ASX 200 set to open 0.5% higher as jobs shock cools RBA hike bets; Nvidia blowout leaves tech flat

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.5%

SPI futures point to a +0.5% open (about +42 points) on Friday 22 May 2026, after Wall Street closed Thursday with the Dow up 0.55% but the Nasdaq flat — NVDA.US slipped about 0.9% despite an 85% jump in quarterly revenue to US$81.6 billion. The bigger local driver is yesterday's jobs shock: April unemployment jumped to 4.5% (the highest since November 2021), gutting bets on further RBA tightening and helping the ASX 200 close 1.47% higher on Thursday at 8,621.7.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,445.72 (+0.17%)
• Nasdaq: 26,293.10 (+0.09%)
• Dow: 50,285.66 (+0.55%)
• VIX: 16.76 (−3.90%)

Thursday was a rotation, not a rally. The Dow added 276 points while the Nasdaq closed within a whisker of flat. Nvidia (NVDA.US) reported revenue up 85% to US$81.6 billion, guided the current quarter to US$91 billion and announced an US$80 billion buyback — yet the stock fell about 0.9%, the market's verdict that the AI trade had already priced perfection. Cyclicals and small-caps led instead; the Russell 2000 rose roughly 2.6%. A US flash manufacturing PMI of 55.3 (up from 54.5 in April) pushed Treasury yields higher, which capped the rate-sensitive Nasdaq. The VIX fell 3.9% to 16.76, its lowest in weeks.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,544/oz (+0.04%)
• Brent: US$104.66 (+2.03%)
• WTI: US$97.77 (+1.47%)
• Copper: US$6.35/lb (+0.89%)
• Iron ore 62%: ~US$110/t (little changed)
• AUD/USD: 0.7155 (little changed)

Brent jumped 2.0% to US$104.66 after Iran's Supreme Leader directed that the country's near-weapons-grade uranium not be sent abroad, reviving supply concerns — a lift for energy names WDS.AU and STO.AU at the open. Copper firmed 0.9% to US$6.35/lb. Iron ore held near US$110/t, leaving heavyweight miners BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU without a fresh overnight steer. Gold sat at US$4,544/oz — roughly A$6,350 with the Aussie at 0.7155 — near record territory in local-currency terms for NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: Brent +2.0% (US$104.66) and WTI +1.5% (US$97.77) hand WDS.AU and STO.AU an overnight lead.
• Rate-sensitives repriced: after the 4.5% jobs print, money markets price just a 15% chance of a June RBA hike and only one rise by November — relevant for banks such as CBA.AU and REITs such as GMG.AU.
• Tech tracks a flat Nasdaq: NVDA.US −0.9% despite the beat; WTC.AU separately confirmed it has begun redundancies, and XRO.AU trades against the same global backdrop.
• Gold miners: bullion flat at US$4,544/oz keeps NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU near record AUD prices.
• Iron ore steady (~US$110/t) leaves the index's largest weights — BHP.AU, RIO.AU, FMG.AU — anchored to Chinese steel demand rather than an overnight move.

Economic calendar today

• Domestic calendar is light after Thursday's labour-force shock; no major ABS release is scheduled.
• April's jobs detail underlined the softness: full-time roles fell 10,700 and the number of unemployed rose 33,000 to 692,500.
• US tonight: Conference Board Leading Economic Index at 10:00 ET (about 00:00 AEST Saturday).
• US tonight: University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final) — the May preliminary hit a record-low 48.2.

What to watch

• The RBA's 16 June decision (2:30pm AEST) is the next domestic catalyst; markets price about 15% odds of a hike, down sharply after the jobs print, with the cash rate at 4.35%.
• Whether Thursday's US rotation — Dow +0.55%, Nasdaq +0.09%, Russell 2000 +2.6% — extends or fades into the AU session.
• Oil's follow-through after Brent's 2.0% jump; CommBank trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 1.6% and lifted its peak-unemployment forecast to 4.6%.

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