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ASX 200 set to open 0.4% lower, giving back part of Friday's gold-led rally with Wall Street shut

SPI futures point 0.4% lower after Friday's 1.37% gold-and-bank surge; US markets were shut for Independence Day, leaving gold near US$4,200 the main lead.

Mixed3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,844+1.37%
NASDAQ25,833-0.80%
Dow52,900+1.14%
VIX15.81-2.11%
Gold4,200+1.81%
ES_F7,569+0.54%
NQ_F30,002+1.51%

ASX 200 set to open 0.4% lower, giving back part of Friday's gold-led rally with Wall Street shut

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.4% (about 35 points lower) Last close (Fri 3 Jul): 8,844.4 (+1.37%)

The S&P/ASX 200 is set to open about 0.4% lower on Monday, handing back part of Friday's 1.37% climb to 8,844.4 after a gold-and-bank-led rally that ran with no Wall Street lead because US markets were shut for Independence Day. Gold miners powered Friday's gain: GMD.AU rose 16.70%, NST.AU 11.75% and EVN.AU 8.83% as spot bullion pushed above US$4,100. Bullion has since firmed to near US$4,200, the one supportive lead into an open that still points lower after Friday's outsized rally.

Overnight setup

  • US cash markets shut Friday for the July 4 holiday, observed Friday 3 July, so there is no overnight Wall Street close to price in. The last full US session was Thursday 2 July.
  • SPI futures point about 35 points lower (-0.4%), a softer open as the index gives back part of Friday's outsized rally rather than following firmer US futures.
  • US index futures are higher: S&P 500 futures +0.54% at 7,569 and Nasdaq-100 futures +1.51% at 30,002, off Thursday's chip-led lows, so the offshore lead for local tech WTC.AU and XRO.AU is steadier than Thursday's cash close suggests.
  • Europe rose on Friday: Germany's DAX +0.8%, the FTSE 100 +0.25% and France's CAC 40 +0.4% while the US sat out.

Wall Street's last print (Thursday 2 July)

  • Dow Jones: 52,900 (+1.14%, a record close)
  • S&P 500: 7,483 (+0.00%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 25,833 (-0.80%)
  • Russell 2000: 2,996 (-0.55%)
  • VIX: 15.81 (-2.11%)

The US June jobs report landed soft, with 57,000 jobs added against about 110,000 expected and the jobless rate at 4.2%. That eased bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike and split the market by style. Value and defensives held up, with AAPL.US +4.84%, WMT.US +2.78% and MSFT.US +1.62% lifting the Dow to a record. Semiconductors and Tesla led the decline: TSLA.US -7.49%, MU.US -5.49%, META.US -4.90%, AMD.US -4.26% and NVDA.US -1.39%. That session is now two days old and futures have since risen, so its clearest signal for the ASX is the softer-rates read that lifted gold, not the chip selling.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,200/oz (+1.81%)
  • Brent crude: US$72.13 (+0.46%)
  • WTI crude: US$68.32 (-0.54%)
  • Copper: US$6.24/lb (+1.11%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6935 (steady)

Gold is the standout for the local open, near US$4,200 after rebounding from a nine-month low around US$3,942 earlier in the period. Firmer copper adds a second supportive line for materials, while crude is little changed, with Brent near US$72 and WTI near US$68, leaving energy names STO.AU and WDS.AU with a flat lead. The Australian dollar is steady near 0.6935 with the US dollar index barely moved, so currency is not a factor for exporters today.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Gold producers carry the strongest overnight lead: bullion near US$4,200 keeps NST.AU, NEM.AU, EVN.AU and Friday's standout GMD.AU (+16.70%) in focus after single-name gains of 7% to 17%.
  • The index gives back ground: SPI futures at -0.4% suggest Monday reverses part of Friday's 120-point rally, so a firm gold lead sits against a lower headline open.
  • Banks led Friday alongside the miners, with CBA.AU up 2.41%, and the softer US jobs read keeps the rate backdrop supportive for the big four.
  • Iron ore majors were the exception to Friday's rally: FMG.AU fell 3.16% while the index rose, and RIO.AU finished flat, leaving the bulk miners out of step with the gold names.
  • Local tech takes a steadier cue than Thursday's US cash close, with Nasdaq-100 futures +1.51% over the long weekend for WTC.AU and XRO.AU.

Week ahead (AEST)

  • No RBA meeting this week. The next Reserve Bank Board decision lands on 11 August; markets price about a 15% chance of a hike and no cut before late 2027.
  • US markets reopen Monday night after the long weekend, giving the first fresh Wall Street read since Thursday.
  • New financial-year flows continue to shape early-July positioning after last week's FY26 close.

What to watch

  • Whether Friday's gold-miner gains hold or fade at the open, given single-session moves of 7% to 17% and a lower index start.
  • Whether the firm gold lead or the -0.4% futures signal sets the tone once trade begins.
  • Thin, catalyst-light conditions until US markets reopen tonight and set the next overnight direction.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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