ASX brief — 7 May 2026: Wall Street records and Iran deal hopes lift SPI futures +1.2%
Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +1.2% (~+105 points)
US stocks closed at record highs overnight on reports of a near-final US-Iran agreement and clean AMD/Supermicro Computer earnings beats. The S&P 500 rose 1.46% to 7,365.12 — its first close above 7,300 — and the Nasdaq jumped 2.02% to 25,838.94. SPI futures imply ASX 200 opens around 8,785 from yesterday's 8,680.5 close.
Overnight Wall Street
- S&P 500: 7,365.12 (+1.46%, +105.90)
- Nasdaq: 25,838.94 (+2.02%, +512.82)
- Dow: 49,910.59 (+1.24%, +612.34)
- VIX: 17.39 (flat at +0.06%)
Two clean catalysts drove the session. Axios reported the US and Iran are nearing a deal that includes a moratorium on nuclear enrichment — Brent fell more than 8% to under US$101 on the news, while equities priced it as de-escalation rather than oil-recession risk. AMD.US beat Q1 earnings and lifted Q2 revenue guidance; Supermicro Computer (SMCI.US) also topped on hyperscaler-driven demand, lifting NVDA.US, INTC.US and the wider semi complex. Russell 2000 also closed at a new record — breadth was not tech-only.
Commodities & FX
- Gold: US$4,703.10/oz (+2.95%) — second straight session higher
- WTI crude: US$96.21 (+1.19%)
- Brent crude: ~US$101 (-8% on the session)
- Copper: US$6.19/lb (+3.35%)
- Iron ore (SGX 62% Fe): held near US$108/t this week, range-bound
- AUD/USD: 0.7242 (+0.83%)
Gold higher with equities higher is unusual but consistent with the catalyst: a US-Iran deal removes oil-driven inflation risk and pressures the trade-weighted USD, which lifts gold in dollar terms. Brent -8% while WTI +1.19% means the WTI-Brent spread compressed sharply — a structural move, not noise. For AU energy, this matters: WDS.AU and STO.AU price off Brent, not WTI, so the -8% print is the relevant tape.
The US-Iran headline matters beyond Brent. If the deal locks (timing unconfirmed), it compresses oil-price volatility — the structural ASX read is negative for energy producers (WDS.AU, STO.AU) and reduces input costs for crude-dependent names like QAN.AU (jet fuel) and BXB.AU (transport). The first morning session typically prices the producers; the input-cost beneficiaries lag a session or two.
Key themes for ASX open
- Tech / semis: AU growth-tech (NXT.AU, WTC.AU, XRO.AU) opens with Nasdaq +2.02% behind it. AMD.US beat Q1 and raised Q2 revenue guidance; SMCI.US also topped on AI-server demand.
- Energy split: Brent -8% is a direct read-through to WDS.AU and STO.AU. WTI's +1.19% offers no offset since AU LNG and oil producers are Brent-linked.
- Gold miners: NST.AU, EVN.AU, RMS.AU and WAF.AU come in with gold +2.95% to US$4,703 — back within ~US$900 of the 29 January 2026 record at US$5,595.42.
- Diversified miners: copper +3.35% supports BHP.AU and RIO.AU's copper exposure; iron ore near US$108 has been range-bound, leaving FMG.AU more sensitive to today's tape than to the overnight US move.
- USD earners: AUD/USD +0.83% to 0.7242 is a translation drag for CSL.AU, RMD.AU and CPU.AU on a daily mark.
Economic calendar today
- 11:30 AEST — ABS building approvals (March, m/m).
- 11:30 AEST — ABS international trade balance (March).
- No RBA speakers scheduled.
What to watch
- Whether the +1.2% SPI implication holds into the cash open or fades into the morning auction as overnight enthusiasm cools.
- Energy sector breadth at the open: a +1.2% index print can mask energy's drag — if WDS.AU and STO.AU are the only weak names, breadth is healthy.
- Iron ore tape into the China morning session: does it confirm or fade SGX's recent range near US$108/t.
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