ASX 200 set to open 8 points higher as a chip rally lifts the Nasdaq 1.30% and gold reclaims US$4,133

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.1%

Semiconductors carried Wall Street on 9 July 2026, sending the S&P 500 up 0.81% to 7,543.64 and the Nasdaq Composite 1.30% higher to 26,206.89, after SK Hynix drew more than seven times the shares on offer for its Nasdaq listing. Lumentum LITE.US rose 11.13% and Arm ARM.US 9.20%, while the buying skipped the largest AI names: Nvidia NVDA.US fell 0.66% and Alphabet GOOGL.US 0.84%. SPI futures point to an ASX 200 open 8 points higher, with gold settling 1.52% up at US$4,132.90 an ounce and Brent 2.63% lower at US$75.97 a barrel.

Overnight drivers

• Semiconductors, up 3.06%: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 3.06% and the technology sector fund XLK.US 2.18%. SK Hynix priced 177.9 million American depositary receipts at US$149 each, raising about US$26.5 billion, and the book closed more than seven times covered ahead of its Nasdaq debut under SKHY.US. Memory and optical suppliers took the flow: SNDK.US +7.59%, AMD.US +5.67%, WDC.US +5.04%, MRVL.US +4.99%, MU.US +4.52%, AVGO.US +3.20%. The ASX lists no memory, optical or analog chipmakers, so the move has no direct local counterpart.
• Gold at US$4,132.90 an ounce, up 1.52%: The metal added US$62.00 an ounce as the US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.539%. The GDX.US gold-miner fund rose 3.06% and silver 2.48%. Evolution Mining EVN.AU and Northern Star NST.AU are the local exposures.
• Brent at US$75.97, down 2.63%: Crude gave back most of the 5.20% jump it made on Wednesday when the US and Iran ceasefire collapsed. WTI settled at US$71.74, down 2.42%. Energy fell with it: XLE.US lost 1.40% and Exxon XOM.US 2.60%. Woodside's New York receipt WDS.US closed 1.38% lower.
• BHP.US up 2.06%, RIO.US up 0.78%: The two big miners' New York receipts rose after China reported June producer prices 4.1% higher year on year, the firmest factory-gate inflation in almost four years, and consumer prices up 1.0% against the 1.1% expected. Iron ore 62% Fe was last assessed near US$99 a tonne.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,543.64 (+0.81%)
• Nasdaq: 26,206.89 (+1.30%)
• Dow: 52,487.41 (+0.27%)
• VIX: 15.84 (-6.27%)

The gain sat in one sector. Technology XLK.US rose 2.18% and financials XLF.US 1.04%, while health care XLV.US slipped 0.08% and energy XLE.US lost 1.40%. Nvidia NVDA.US fell 0.66%, Alphabet GOOGL.US 0.84%, Palantir PLTR.US 2.41% and Salesforce CRM.US 2.45%, so the Nasdaq's 1.30% came from chip suppliers rather than the AI leaders that set the pace through the first half of the year.

Initial jobless claims fell to 215,000 against the 218,000 economists expected, the lowest since 23 May, and continuing claims rose 8,000 to 1.814 million. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.539% and the VIX fell 1.06 points to 15.84. PepsiCo PEP.US opened US second-quarter reporting with 6% sales growth and closed 3.25% lower after flagging weaker US consumer spending on higher petrol prices.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,132.90/oz (+1.52%)
• Brent: US$75.97 (-2.63%)
• WTI: US$71.74 (-2.42%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe Qingdao: about US$99/t (8 July assessment)
• AUD/USD: 0.6943 (+0.16%)

The two commodities that matter most to the ASX moved apart. Gold added US$62.00 an ounce and the GDX.US miners fund 3.06%, recovering most of Wednesday's 1.79% fall. Brent's 2.63% drop reverses the spike that carried the ASX energy sector up 1.67% on Thursday, and WDS.AU and STO.AU open against a crude price below Thursday's close. Copper miners rose in New York, with the COPX.US fund up 3.23% and Freeport FCX.US 5.27%, alongside China's 4.1% June producer price print.

Key themes for ASX open

• Gold miners: Gold settled at US$4,132.90/oz and the GDX.US fund rose 3.06%. EVN.AU and NST.AU are the local exposures.
• Energy: Brent settled at US$75.97, down 2.63%, unwinding most of Wednesday's 5.20% jump. WDS.AU and STO.AU led the ASX energy sector 1.67% higher on Thursday on that spike.
• Iron ore majors: BHP.US rose 2.06% and RIO.US 0.78% in New York. RIO.AU closed 3.25% lower on Thursday after Morgan Stanley cut it to Underweight and lowered its target to $149.00.
• Local technology: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.06% with no ASX equivalent to follow it. WTC.AU and XRO.AU are software businesses whose closest US comparators fell, CRM.US 2.45% and PLTR.US 2.41%.
• Banks: XLF.US gained 1.04% and JPMorgan JPM.US 1.47%, four sessions before US second-quarter bank results.

Dated catalysts (AEST)

• Fri 10 Jul, US session: SK Hynix begins trading on the Nasdaq under SKHY.US after pricing 177.9 million ADRs at US$149.
• Tue 14 Jul, 22:30: US June consumer price index.
• Tue 14 Jul: JPMorgan JPM.US, Bank of America BAC.US, Citigroup C.US and Wells Fargo WFC.US report second-quarter results and open US earnings season.

What to watch

• The ASX 200 has closed lower in four straight sessions, from 8,844.4 on 3 July to 8,762.5 on 9 July, a 0.93% decline. SPI futures point 8 points higher into the fifth.
• Technology XLK.US at +2.18% and energy XLE.US at -1.40% sat 3.58 points apart on a day the S&P 500 gained 0.81%. Narrow leadership like that leaves the index dependent on one sector holding.

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