ASX 200 SPI futures -1.5% as crude rebounds and US stocks fade record highs

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -1.5% (-136 points)

S&P/ASX 200 closed Thursday at 8,878.1 (+0.95%), but SPI futures point 136 points lower on Friday's open. Overnight, US equities pulled back from Wednesday's record — S&P 500 -0.38% to 7,337.11 and Dow -0.63% to 49,596.97 — while Brent crude rebounded 2.43% to US$102.49 on stalled Iran-deal progress.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,337.11 (-0.38%)
• Nasdaq: 25,806.20 (-0.13%)
• Dow: 49,596.97 (-0.63%)
• VIX: 17.08 (-1.78%)

Energy -1.95% led sector losses; Industrials -1.66% the second weakest. The session followed Wednesday's record close, when crude's earlier slide on Iran-deal hopes had carried equities higher. Trump cautioned "a deal has not yet been finalized" and threatened to resume strikes if Iran doesn't sign — that pulled the relief trade. VIX -1.78% to 17.08 says repositioning rather than panic; the index drifted lower despite the equity drawdown, which is unusual on a -0.38% S&P print.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Brent: US$102.49 (+2.43%)
• WTI: US$97.24 (+2.56%)
• Gold: US$4,699.80/oz (-0.24%)
• Copper: US$6.14/lb (-0.64%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7208 (-0.52%)

Crude's bounce reflects the Iran-deal stall — the US sent a one-page MOU through Pakistani intermediaries aimed at gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran is reviewing. UAE formally exited OPEC+ on May 1 and OPEC+ added 188,000 bpd for June — both supply-side overhangs that should cap further upside if the Iran supply pressure recedes. AUD/USD 0.7208 (-0.52%) — at this spot, USD-denominated revenue translates into more AUD per dollar at the open. Yahoo's iron ore proxy (TIO=F) printed +20.99% overnight on what looks like a contract-month roll rather than a real move; iron ore direction is inconclusive from this source today.

Key themes for ASX open

• STO.AU, WDS.AU, BPT.AU: Brent +2.43% spot says higher, but US energy sector -1.95% says lower — the first 30 minutes of the AU session will show which signal AU buyers anchor on.
• BHP.AU, RIO.AU, FMG.AU: Copper -0.64%, gold -0.24%, and the Yahoo iron ore print is unreliable today; miners likely track the SPI -1.5% lead today.
• CSL.AU, CPU.AU, RMD.AU: AUD/USD -0.52% to 0.7208 means more AUD per USD of offshore revenue, though futures -1.5% likely overwhelms the FX print near-term.
• CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU, ANZ.AU: no US bank-specific overnight catalyst; Big 4 likely track the SPI -1.5% lead through the morning session.
• GMG.AU, WES.AU, WOW.AU: low-beta defensives often outperform on futures-led down days when breadth narrows; if the open prints near -1.5% with thin participation, the relative move is the read.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: RBA standard release window — no major scheduled data on today's calendar.
• 22:30 AEST: US non-farm payrolls (first-Friday cadence — confirm timing on the day).
• Pre-open: Trump statements on Iran-deal MOU; Tehran response window within days.

What to watch

• 10:00 AEST cash open: does ASX 200 print closer to the SPI -1.5% indication, or do dip-buyers cap the gap by mid-morning?
• Energy-name dispersion: spread between STO.AU and the Brent print at 12:00 AEST tells you whether AU buyers are anchoring to spot or to the US sector.
• AUD/USD at 0.7208: a break below 0.72 extends the USD-earner translation move; a bounce above 0.7250 reverses it.
• Iran-deal headlines into the US Friday open — every move in WTI between 10:00 AEST and 22:30 AEST has to price in fresh statements.
• VIX 17.08 vs AU-VIX 12.04: AU-implied vol is below US-implied vol into a -1.5% futures print; the gap usually compresses if the cash open holds the indication.

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