ASX 200 set to open 0.3% lower as a memory-chip selloff hits Wall Street tech

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.3%

S&P/ASX 200 futures point 0.3% lower to 8,687 for the 2 July open, tracking a Wall Street session where a memory-chip selloff pulled the Nasdaq down 0.66% while the S&P 500 held to a 0.22% loss. Micron MU.US fell 10.57% and SanDisk SNDK.US 10.62% on AI-spending and DRAM-price concerns, offset by Meta META.US surging 8.81% on new cloud-infrastructure plans. The US 10-year yield rose 5.7 basis points to 4.475% and the AUD slipped to 0.6896, a mix that pressures local gold miners and rate-sensitive banks into the open.

Overnight drivers

• Memory chips: MU.US -10.57%, SNDK.US -10.62%, AMD.US -6.89% and Broadcom AVGO.US -2.23% on renewed AI-spending scrutiny and softer DRAM pricing. The Nasdaq lost 0.66%. Australia has few chip names, but WTC.AU, XRO.AU and TNE.AU take their cue from the Nasdaq tape.
• Big-tech offset: META.US +8.81% on a cloud-infrastructure announcement, MSFT.US +3.02% and AAPL.US +1.73%. That trio capped the S&P 500 at -0.22% and left the Dow near flat at -0.03%.
• Rates and the dollar: US 10-year yield +5.7bp to 4.475%, the dollar index +0.22% to 101.41, AUD/USD -0.37% to 0.6896. Higher yields keep rate pressure on the big four; a weaker AUD lifts USD earners CSL.AU, COH.AU and RMD.AU.
• Commodities lower: gold -0.81% to US$4,049/oz, Brent -0.52% to US$71.20, WTI -0.85% to US$68.00, and iron ore near a 10-month low around US$99/t. Resources open on a weak lead: BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU on iron ore, WDS.AU and STO.AU on crude, NST.AU and EVN.AU on gold.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,483.23 (-0.22%)
• Nasdaq: 26,040.03 (-0.66%)
• Dow: 52,305.24 (-0.03%)
• VIX: 16.59 (+0.85%)

Chip stocks led the decline. Micron MU.US fell 10.57% and SanDisk SNDK.US 10.62%, AMD.US 6.89% and Broadcom AVGO.US 2.23%, on renewed AI-spending scrutiny and softer memory pricing. Meta META.US ran 8.81% on a cloud-infrastructure announcement and Microsoft MSFT.US added 3.02%, which is why the S&P 500 lost only 0.22% while the Nasdaq fell 0.66%. ADP private payrolls came in below 100,000 for the first time since March, a soft labour print ahead of the June employment report due later this week.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,049/oz (-0.81%)
• Brent: US$71.20 (-0.52%)
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: near US$99/t (10-month low)
• AUD/USD: 0.6896 (-0.37%)

Gold's 0.81% slip to US$4,049 tracked the firmer dollar and the 5.7bp lift in US 10-year yields, a weak lead for NST.AU and EVN.AU at the open. Iron ore sitting near a 10-month low around US$99/t on soft Chinese demand keeps pressure on BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU. Brent at US$71.20 and WTI at US$68.00 give WDS.AU and STO.AU a lower crude lead.

Key themes for ASX open

• Resources: iron ore near US$99/t and gold at US$4,049 hand BHP.AU, RIO.AU, FMG.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU a weak overnight lead.
• Banks: US 10-year yield at 4.475% and a hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh set a higher-rate tone for CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU.
• USD earners: AUD/USD at 0.6896 means more Australian dollars per US dollar of revenue for CSL.AU, COH.AU and RMD.AU.
• Tech: the Nasdaq's 0.66% fall and the chip selloff set a weak lead for WTC.AU, XRO.AU and TNE.AU.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: Australia May international trade balance (ABS)
• Tonight: US equities close early at 1:00pm New York and are shut Friday for the 4 July holiday, thinning overnight liquidity.

What to watch

• META.US and MSFT.US strength against the overnight chip selloff sets the early tone for WTC.AU, XRO.AU and TNE.AU.
• The US June employment report, brought forward ahead of the 4 July holiday, is due before Friday's ASX session; consensus is 115,000 to 130,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.3%.

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