ASX 200 set for a flat open as a US chip selloff meets a 2.6% oil jump: Wednesday 8 July 2026

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: flat (SPI futures about 3 points lower)

Wall Street closed lower on 7 July 2026, the Nasdaq off 1.16% to 25,818.69 as a semiconductor selloff followed Samsung's quarterly results and reports that China's DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip. Marvell MRVL.US fell 7.45% and KLA KLAC.US 7.22%, while Nvidia NVDA.US held at +0.71%. SPI futures point three points lower for a near-flat ASX open, with Brent crude up 2.60% to US$76.09 cushioning the resource-heavy local index against the offshore tech weakness.

Overnight drivers

• Chip selloff: Nasdaq -1.16%. MRVL.US -7.45%, KLAC.US -7.22%, ARM.US -6.77%, AMD.US -6.51% and MU.US -4.71% led the fall after Samsung results and the DeepSeek in-house AI chip reports. NVDA.US bucked it at +0.71%. The ASX carries no large semiconductors, so the local exposure runs through growth sentiment: WTC.AU and XRO.AU.
• Oil jump: Brent +2.60% to US$76.09, WTI +2.60% to US$72.27 after tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. That supports ASX energy: WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU.
• Higher yields, firmer USD: the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 5bp to 4.53%, the US dollar index gained 0.27% and AUD/USD fell 0.44% to 0.6928. Gold slipped 1.05% to US$4,114, keeping NST.AU, NEM.AU and EVN.AU under pressure into the open.
• VIX +3.60% to 16.13: a modest step up in hedging demand that still leaves volatility below 17.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,503.85 (-0.45%)
• Nasdaq: 25,818.69 (-1.16%)
• Dow: 52,925.15 (-0.25%)
• VIX: 16.13 (+3.60%)

The Dow pulled back just 0.25% from record territory while the Nasdaq shed 1.16%: value names held and semiconductors led the decline. Marvell MRVL.US -7.45%, KLA KLAC.US -7.22%, Arm ARM.US -6.77% and AMD -6.51% were the sharpest movers, with Micron MU.US -4.71% and Taiwan Semiconductor TSM.US -4.25%. Nvidia NVDA.US closed +0.71%, the one large chip name to finish higher. The Russell 2000 fell 0.90% and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 5bp to 4.53%, adding to the pressure on rate-sensitive growth stocks.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,114/oz (-1.05%)
• Brent: US$76.09 (+2.60%)
• WTI: US$72.27 (+2.60%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: near US$98/t (steady)
• Copper: US$6.17/lb (-0.86%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6928 (-0.44%)

Crude is the clearest local positive: Brent's 2.60% gain to US$76.09 and WTI's move to US$72.27 follow the Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks and support WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU into the open. Gold's 1.05% slip to US$4,114, the firmer US dollar and the 10-year at 4.53% weigh together on NST.AU, NEM.AU and EVN.AU. Iron ore near US$98/t held steady, a neutral input for BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU, while copper eased 0.86%.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: oil's 2.60% overnight gain frames WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU as the sector most likely to open firm.
• Gold miners: gold at US$4,114 and a stronger USD set a weak starting point for NST.AU, NEM.AU and EVN.AU.
• Growth sentiment: the offshore chip selloff shapes the tone for WTC.AU and XRO.AU, neither of which is a semiconductor but both of which track global growth appetite.
• Consumer: A2 Milk A2M.AU trades ex a 28.8-cent special dividend today, which mechanically lowers its opening price.

Economic calendar today

• No first-tier ABS release is scheduled for Wednesday; the domestic data slate is light.
• A2M.AU trades ex-dividend (28.8-cent special).
• Offshore, further US semiconductor earnings and the oil market's response to the Strait of Hormuz attacks are the events that carry into the local session.

What to watch

• Whether ASX energy holds the overnight oil gain or gives it back as the Strait of Hormuz supply scare settles.
• How gold miners open against gold at US$4,114 and AUD/USD at 0.6928.
• Whether the US chip selloff spills into local growth names, given the ASX has no direct semiconductor exposure.

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