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ASX morning brief, 13 May 2026 — hot US CPI sinks chips; the ASX prices Chalmers' Budget

SPI futures point to a 7-point dip; QCOM.US -11.5% leads an overnight chip sell-off as the ASX opens to its first read on Tuesday night's Federal Budget.

Mixed3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

S&P 5007,401-0.16%
NASDAQ26,088-0.71%
Dow49,761+0.11%
Gold4,727+0.85%
AUD/USD0.7243-0.15%

ASX morning brief, 13 May 2026 — hot US CPI sinks chips; the ASX prices Chalmers' Budget

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.1% (SPI -7 points)

SPI futures point to a 7-point dip at the 10:00 AEST open after Wall Street faded Monday's record — the S&P 500 closed -0.16% at 7,400.96, the Nasdaq -0.71% at 26,088.20, and QCOM.US fell 11.5%, its worst session since 2020. The trigger was a hot US April CPI of 3.8% year-on-year (vs 3.7% expected, the fastest annual pace since May 2023), which also pushed WTI above US$102 on Strait of Hormuz supply worries. Locally, the open is the first session to price Treasurer Chalmers' Tuesday-night Federal Budget: limits on negative gearing, a pared-back capital-gains-tax discount, discretionary-trust reforms and a $14.8bn fuel-security package.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,400.96 (-0.16%)
  • Nasdaq: 26,088.20 (-0.71%)
  • Dow: 49,760.56 (+0.11%)
  • VIX: 17.99 (-2.12%)

It was a chip problem, not a market problem — the Dow finished higher on industrials and energy while the Nasdaq's slide was all semiconductors. QCOM.US -11.5% led the move after a 41% run over the prior five sessions and a record close Monday; INTC.US -6.8% and AMD.US -2.3% followed. The 3.8% CPI reading — the fastest annual pace in three years — reset rate-cut odds and weighed on the longest-duration parts of the market. The VIX still fell to 17.99, so the session looked closer to rotation than fear.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,727/oz (+0.85%)
  • WTI: US$102.4 (+4.4% in the US session)
  • Brent: US$107.8 (+3.5%)
  • Copper: US$6.63/lb (+1.6%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe (Qingdao): ~US$111/t (last quoted 11 May), holding above US$110
  • AUD/USD: 0.7243 (-0.15%)

Crude prices climbed overnight: WTI +4.4% to US$102.4 and Brent +3.5% to US$107.8 in the US session on Strait of Hormuz supply worries — a tailwind for STO.AU and BPT.AU, a headwind for the rate-cut case. Iron ore above US$110/t and copper +1.6% leave the bulk and base-metal miners with more support behind a softer AUD at US$0.7243; gold at US$4,727/oz keeps NEM.AU and NST.AU near Tuesday's highs.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Budget reaction: The negative-gearing limits and a trimmed CGT discount land on property economics. Listed property closed lower into the Budget — LLC.AU -3.5% Tuesday, SGP.AU -1.5%, MGR.AU -0.9% — and the read-through runs to the major banks' mortgage books (CBA.AU, WBC.AU, NAB.AU and ANZ.AU all 1.4% to 2.1% lower Tuesday). Separately, the $14.8bn fuel-security package — a $7.5bn Fuel and Fertiliser Security Facility plus a $3.2bn reserve — directs government money to domestic fuel supply, with ALD.AU and VEA.AU the most exposed listed names.
  • Energy: BPT.AU and STO.AU follow a US session where WTI added 4.4% to US$102.4 on Strait of Hormuz supply worries.
  • Iron ore miners: BHP.AU (+2.5% Tuesday), RIO.AU (+3.1%) and FMG.AU (+2.3%) led Tuesday's gains with 62% Fe above US$110/t on Chinese mill restocking.
  • Gold miners: NEM.AU (+4.4% Tuesday) and NST.AU (+3.2%) were among Tuesday's biggest gainers; bullion sits at US$4,727/oz into Wednesday.
  • Stock-specific: ALL.AU reports first-half results today, with UBS flagging EBITA near A$1.12bn and net profit around A$798m; Life360 (360.AU) fell 10.9% Tuesday after its first-quarter update. CSL.AU remains below A$100 after this month's slide.

Economic calendar today

  • 10:00 AEST: ASX 200 opens — first session to price the Federal Budget
  • 11:30 AEST: Wage Price Index, Q1 2026 (ABS) — wages feed the RBA's next-move debate after a recent 25bp hike and April's 3.8% CPI print abroad
  • During the session: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AU) first-half results

What to watch

  • Whether firm iron ore and US$102 crude can offset the Budget drag on banks and listed property — Tuesday already split that way, with miners up and financials down on a -0.36% index day.
  • The 11:30 AEST Wage Price Index for Q1 — wage growth is the variable the RBA has flagged as central to its rate path.
  • ALL.AU's first-half result — UBS has flagged double-digit growth into the print.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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