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Wall Street caps best month since 2020; ASX opens +1% as RBA call looms

S&P 500 above 7,200 for the first time; Caterpillar drives Dow toward 50K, Apple posts record $111B Q2 services revenue.

Bullish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,750+0.97%
S&P 5007,209+1.02%
NASDAQ24,892+0.89%
Dow49,652+1.62%
VIX16.89-10.21%
Gold4,630+0.02%
Brent111.68+1.16%
AUD/USD0.7201-0.01%

Wall Street caps best month since 2020; ASX opens +1% as RBA call looms

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +1.0% (cash open tracking +0.97% to 8,749.8)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,209.01 on 30 April 2026, up 1.02% — its first close above 7,200 and the best monthly advance (+10.75%) since November 2020. CAT.US ripped higher post-earnings on Q1 revenue +22%, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.62% to 49,652.14, within 350 points of 50,000 for the first time. AAPL.US then posted Q2 revenue of US$111.2B (+17% YoY) and a record services line of US$30.98B in after-hours, setting up a positive open for global tech sentiment.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,209.01 (+1.02%) — first close above 7,200, best month since November 2020 (+10.75%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 24,892.31 (+0.89%) — record close, +15.29% MoM
  • Dow Jones: 49,652.14 (+1.62%) — +7.14% MoM, closing in on 50,000
  • VIX: 16.89 (-10.21%) — lowest read in roughly eight weeks

The Dow's lead reflected an earnings rotation rather than tech leadership. CAT.US led the index with a double-digit post-earnings gain after Q1 revenue grew 22%, while MSFT.US fell 5% as guidance flagged sharply higher AI capex and META.US dropped 8.6% on its own Q1 print. GOOGL.US and QCOM.US placed top of the S&P 500. After the bell, AAPL.US delivered EPS of US$2.01 versus US$1.94 consensus, raised the quarterly dividend to US$0.27 from US$0.26, authorised a US$100B buyback, and guided June quarter revenue +14–17% — the company's first report under the post-Tim-Cook succession plan.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,630.30/oz (+0.02%) — flat
  • Brent crude: US$111.68 (+1.16%) — second straight close above US$110
  • WTI crude: US$105.84 (+0.73%)
  • Copper: US$6.023/lb (+0.71%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe CFR Qingdao: US$107.18/t (+0.03%) — flat day-on-day
  • AUD/USD: 0.7201 (-0.01%) — anchored despite Q1 trimmed mean CPI at +3.5% YoY

Energy is the most direct read across to local listings: Brent at US$111.68 is the second straight close above US$110, supporting WDS.AU and STO.AU revenue. Iron ore flat at US$107.18/t leaves BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU without a fresh catalyst overnight. Copper at US$6.02 holds a fortnight high, marginally helpful for OZL.AU and S32.AU.

Key themes for the ASX open

  • Resources mixed: Brent +1.16% lifts energy names while iron ore flat caps the major miners; copper +0.71% holds at recent highs
  • AAPL.US tech read-across: record services revenue of US$30.98B and a +14–17% June quarter revenue guide supports sentiment for XRO.AU, WTC.AU, NXT.AU and ALU.AU
  • Banks vs RBA: futures markets are pricing a 60–70% probability of a +25bp RBA hike to 4.35% on Tuesday 6 May, with net-interest-margin implications for CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU
  • Gold neutral: USD gold flat at US$4,630.30 with AUD/USD also flat at 0.7201 leaves AUD-translated gold unchanged for NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU
  • CAT.US read-across: industrial demand strength is a positive signal for ASX cyclicals such as ALD.AU and BLD.AU; CAT.US Q1 revenue +22% is the strongest top-line print from the US industrials cohort this earnings season

Economic calendar today (AEST)

  • 11:30 — ABS Producer Price Index Q1 2026 (the only domestic release; April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI already printed at 51.0, expansion)
  • 22:30 — US Personal Income and PCE for March (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, released after the AU close)
  • Through Tuesday — US ISM Manufacturing prints Monday US session; RBA decision Tuesday 6 May at 14:30 AEST is the dominant local catalyst into next week

What to watch

  • The Dow sits 348 points below the 50,000 mark — the index has never traded above that level in cash session
  • The VIX at 16.89 is the lowest reading in approximately eight weeks; the S&P 500 monthly range was 605 points
  • AUD/USD held 0.7201 despite the trimmed mean CPI surprising at +3.5% YoY on 29 April — a sign the May rate move is largely priced
  • Brent has closed above US$110 for two consecutive sessions; AU energy enters Friday with the strongest commodity backdrop of any sector
  • Apple's Q2 services revenue of US$30.98B is an all-time high; if AAPL.US holds its after-hours bid, US tech opens the next session near record-high territory

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →