ASX 200 set to open 1% lower as Brent tops US$102 and the Fed call flips to a hike

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -1.0%

SPI futures point to the S&P/ASX 200 opening about 88 points or 1% lower on 10 September 2026, after Brent crude gained 3.8% through Wednesday's US session and kept rising to US$102.06 a barrel by 8:30 AEST, and the US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.837%. META.US closed up 6.55% at $653.69 after launching Muse, an autonomous AI agent sold on a tiered $20 and $100 monthly subscription. The oil move lands five days before the 15 to 16 September FOMC meeting, where a 25 basis point increase has replaced a hold as the expected outcome.

Overnight drivers

• Crude: Brent US$102.06 at 8:30 AEST, up 0.84% on top of Wednesday's 3.8% US-session gain, with WTI at US$97.11, after US and Iranian forces struck each other's tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Woodside WDS.AU and Santos STO.AU sell that barrel. Qantas QAN.AU buys the jet fuel refined from it.
• US rates: the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.837%, up 3 basis points. Traders moved the September FOMC call from hold to a 25 basis point hike after the oil rally, because energy feeds the August CPI print due Friday. Commonwealth Bank CBA.AU, National Australia Bank NAB.AU, Scentre SCG.AU and Goodman GMG.AU reprice against that yield.
• Europe closed worse than the US: FTSE 100 -1.31% to 10,670.06 and STOXX 600 -1.41% to 640.41, against the S&P 500 at -0.48%. The SPI's 1% gap sits closer to Europe's fall than to Wall Street's.
• Gold went nowhere: GC=F at US$4,446.80, down 0.31%. Northern Star NST.AU, Newmont NEM.AU and Evolution EVN.AU open with no commodity move behind them.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,636.36 (-0.48%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,253.34 (-0.64%)
• Dow Jones: 52,380.66 (-0.77%)
• Russell 2000: 2,921.23 (-1.32%)
• VIX: 16.46 (+4.71%)

The Russell 2000 at -1.32% fell nearly three times as far as the S&P 500, the usual pattern when the 10-year yield rises. Boeing BA.US -2.05%, UnitedHealth UNH.US -1.94% and Caterpillar CAT.US -0.84% led the Dow to -0.77%, the weakest of the three headline indices.

META.US +6.55%, Marvell MRVL.US +4.26%, AMD.US +3.04% and Micron MU.US +2.75% lifted the PHLX Semiconductor index 0.37%. Alphabet GOOGL.US -2.28%, Amazon AMZN.US -1.78%, Broadcom AVGO.US -1.13% and Nvidia NVDA.US -0.91% took the composite the other way. Energy rose across the board: Exxon XOM.US +2.22%, Chevron CVX.US +1.91%, Valero VLO.US +1.59%.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Brent: US$102.06 (+0.84% at 8:30 AEST, after +3.8% in Wednesday's US session)
• WTI: US$97.11
• Gold: US$4,446.80/oz (-0.31%)
• Copper: US$6.858/lb (-0.44%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7222 (-0.01%)
• ICE US Dollar Index: 98.783 (flat)

AUD/USD held at 0.7222 through the oil rally. Australia exports energy, so a two-day Brent gain of that size usually lifts the currency; it did not, and AUD/JPY fell 0.33% to 110.685. Copper at US$6.858/lb, down 0.44%, adds nothing for BHP.AU or South32 S32.AU after Wednesday's local rally.

Key themes for ASX open

• BHP.AU +3.25%, Woodside WDS.AU +2.60%, Sandfire SFR.AU +2.00%, Rio Tinto RIO.AU +1.89% and Santos STO.AU +1.31% rose on Wednesday while the index still closed down 0.11% at 8,911.4.
• Commonwealth Bank CBA.AU -2.17%, National Australia Bank NAB.AU -1.54%, Xero XRO.AU -3.53%, REA Group REA.AU -2.23%, WiseTech WTC.AU -2.04% and Cochlear COH.AU -3.11% fell the same day, which is the split the index hid.
• 8,911.4 is a six-week low for the S&P/ASX 200, reached on a 0.11% fall because resources covered most of the rate-sensitive damage. Today's 1% SPI gap is wider than that cover.
• AU VIX at 11.75, down 1.81%, implies a typical daily move near 0.7%, below the 1% gap the SPI is pricing.
• Breville BRG.AU, Perpetual PPT.AU, Sandfire SFR.AU and Spark New Zealand SPK.AU trade without their dividend from this morning, which lowers each price at the open by the dividend amount.

Economic calendar today

• No ABS statistical release is scheduled for 10 September 2026, and the RBA calendar carries no speech or publication today.
• 11:30 AEST 11 September: ABS Labour Account Australia (June quarter), Overseas Arrivals and Departures (July) and Multiple job-holders (June quarter).
• 22:30 AEST 11 September: US August CPI, consensus 3.4%. The FOMC meets four days after it.

What to watch

• Wednesday's 0.11% index fall covered a two-way session. A 1% gap that arrives with BHP.AU and WDS.AU also lower is a different session from one where they hold.
• 4.35% is the cash rate after three increases in 2026 and no change since August, with the next RBA decision on 29 September. July headline inflation of 3.5% came in above the 3.2% economists expected, so US$102 Brent feeds a domestic question as well as an American one.
• Volume through BRG.AU, PPT.AU, SFR.AU and SPK.AU, where the price drop at the open is the dividend rather than a fresh bid or offer.

Context only, not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.