ASX 200 set to open higher as Brent tops US$90 on Hormuz strikes

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.25%

Brent settled at US$91.58 on 21 July 2026, up 2.65%, its first close above US$90 since 11 June, after US forces struck Iran for a 10th consecutive night and a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street bought equities anyway: the S&P 500 rose 0.89% to 7,509.20 and the Nasdaq 1.29% to 25,837.21, led by memory makers SNDK.US +14.27% and WDC.US +12.51%. The ASX 200 starts from 8,793.3 with energy and copper the clearest local links to the overnight move and iron ore at US$98.7/t pulling the other way.

Overnight drivers

• Brent crude US$91.58, +2.65%: US Central Command struck Iranian military command centres, maritime capabilities and missile launch sites for a 10th straight night. A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday and its crew abandoned the vessel. Kpler counted four commodity vessels crossing Hormuz on Monday, down from seven the day before, through a waterway carrying about 20% of the world's seaborne oil. WDS.AU ($31.25), STO.AU ($7.77) and ORG.AU ($10.62) open against the highest crude price since mid-June, while QAN.AU ($10.14) pays the fuel bill.
• Houthi embargo on Saudi shipping: Yemen's Houthi militants declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia and tankers carrying Saudi crude turned back. That puts the Red Sea route shippers have been using to work around Hormuz under threat as well.
• Copper US$6.535/lb, +3.74%: copper ran harder than crude on the day and closed at its best level of the month. BHP.AU ($58.29) and S32.AU ($4.35) carry the largest ASX 200 copper exposure, and S32.AU already added 6.62% on Tuesday.
• Memory and storage repricing: SNDK.US +14.27%, WDC.US +12.51%, MU.US +12.17% and STX.US +11.14% on DRAM and NAND contract pricing. Semiconductors and software split inside the same sector, SMH.US +4.52% against IGV.US -1.25%. No ASX-listed company makes memory chips, so WTC.AU ($34.00) and XRO.AU ($69.67) inherit the sentiment, not the earnings.
• Volatility unwind: The VIX fell 8.58% to 17.05 while the Russell 2000 rose 1.53% to 2,987.40, outpacing the 0.89% S&P 500 gain.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,509.20 (+0.89%)
• Nasdaq: 25,837.21 (+1.29%)
• Dow: 52,224.64 (+0.74%)
• VIX: 17.05 (-8.58%)

US energy equities lagged the barrel. XLE.US gained 0.97% and XOP.US 2.23% against Brent's 2.65%, so equity desks paid less for the Hormuz escalation than the crude market did. The S&P 500 did its work early, reaching 7,511.47 within two hours of the open and then holding a four point band to finish at 7,509.20. Europe closed firmer, the STOXX 600 up 0.56% to 643.19, the FTSE 100 up 0.58% to 10,585.91 and the DAX up 0.66% to 25,011.35.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,087.80/oz (+1.93%)
• Brent: US$91.58 (+2.65%)
• WTI: US$84.68 (+1.74%)
• Copper: US$6.535/lb (+3.74%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe Singapore: US$98.7/t (from US$99.9/t)
• AUD/USD: 0.7000 (+0.06%)

US$4,083.00 was where bullion sat at yesterday's 16:00 AEST close, and it is US$4,087.80 now, so almost all of the 1.93% daily gain landed inside Australian trading hours and is already in NST.AU ($19.66) and EVN.AU ($10.89). The base metals split the miners. Copper at US$6.535/lb is the strongest of the group, while iron ore at US$98.7/t sits below US$100 and lower again on the day, which separates BHP.AU ($58.29) and S32.AU ($4.35) from FMG.AU ($18.52), the closest thing on the ASX to a pure iron ore holding. The Australian dollar at 0.7000 is unchanged overnight, so nothing shifts for USD earners.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: WDS.AU, STO.AU, ORG.AU and BPT.AU ($0.87) meet the first Brent close above US$90 since 11 June. BPT.AU fell 2.25% on Tuesday and STO.AU 0.89%, so two of them start the session lower while the barrel starts it higher.
• Miners: copper +3.74% against iron ore at US$98.7/t sets BHP.AU and S32.AU apart from FMG.AU, which closed 1.33% lower on Tuesday against BHP.AU's 1.30% gain.
• Technology: SMH.US +4.52% gives WTC.AU and XRO.AU a firmer offshore reference, after XRO.AU added 2.05% and WTC.AU 0.86% locally on Tuesday.
• Banks: CBA.AU -0.41%, NAB.AU -0.98%, ANZ.AU -1.19% and WBC.AU -1.20% on Tuesday, a third straight session of financials selling ahead of Thursday's labour force print.
• Gold miners: EVN.AU +5.63% and NST.AU +3.26% led Tuesday's local session, and bullion holding US$4,087.80 overnight gives them nothing further to price.

Economic calendar today

• No scheduled Australian macro release.
• LYC.AU, PDN.AU and WGX.AU report quarterly updates today. WGX.AU closed 2.93% higher on Tuesday and LYC.AU 2.18%.
• HUB.AU closed 4.18% lower on Tuesday following its quarterly update.

What to watch

• Hormuz crossings ran at four vessels on Monday against seven on Sunday, the thinnest traffic of this escalation, and most of it used the northern lane near Iran's coast.
• Thursday 11:30 AEST brings the June labour force report. Consensus sits near 19,000 jobs added with unemployment at 4.4%, against May's 40,300 gain and a 4.4% rate.
• Interest rate markets price about 5 basis points of tightening for the RBA's August meeting and 18 basis points across the rest of 2026.

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