ASX Morning Brief, 3 July 2026: Soft US jobs, a weaker dollar, and a firmer SPI open

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.4%

A June US payrolls print of just 57,000 jobs, roughly half the 115,000 consensus, sent the US dollar down 0.54% to 100.85 and split Wall Street: the Dow set a record 52,900.07 (+1.14%) while the Nasdaq fell 0.80% on a second day of semiconductor selling. AAPL.US led the Dow with a 4.84% gain to US$308.63, even as TER.US dropped 13.63% and KLAC.US fell 11.51%. SPI 200 futures sit at 8,761.5, pointing to an ASX 200 open near 0.4% above Thursday's 8,724.5 close, with a firmer AUD at 0.6922 the main local input.

Overnight drivers

• June US jobs miss: payrolls rose 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus, and May was revised down to 129,000. The unemployment rate ticked to 4.2%, held down by participation falling to 61.5%, its lowest since March 2021, while leisure and hospitality shed 61,000 roles. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month. The soft print pushed the US dollar down 0.54% to 100.85 and lifted Fed rate-cut pricing.
• Semiconductor selling: TER.US -13.63%, KLAC.US -11.51%, MRVL.US -9.84% and AMD.US -4.26% pulled the SMH.US semiconductor ETF down 4.54% for a second session.
• Weaker dollar, firmer gold: AUD/USD rose 0.36% to 0.6922 and gold gained 0.29% to US$4,137.8/oz as the dollar fell. The 62% Fe iron ore benchmark held at US$98.25/t, down 0.11% on the day and 5.3% over the month.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,483.24 (unchanged)
• Nasdaq: 25,832.67 (-0.80%)
• Dow: 52,900.07 (+1.14%)
• VIX: 16.15 (-2.65%)

Apple's 4.84% jump, plus MCD.US +4.16%, V.US +3.15% and WMT.US +2.78%, lifted the price-weighted Dow to a record, while a second day of chip losses weighed on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 finished unchanged at 7,483.24, the Russell 2000 fell 0.55% to 2,996.11, and the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.49%. The soft-jobs reaction stayed concentrated in the dollar and in rate-sensitive large caps rather than a broad risk-on move, and the VIX eased 2.65% to 16.15.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,137.8/oz (+0.29%)
• Brent: US$71.64 (-0.22%)
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: US$98.25/t (-0.11%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6922 (+0.36%)

A weaker dollar drove the commodity moves that matter locally. Gold firmed and the AUD rose, both supportive for the big miners, while Brent slipped 0.22% to US$71.64 and WTI eased to US$68.55, a mild negative for WDS.AU and STO.AU. Copper held at US$6.17/lb.

Key themes for ASX open

• Gold miners: gold at US$4,138 and a softer dollar point to a supportive open for NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU.
• USD earners: AUD at 0.6922, up 0.36%, is a translation drag for CSL.AU, RMD.AU, COH.AU and JHX.AU.
• Iron ore majors: US$98.25/t and a 5.3% monthly slide leave BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU with no overnight boost.
• Tech sentiment: the chip-led Nasdaq fall is a soft lead for WTC.AU and XRO.AU, which hold no direct semiconductor exposure.
• Banks and consumer: a record Dow led by MCD.US, V.US and WMT.US reflects the rate-cut read that also supports local consumer staples and REITs.

Economic calendar today

• No scheduled domestic data releases.

What to watch

• US cash markets are closed tonight for the Independence Day holiday (observed Friday 3 July), so there is no offshore lead into the weekend or Monday's ASX open.
• Next local data lands Monday 6 July with the TD-MI Inflation Gauge and ANZ-Indeed Job Ads; RBA Assistant Governor Hunter speaks Wednesday 8 July.

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