&P closed only 0.04% lower; implied volatility moved more than realized, consistent with hedging into the after-bell tech reports.
Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)
- Brent crude: US$111.91 (+1.33%) — intraday range US$103.27–US$112.14
- WTI crude: US$108.49 (+1.51%)
- Gold (Jun 26): US$4,557.30/oz (-1.11%) — intraday range US$4,522.20–US$4,624.30
- Copper (May 26): US$5.93/lb (-0.80%)
- AUD/USD: 0.7117 (-0.92%)
Brent's 1.33% close print understates the intraday picture: the contract opened at US$104.18, traded down to US$103.27, then rallied US$8.87 to a high of US$112.14 — an 8.4% off-low move. Reports of a UAE exit from OPEC and Iran-related supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz drove the rebound, alongside US fuel inventory tightening.
Gold lost ground despite the AUD's -0.92% slide. The AUD/USD print of 0.7117 is supportive for AUD-denominated revenues at iron-ore and energy exporters but a headwind for USD-priced inputs at retailers and airlines.
Iron ore 62% Fe at Qingdao traded near US$110/t at the most recent reliable mid-week print (the April average was US$109.34/t).
Key themes for ASX open
- Energy leverage: WDS.AU closed +2.01% at $33.05 on Wednesday and STO.AU finished +0.39% at $7.77; Brent then rallied US$8 off intraday lows during the US session to close at US$111.91 (+1.33%).
- Bank earnings backdrop: NAB.AU closed -1.24% at $39.67 after the bank guided first-half credit impairment charges to roughly double, and CBA.AU fell -1.39% to $172.18. WBC.AU lost 1.04% to $38.22; the financials sub-index closed down for a ninth consecutive session.
- Iron ore bellwethers split: BHP.AU closed -0.87% at $54.95 and RIO.AU -0.77% at $170.80, while FMG.AU finished +0.55% at $20.22. With 62% Fe Qingdao around US$110/t and a softer AUD, the sub-sector enters Thursday's open without a single directional driver.
- Gold producers: NST.AU closed +0.42% at $21.59 and EVN.AU -0.95% at $12.57. AUD-priced gold reaction to the overnight US$50 spot fall depends on how much of the AUD's -0.92% slide survives the open.
- RBA hawkish risk: Local headlines flagged a possible RBA double-hike scenario after this week's CPI print. Rate-sensitive REITs GMG.AU (+0.14% to $28.94) and CHC.AU (+0.40% to $19.89) closed flat-to-slightly-firm.
Economic calendar today
- 11:30 AEST: Australia private sector credit (March) — RBA-watched indicator
- Overnight: US Q1 GDP advance estimate
- Overnight: Eurozone Q1 GDP flash
What to watch
- Whether Brent sustains above US$110 through the AU session — the close at US$111.91 sits less than a dollar from the day high.
- Whether financials extend to a tenth consecutive decline session given the NAB credit impairment guidance.
- AUD/USD behaviour around 0.7100 after a -0.92% session.
- After-bell US tech earnings reaction in NDX futures and the implication for ASX-listed software names like XRO.AU (closed -0.18% at $79.30).
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