ASX set for softer open despite Wall Street tech surge — Monday 11 May 2026
Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.5%
Overnight Wall Street
The S&P 500 closed at 7,398.93 on Friday 8 May 2026, up 0.84%, while the NASDAQ Composite added 1.71% to 26,247.08 — both at fresh records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat at 49,609.16 (+0.02%) and the VIX.INDX settled at 17.19 (+0.64%).
AI-memory infrastructure names drove the NASDAQ session: MU.US closed +15.51% at US$746.79 and SNDK.US gained 16.60% to US$1,562.34, with commentary tying DRAM and NAND demand to AI training capex cycles. Mega-cap was split — AAPL.US +2.01%, TSLA.US +4.02%, NVDA.US +1.77% closed firm; MSFT.US -1.41% and META.US -1.16% gave ground.
The macro tape: April US nonfarm payrolls printed +115,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%. FactSet flags Q1 earnings season tracking an 84% S&P 500 beat rate — the highest since Q2 2021.
Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)
- Gold (COMEX, Jun 26): US$4,730.70/oz (+0.42%)
- Brent (Jun 26): US$101.29 (+1.23%); WTI (Jun 26): US$95.42 (+0.64%)
- Copper (COMEX, Jul 26): US$6.30/lb (+1.95%)
- Iron ore (SGX TSI 62% Fe): ~US$106/t (range-bound)
- AUDUSD.FOREX: 0.7230 (+0.27%)
Energy and metals print firm into the AU open. Iron ore around US$106/t sits inside a wide sell-side dispersion for the year — Citi US$85/t, Goldman Sachs US$93/t, JPMorgan US$95/t, Vale US$100/t.
Key themes for ASX open
SPI 200 futures point to a -42 point / -0.5% open for XJO.INDX from Friday's close of 8,744.4 — despite Friday's Wall Street rally, the carry-through is Friday's local sector drag.
- Banks: NAB.AU closed -2.91% Friday on its 2026 half-year result — cash earnings of A$3,558m and an 85c interim dividend (franked 100%, payable 2 July). The sector saw WBC.AU -2.93%, CBA.AU -1.85%, ANZ.AU -1.50%. ANZ.AU trades ex-dividend today on its 83c interim payment from its prior result; the ex-div drag is mechanical.
- Gold producers: NEM.AU (Friday +0.18%) and NST.AU (Friday -2.49%) enter the session against gold at US$4,730.70/oz.
- Energy: STO.AU and WDS.AU enter the session against Brent +1.23% at US$101.29.
- Iron ore majors: BHP.AU (-0.97%), RIO.AU (-0.84%), FMG.AU (-0.70%) print Friday with iron ore steady around US$106/t; no China property catalyst overnight.
- AI-memory readthrough: No direct AU pure-plays on the US AI-memory tape; technology-adjacent names will track IXIC.INDX +1.71%.
Economic calendar today
- All session: ANZ.AU ex-dividend day — mechanical index drag
- No top-tier domestic data releases
The week's heavyweight prints fall Tuesday and Wednesday — Federal Budget (Tue 19:30 AEST, Treasurer Chalmers), Westpac consumer confidence and NAB business confidence (Tue), Wage Price Index and lending indicators (Wed).
What to watch
- Whether banks find a floor after Friday's NAB-led drag — sector breadth was -1.5% to -2.9% across the Big Four
- Energy and gold response to firmer commodities — Brent +1.23% and gold +0.42% overnight
- AUD/USD at 0.7230 — +0.27% session move; translation impact on USD-revenue earners is small in magnitude
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