ASX 200 set to open 37 points lower as Warsh's inflation warning lifts Fed hike odds and sinks gold 2.9%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.4%

The S&P/ASX 200 is indicated to open 37 points or 0.4% lower on Monday 31 August 2026 from Friday's 9,092.3 close, after Fed chair Warsh told Jackson Hole that inflation is running too high and that price stability is the central bank's predominant focus, moving fed funds futures to about a 50% chance of a September hike. Nvidia NVDA.US fell 4.57% to US$217.55 and was the largest drag on a Nasdaq that lost only 0.52%, because Apple AAPL.US rose 1.63% and Microsoft MSFT.US 1.68% against it. Gold settled 2.9% lower at US$4,529.9 an ounce on that same hawkish repricing, and it lands on an ASX gold sector that closed Friday higher and has not yet traded the move.

Overnight drivers

• Fed repricing: the US 2-year Treasury yield rose more than 6 basis points to 4.298% and the 10-year sits at 4.72%, up 4.8 basis points. Australian 10-year paper is already at 5.088%, and the July CPI print of 3.5% headline with a 3.6% trimmed mean leaves the local curve exposed to the same argument Warsh made.
• Gold -2.9% to US$4,529.9 an ounce: Newmont NEM.US fell 3.26% to US$127.98 and bullion has eased a further 0.38% to US$4,512.5 since the settle. Silver fell 1.03% to US$67.09.
• Brent +1.86% to US$89.74: crude reopened higher after the weekend passed without the Strait of Hormuz reopening agreement that was being priced on Friday, when Brent settled 0.43% lower at US$88.10 and booked a weekly loss of more than 5%. WTI is US$84.92, up 1.82%.
• Russell 2000 -1.39% against the S&P 500's -0.25%: the selling concentrated in small caps and rate-sensitive stocks rather than large caps. JPMorgan JPM.US rose 0.96% as the 2-year yield climbed.

Overnight Wall Street

The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76 on Friday 28 August 2026, down 0.25%, with one stock and the small-cap index accounting for the fall rather than the broad market.

• S&P 500: 7,711.76 (-0.25%)
• Nasdaq: 26,402.42 (-0.52%)
• Dow: 53,559.99 (-0.02%)
• Russell 2000: 2,972.37 (-1.39%)
• VIX: 14.43 (-0.55%)

NVDA.US at -4.57% accounts for almost all of the Nasdaq's 0.52% fall, while AAPL.US (+1.63%) and MSFT.US (+1.68%) both closed higher. That makes Friday a rates event and a single-stock event, not a broad equity de-rating. The VIX at 14.43 fell 0.55%. Chevron CVX.US rose 1.05%, holding the Dow's loss to 0.02%.

Commodities and FX

• Gold: US$4,512.5/oz (-0.38% since Friday's US$4,529.9 settle, itself 2.9% lower on the day)
• Brent: US$89.74 (+1.86%)
• WTI: US$84.92 (+1.82%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$95.84/t (+0.17%, 28 August)
• Copper: US$6.64/lb (-0.23%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7164 (-0.46%)

Gold has fallen on two consecutive legs while Brent has added 1.86% since Friday's settle, and gold carries the larger ASX weighting of the two. Iron ore at US$95.84 a tonne moved 0.17% on the day and is 2.47% lower over the past month. The AUD at 0.7164 is 0.46% weaker, which lifts the Australian dollar value of USD-denominated earnings for CSL.AU, which closed Friday 0.90% lower at $172.32.

Key themes for the ASX open

• NST.AU, GMD.AU and RRL.AU closed Friday before bullion fell: they finished at $24.78 (+1.81%), $8.57 (+2.63%) and $8.61 (+1.29%) respectively, so none of Friday night's 2.9% gold decline is in those prices. EVN.AU (-0.06%) and CMM.AU (-0.69%) were already flat to lower on Friday.
• WDS.AU at $32.27 and STO.AU at $8.12 closed up 0.84% and 0.74% into a Brent price now 1.86% above Friday's settle. BPT.AU added 1.78% to $0.860.
• CBA.AU rose 1.48% to $157.25 and NAB.AU 0.82% to $38.29 on Friday, with ANZ.AU up 0.74% and WBC.AU 0.65%. A higher local curve at 5.088% works in two directions for the majors, lifting margin on new lending while raising the cost of the deposit book.
• ANN.AU, ILU.AU, PNI.AU and AZJ.AU trade ex-dividend this morning, which subtracts from the index arithmetically rather than through selling. AZJ.AU pays 10.5 cents per share on 23 September.
• XRO.AU (+4.78% to $85.64) and WTC.AU (+2.68% to $40.61) led Friday's local session and are the longest-duration large caps on the index, which puts them closest to the overnight move in US yields.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: ABS Business Indicators, June quarter (company profits and inventories, both inputs to Wednesday's national accounts)
• 11:30 AEST: ABS Mineral and Petroleum Exploration, June quarter
• 11:30 AEST: China NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for August

What to watch

• The pre-open note quotes the SPI at 37 points lower, while the September contract settled at 9,012.5, some 79.8 points below Friday's cash close. That discount tracks August and September dividend season rather than direction, which is why the two readings disagree by roughly 48 points.
• China's August PMI at 11:30 AEST is the only scheduled release today that can move the iron majors BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU, which closed Friday at +1.36%, -0.37% and +2.09%.
• Australian Q2 GDP arrives Wednesday 2 September at 11:30 AEST, with the balance of payments and the net exports contribution on Tuesday 1 September. The RBA does not meet again until 28 and 29 September.
• Brent added 1.86% after the ASX had closed and after the SPI had settled, so the opening hour is the first chance any local energy stock has had to price it.

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