ASX 200 set to open 39 points higher as the US 10-year backs off a two-year high

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.45%

The S&P 500 closed at 7,666.60 on 2 September 2026, up 0.46%, after the US 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.818%, its highest since November 2023, and then settled back near 4.78%. Nvidia NVDA.US rose 3.21% to US$224.41 to lead the Dow, and Dell DELL.US closed 15.81% higher at US$492.20 after lifting its FY27 revenue forecast on AI server demand. SPI futures point to a 39 point higher open, though Australia's own 10-year yield set a 15-year high of 5.223% on Wednesday and five ASX 200 members trade ex-dividend this morning.

Overnight drivers

• The US 10-year eased off a two-year high: 4.818% intraday, a level last seen in November 2023, then a close near 4.78%. That one input ended a three-session Wall Street slide. Australian rate-sensitive names fell hardest on Wednesday and start from a lower base: WTC.AU -5.16%, GMG.AU -2.99%, XRO.AU -2.47%.
• Oil stopped rising. Brent settled at US$95.29 (+0.68%) and WTI at US$90.72 (+0.55%), a fraction of the 5.38% single-session jump Brent posted earlier this week on fresh US strikes on Iran. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright put Monday's Strait of Hormuz traffic above 17 million barrels, the most since the war began in late February. WDS.AU gained 1.16% and STO.AU 0.36% on Wednesday.
• Gold took back most of Tuesday's 2.57% drop, closing at US$4,388.48/oz, up 1.38%. NEM.US rose 2.06% overnight. ASX gold names had gone the other way a session earlier: NST.AU -4.69%, EVN.AU -1.94%.
• Iron ore is the exception. At US$97.72/t, -1.62%, it spent a second session under US$100 and gives the local miners nothing after Wednesday's falls in BHP.AU (-3.28%), FMG.AU (-4.60%) and RIO.AU (-1.48%).

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,666.60 (+0.46%)
• Nasdaq: 26,217.83 (+0.45%)
• Dow: 53,061.95 (+0.56%)
• Russell 2000: 2,953.17 (+1.13%)
• VIX: 15.20 (-6.98%)

The Russell 2000 beat all three headline indices and the VIX fell 6.98% to 15.20, so the bid reached well past the largest stocks. Those largest stocks sat it out. MSFT.US fell 0.84% and was the biggest point drag on the Dow, AAPL.US slipped 0.05%, and PANW.US dropped 9.28% to US$328.48 as the weakest S&P 500 name despite beating on its fourth-quarter result. With an hour of trading left, nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher, materials leading at +1.6% and real estate lagging at -0.6%.

ADP private payrolls rose 38,000 in August against a 47,000 consensus, the smallest monthly gain since January. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book described growth as modest and price increases as moderate, with business contacts citing uncertainty over energy prices and the Iran conflict. New York Fed President John Williams said the yield rise reflects a strong economy rather than market dysfunction, and would not commit on a September hike.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,388.48/oz (+1.38%)
• Brent: US$95.29 (+0.68%)
• WTI: US$90.72 (+0.55%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$97.72/t (-1.62%)
• Copper: US$6.5159/lb (+0.14%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7171 (+0.31%)

Iron ore under US$100 and copper within 0.14% of unchanged give the local miners no offshore lift. The AUD at 0.7171 is its firmest in three sessions, against a US dollar index down 0.09% to 99.577 and Australian yields climbing faster than US ones.

Key themes for ASX open

• Yields are the local story, and they point the other way to Wall Street. Australia's 10-year hit 5.223% on Wednesday, a 15-year high, and now sits above the US 10-year at 4.78%. The move followed June quarter GDP of 0.4% for the quarter and 2.1% for the year, both above the 0.3% and 1.8% consensus, with trimmed mean inflation steady at 3.6%. Markets price a 57% chance of an RBA hike this month and have more than fully priced November.
• BHP.AU trades ex-dividend today for $1.392 per share fully franked, payable 23 September. That is 2.15% of Wednesday's $64.65 close and comes out of the price at the open, so a fall of roughly that size is the dividend rather than selling. AMC.AU, COL.AU, RHC.AU and WDS.AU also go ex-dividend, which subtracts from the cash index without subtracting from the futures.
• Banks held while resources sold on Wednesday. CBA.AU (+0.11%), NAB.AU (+0.21%), ANZ.AU (+0.46%) and WBC.AU (+0.09%) all finished higher against BHP.AU -3.28% and FMG.AU -4.60%. Higher rates widen bank margins and discount long-duration earnings harder, and the session sorted the index along that line.
• The 0.97% fall was shallower than most of the region. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 2.85% lower at 64,325.64, South Korea's Kospi fell 3.99% to 6,562.72 and mainland China's CSI 300 lost 1.38% to 4,547.96. Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished 0.07% lower at 25,311.21.

Economic calendar

• Today: no scheduled ABS release. June quarter national accounts landed on Wednesday.
• Today: AMC.AU, BHP.AU, COL.AU, RHC.AU and WDS.AU trade ex-dividend.
• Fri 22:30 AEST: US August employment report, consensus about 50,000 to 55,000 payrolls with unemployment at 4.1%.

What to watch

• Whether the five ex-dividend names account for the gap between the 39 point futures call and the cash open.
• Whether the Australian 10-year holds above 5.20% after Wednesday's 15-year high, and whether the bank and REIT split repeats.
• Iron ore at US$97.72/t, a second session under US$100, against BHP.AU and FMG.AU opening on an ex-dividend adjustment.

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