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ASX 200 set to open 0.55% lower as Iran tensions lift oil and drag the Dow down 1.1%

Wall Street split as Nvidia and Broadcom held the Nasdaq up 0.2% while the Dow fell 1.1%; SPI futures point 47 points lower.

Bearish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,785-0.21%
S&P 5007,483-0.28%
NASDAQ25,871+0.20%
Dow52,348-1.09%
VIX16.9+4.77%
Gold4,097-1.50%
Brent78.04+5.20%
AUD/USD0.6933+0.12%

ASX 200 set to open 0.55% lower as Iran tensions lift oil and drag the Dow down 1.1%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.55%

The S&P/ASX 200 is set to open 0.55% lower on Thursday, with SPI futures 47 points down, after US President Donald Trump called the Iran ceasefire "over" and reignited demand for crude that lifted Brent 5.2% to US$78.04 a barrel and pulled the Dow Jones down 1.1% (577 points) to 52,348.4. Broadcom AVGO.US rose 4.83% and Nvidia NVDA.US 3.65% on a reported Apple component deal worth potentially more than US$30 billion, holding the Nasdaq up 0.2% even as the broader US market fell. Gold slipped 1.5% to about US$4,097 an ounce as higher oil revived inflation concerns and lifted the US 10-year yield to 4.57%, a mix that sets local energy names against gold miners at the open.

Overnight drivers

  • Iran tensions: Trump called the ceasefire "over," then walked it back, saying the fighting was not "a return to full-scale war." Brent settled 5.2% higher at US$78.04 and briefly topped US$80, while WTI rose 4.4% to US$73.57. Energy names WDS.AU and STO.AU open against a firmer oil price.
  • Dow -1.1%: Travel and housing shares led the US decline, PulteGroup PHM.US -5.37%, American Airlines AAL.US -3.95% and Carnival CCL.US -3.90%, as the 10-year yield rose to 4.57%. Rate-sensitive and cyclical ASX names face the same pressure from higher yields.
  • Gold -1.5%: Bullion fell to about US$4,097 an ounce as higher oil revived inflation and rate concerns. That weighs on the large ASX gold weight, NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU.
  • AI chips steadied: NVDA.US +3.65% and AVGO.US +4.83% lifted the Nasdaq to +0.2% after recent selling. Little direct ASX read given few local semiconductors, though it steadies sentiment for tech names WTC.AU and XRO.AU.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,482.71 (-0.28%)
  • Nasdaq: 25,870.65 (+0.20%)
  • Dow: 52,348.39 (-1.09%)
  • VIX: 16.90 (+4.77%)

The Dow Jones fell 1.09% to 52,348.39 on Wednesday 8 July 2026 as travel and housing shares led the decline. PulteGroup PHM.US lost 5.37%, American Airlines AAL.US 3.95% and Carnival CCL.US 3.90% as the US 10-year yield rose to 4.57% and the higher oil price revived inflation worries. The Nasdaq held a 0.20% gain because Nvidia NVDA.US (+3.65%) and Broadcom AVGO.US (+4.83%) steadied after recent selling; Broadcom rose on a reported Apple component agreement worth potentially more than US$30 billion. The VIX rose 4.77% to 16.9, a modest lift that leaves volatility subdued by historical standards.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,097/oz (-1.5%)
  • Brent: US$78.04 (+5.2%)
  • WTI: US$73.57 (+4.4%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe: about US$98/t (little changed)
  • Copper: US$6.12/lb (+0.24%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6933 (+0.12%)

Brent crude added a further 1.4% to US$79.14 in early Thursday trade, extending Wednesday's move and keeping WDS.AU and STO.AU in focus. Iron ore held near US$98 a tonne, little changed and a neutral input for BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU. Gold at about US$4,097 leaves NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU with an overnight drag, while the Australian dollar held at US$0.6933, up 0.12%.

Key themes for ASX open

  • WDS.AU and STO.AU: Brent's 5.2% jump to US$78.04 puts energy in focus, and oil extended higher again in Asian trade.
  • NEM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU: gold's 1.5% overnight fall to about US$4,097 weighs on the local gold sector, one of the index's larger weights.
  • BOE.AU: uranium names are in focus after reports Australia could sign a nuclear cooperation agreement with India this week.
  • BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU: iron ore near US$98 a tonne is little changed for the majors, so the day's read comes from energy and gold instead.
  • WTC.AU and XRO.AU: the Nasdaq's 0.2% hold and a 4.83% Broadcom gain give local tech a steadier offshore lead than the Dow's 1.1% fall suggests.

Economic calendar today

  • No major Australian data is scheduled for Thursday 9 July. The next domestic releases are NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Confidence next week.

What to watch

  • SPI futures point 47 points (0.55%) lower, so the index opens near 8,738 against Wednesday's 8,785.1 close.
  • Energy versus gold is the sector split at the open, with oil up about 5% overnight and bullion down 1.5%.
  • The US 10-year yield at 4.57% and the VIX at 16.9 mark a modest lift in caution after the Iran headline.

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